Every time the stock market reaches a new high, the pundits say it is too expensive.... (short-term, worth)

[jrkliny]

Originally Posted by mathjak107

the last 20 years we have had a major drop every 7-8 years .

Since the 70s, we have had two major drips in the markets, 2002 and 2008. That is it and the facts are readily verifiable by looking at something like the DJIA: https://www.google.com/finance?cid=983582


Just set the zoom button to "All".

[mathjak107]

major bear markets


1929-1932 down 86.1 %

1968-to 1970 down 26%

1973-1974 down 28%

1987 down 34%

2000-2002 down 50%

2007-2009 down 56.4%

[hikernut]

Originally Posted by mathjak107

major bear markets


1929-1932 down 86.1 %

1968-to 1970 down 26%

1973-1974 down 28%

1987 down 34%

2000-2002 down 50%

2007-2009 down 56.4%

'73-'74 was roughly 50%, if we're talking peak to trough.

Any any rate, your list shows there is no predicable time period of 8 years, or any other number.

[lchoro]

Originally Posted by hikernut

'73-'74 was roughly 50%, if we're talking peak to trough.

Any any rate, your list shows there is no predicable time period of 8 years, or any other number.

It used to be approximately four. 1974, 1978, 1982, 1986, 1990, 1994, 1998, 2002, 2006, 2010. 2014, 2018, and so on. Sometimes, the bull markets got stretched, such as 1982-1987, or compressed as in 1987-1990. With more activist central banks in recent years, it's lengthened the period between bear markets and some of the above turned out to be benign dates.

[jrkliny]

Originally Posted by mathjak107

major bear markets


1929-1932 down 86.1 %

1968-to 1970 down 26%

1973-1974 down 28%

1987 down 34%

2000-2002 down 50%

2007-2009 down 56.4%

I am still missing the 7-8 year cycles. Those intervals are 36, 3, 13, 13, and 5.


Anyway the last four correspond to times when I was changing jobs. Now that I am retired we should be OK.

[mathjak107]

those were the worst ones , we had other down years and the last 20 years they say they are every 7 -8 years . 1987 was a bad one , 1994 was down, 2001 down , 2008

[cfa-ish]

If you believe that fundamentals matter...
If not, good luck.

Here are the actual TTM earnings for the S&P 500 index:
(data from S&P 500 PE Ratio)

Mar 31, 2016 87.35
Dec 31, 2015 88.04
Dec 31, 2014 104.85
Dec 31, 2013 103.47
Dec 31, 2012 90.67
Dec 31, 2011 92.72
Dec 31, 2010 84.93

Notice anything different between 2015-2016 and the previous years?
Current S&P 500 PE Ratio: 25.02 as of 4:09 pm EDT, Wed Sep 21
Mean: 15.61
Median: 14.64

[FREE866]

Originally Posted by cfa-ish

If you believe that fundamentals matter...
If not, good luck.

Here are the actual TTM earnings for the S&P 500 index:
(data from S&P 500 PE Ratio)

Mar 31, 2016 87.35
Dec 31, 2015 88.04
Dec 31, 2014 104.85
Dec 31, 2013 103.47
Dec 31, 2012 90.67
Dec 31, 2011 92.72
Dec 31, 2010 84.93

Notice anything different between 2015-2016 and the previous years?
Current S&P 500 PE Ratio: 25.02 as of 4:09 pm EDT, Wed Sep 21
Mean: 15.61
Median: 14.64

Fundamentals do matter. The S&P 500’s average forward-looking P/E ratio going back to just 2000 (including two market cycles and counting) is 16.26, just slightly below current levels.

[FREE866]

Today several more companies beat estimates and there was another large acquisition in the housing market. Great sign for stocks! Doesn't mean we can't always have corrections, but this markets still has legs

[Just Plain Curious]

There has been about six different corrections of more than 10% since the bull market bottomed in 2009. Each time the media says this is it, we are going into another 2007-2009 type bear market. Everyone gets scared and then a few months later we are back to record index numbers.