[ackackack]

Olecapt: "I would cross this off as a fluke"

Foreclosure auction, July real estate numbers, and lenders tightening their belts (the latest example Wells Fargo raising their jumbo rates to 8%). July's results are pretty alarming. Try telling a home buyer that those numbers are just a fluke, or tell that to the bank you are trying to borrow money from. If I were crazy and buying in this market I would only care about the most recent data since it has only been getting worse.
Inventories are still climbing and sales were in the toilet, 1,300. With close to 30,000 on the market how long will this fluke continue?
Nevermind all that fluke data though, if lenders are going to continue to freak out, how are people going to sell their homes to begin with? Who care what the selling price is if a bank won't lend you the money to purchase it.

[olecapt]

Originally Posted by ackackack

Olecapt: "I would cross this off as a fluke"

Foreclosure auction, July real estate numbers, and lenders tightening their belts (the latest example Wells Fargo raising their jumbo rates to 8%). July's results are pretty alarming. Try telling a home buyer that those numbers are just a fluke, or tell that to the bank you are trying to borrow money from. If I were crazy and buying in this market I would only care about the most recent data since it has only been getting worse.
Inventories are still climbing and sales were in the toilet, 1,300. With close to 30,000 on the market how long will this fluke continue?
Nevermind all that fluke data though, if lenders are going to continue to freak out, how are people going to sell their homes to begin with? Who care what the selling price is if a bank won't lend you the money to purchase it.

Please don't quote out of context like that. Your are arguing with what you want me to say...not what I said.

The overall movement of the median single family residence was about 3% down. And it may well be a price break. Too soon to tell yet, Inventory is clearly leveling off and will go down a good bit over the next four or five months. Then we will see if it come right back again come spring.

I completed a stated income loan for a little condo two weeks ago. I have a first time borrower getting 100% financing closing in 9 days. I have an older deal with 100% closing this week. I will close both I expect.

Loan standards are higher but that are not impossible particularly in the low end of the market. That seems to be the pattern. Both the bottom half and the top 10% are doing much better than the middle.

[ackackack]

Not arguing with you. I just had a chuckle when I saw you suggested the July stats may be a "fluke." I'm not a realtor basher either. We need you, especially right now. Lately all the news is bad, and realtors are great at seeing the silver lining, so you are providing a good service.

[olecapt]

Originally Posted by ackackack

Not arguing with you. I just had a chuckle when I saw you suggested the July stats may be a "fluke." I'm not a realtor basher either. We need you, especially right now. Lately all the news is bad, and realtors are great at seeing the silver lining, so you are providing a good service.

There is no silver lining in this market for RE Agents...it sucks big time. We really care very little about up or down. We do care about velocity...how many sales per month. And that number is at 5 year or more low.

The fluke comment deals with the fact that the median price on single family homes has held in a 10K range for over 18 months. At least until July it has just not moved at all. If you want to be a purist there was likely a small drop due to inflation and increased spifs...but no real motion. The drop in July however is a substantial one and could be the first of a series of such drops.

The next few months will tell.

[ParkTwain]

Hudson & Marshall - sale number 5*-*las vegas, nevada*-*properties:501 - 591 (http://tinyurl.com/3dro3x - broken link)

There were about 100 homes to be auctioned, and the news reported that 78 were sold. Lots of these homes are in Henderson, N. Las Vegas, and extreme northwest Las Vegas (way out 95). A few are found in the southwest section of the city near the 215 beltway.

I see one home in this list described as being in Summerlin (at 8613 Mirada Del Sol - Las Vegas, Nevada). But I don't believe it actually is in Summerlin because it's east of Rampart and north of Vegas Dr. Zillow.com shows an estimated market value for this home of $495K.

[ParkTwain]

Originally Posted by olecapt

Both the bottom half and the top 10% are doing much better than the middle.

What is defined as the top 10%? 800K and up?

[dude66]

Housing Market to Weaken Even Further As Mortgage Industry Takes Cure


"This week is going to be a nightmare," says Melissa Cohn, chief executive of Manhattan Mortgage in New York. Lenders are scaling back so fast that it isn't clear which loans are available or on what terms, and rates are jumping even on large loans, known as jumbos, for prime borrowers.

mod cut: text removed

Housing Market to Weaken Even Further As Mortgage Industry Takes Cure - WSJ.com (broken link)

[olecapt]

Originally Posted by ParkTwain

Hudson & Marshall - sale number 5*-*las vegas, nevada*-*properties:501 - 591 (http://tinyurl.com/3dro3x - broken link)

There were about 100 homes to be auctioned, and the news reported that 78 were sold. Lots of these homes are in Henderson, N. Las Vegas, and extreme northwest Las Vegas (way out 95). A few are found in the southwest section of the city near the 215 beltway.

I see one home in this list described as being in Summerlin (at 8613 Mirada Del Sol - Las Vegas, Nevada). But I don't believe it actually is in Summerlin because it's east of Rampart and north of Vegas Dr. Zillow.com shows an estimated market value for this home of $495K.

That is Summerlin..and that home is in a very nice tract. Summerlin extends to Buffalo between Lake Mead and Vegas. Village is the Pueblo.

[olecapt]

Originally Posted by ParkTwain

What is defined as the top 10%? 800K and up?

Its a soft boundary. Around $650K last time I looked.

[TerpsandHorns]

I had a mild case of indigestion looking at today's rates (08/06/07)

Even with the recent drawback of the stock market and lowered yields on gov't securities...Alt A Rates skyrocketed again..

Indicators of the past don't even work. I fully expected correspondent drops in rates with the drops in the 10 year yield number. Historically it had always been the case that mortgage rates were loosely in line with the 10 year yield curve.

Nope..

ALT A rates are joining the subprime swoon. The spread betweeen Alt A rates and FNMA rates is at a 5 year high with today's pullback.

Subprime rates were one thing, but when rates and programs for A credit borrowers get scaled back...we are on the verge of a full-scale crisis.

FNMA and Freddie Mac insured rates/loans are still fine. But Alt A is a product that is almost FNMA level. We aren't talking about bad credit risky loans... Wall street isn't buying ALT A loans and certainly not subprime loans.

Unless it is a FNMA, Freddie Mac, FHA, or VA backed loan, it might continue to get worse.

It doesnt matter what home prices are if lenders simply cannot find money to lend. We might be heading back to the days of 20% cash down for first time homebuyers.

I just hope the current "credit crisis" accelerates. It is probably better for all involved to just have it all collapse at once rather than this slow spiralling descent. The recovery will be quicker after it hits bottom fast.