[jfkIII]

olecapt...there ARE other RE people on this forum...this guy (T&H) has to be one...and ParkTwain? No?

[ParkTwain]

I've been amazed that the press hasn't discussed the role of buyers who had used IRS Section 1031 swaps to purchase an enormous number of properties. The swaps allow previous capital gains to be rolled into new RE purchases, as long as are swapping for more parcels/homes/units than you sold. An amazing rule! And you can bet that late in the boom, these RE wunderkinder were swapping like mad using zero/low down payment and ARM mortgage deals, just to get into the deals. This MIGHT mean that a great number of the highly publicized foreclosures are (a) hitting primarily investors who (b) overextended themselves to take advantage of 1031 swaps. It might be the truth that the majority of the foreclosure problems are the result of the activities of a relatively SMALL number of RE players. I wish that this aspect was being reported on. I had always figured that the existence of this capital gain loophole would encourage a pyramiding of RE transaction that would end badly when the music stopped.

[olecapt]

Originally Posted by jfkIII

olecapt...there ARE other RE people on this forum...this guy (T&H) has to be one...and ParkTwain? No?

He may be a mortgage guy...his contribution tends to be only on the financial downturn. I don't think he is in Vegas...but ask him.

ParkTwain is a local...but I don't think he is in the RE business. PT?

[jfkIII]

So terps...what is it...a mortgage guy or RE agent (or soemthing else?) Your posts give the impression that 'you're in the know' with the housing market, resales, etc.

[ParkTwain]

I'm not in the RE business in any way.

[ackackack]

olecapt, even if you didn't advertise your RE services it would be quite obvious that you are a realtor. You tend to revise your outlook gradually. Now it appears that things will only be bad until the Spring? I hope you are right, but unfortunately I don't see how it's going to suddenly pick up, or at least stabilize any time in the forseable future. This country doesn't even know the full impact of the whole credit fiasco yet, so what makes you think the end (or beginning) is near? I'm curious because all the news I hear is not good, and getting worse.

The bit about builders being near zero inventory is interesting. I haven't heard that one yet, so I'm gonna pull a classic olecapt here and say, "show me a stat to prove it!" I don't think a quote from the NAR will suffice either. Your other comment, "And don't count on a declining price. Sure it is going down." confuses me. Do you think prices will continue downward or not? I'm interested in your spin because what I find doesn't look good, and I'm not sure where the buyers with assets are going to come from. Another ting that troubles me is the first time home buyer. It looks like home buying will be like the good ol' days of 5 to 10% down, excellent credit, and verified work history and income to get into a home. How many first time home buyers are going to be able to swing this in the future, especially considering that this whole country went nuts and decided that they weren't going to buy ANYTHING unless they charged it. I don't mean to keep piling on, but your kind have a target on your backs these days, and I always find it interesting how various groups interpret stats.

[gulfer]

Two words - Zip Realty! I watch this one all the time and amazed at the changes in prices on these places. The other day one had decreased in asking price from 360K - 280K as it sat on the market for over 5 months. Was the listing price first unrealistic? Probably, but now looking like just getting the money out before the ARM resets.

[dude66]

Today's headline:

Existing Home Sales Fall in 41 States: Financial News - Yahoo! Finance (broken link)


"The states suffering the biggest drop in sales in the second quarter, compared to the same period a year ago, were Florida, down 41.3 percent, and Nevada, down 37.5 percent."

[dude66]

Foreclosure rates for top 10 metro areas.
Rate Rank MSA Foreclosure Filings 1 filing for every #HH

1 STOCKTON, CA 8,169 27 256
2 DETROIT/LIVONIA/DEARBORN, MI 28,705 29 99
3 LAS VEGAS/PARADISE, NV 22,928 31 142
4 RIVERSIDE/SAN BERNARDINO, CA 41,351 33 198
5 SACRAMENTO, CA 20,516 36 241
6 DENVER/AURORA, CO 23,842 42 11
7 MIAMI, FL 20,275 46 74
8 BAKERSFIELD, CA 5,365 47 222
9 MEMPHIS, TN 10,800 49 17
10 CLEVELAND/LORAIN/ELYRIA/MENTOR, OH 18,844 50 106

[TerpsandHorns]

I am a mortgage guy.

Thanks for asking...

I am not trying to be negative on purpose. I have very selfish reasons for the market to be booming in all states. If Nevada takes off again, you better believe I will have my hand in as many loan applications as possible.

I have access to a lot of the secondary market spending. I know which funds are buying what mortgage backed stuff. The answer is pretty much nobody is buying mortgage stuff. I have so much bad paper sitting on my warehouse credit lines that I cannot sell them at any stock exchange spread.

Basically the conduits of correspondent brokering is on hold for a while. Wholesale brokering is touch and go.

I just think it is completely counterproductive to keep trying to put postive spins on this downward cycle. I really believe that an accelerated crash will help the healing much faster than constant revising. Let the market hit bottom in a hurry...rather than prolong the agony..

For over a year now, the experts have tried to put a rosy landing on the collapse. Some of the early fall 2007 estimates are obviously not even close.

The only good news that I foresee is that Freddie Mac is loosening its Alt-A standards just a bit. But, they can only handle so much loan activity.

And maybe the Fed is going to lower rates a quarter of a point in september...that will help the "A" credit borrowers...

..... but this headlines hurts the most today..

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