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That's surely a possibility, but there's an equal chance the market could zig zag or go much higher.
How do you know there is an "equal chance"? Your comments are a bit contradictory as on one hand you claim you can't predict matters and then on the other you are suggesting that the chance that the market goes up is 50%. The fact is the economy is in trouble and the market has a lot of downward pressure, you don't need a crystal ball to know this.
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This is all "noise" and will be forgotten soon enough just like any other past event.
So I guess your crystal ball is working after all? If we fall into a depression or even a severe-recession (9%+ unemployment etc) it will not be forgotten anytime soon.
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I do my gambling in Vegas, not timing the market.
Sorry, but you are indeed gambling on the timings of the market. Not pulling out your money because you think the markets will correct themselves within time is little different then pulling money out of the market because you think the declines are more than just "noise". Only time will tell which strategy works better.
I can't predict which way things will go and neither can you. Tell me w/100% certainty, where will the dow be at the end of the year?? You don't know and you can't predict w/certainty. Even high paid economists can't do it w/a high degree of accuracy consistently.
You say the market has a lot of 'downward pressure'. LOL, so what? Again, your crystal ball is as cloudy as mine.
And yes, to answer your question. My strategy of "buy and hold", ignore the noise, w/yearly rebalancing has done just fine, thank you.... I don't market time and I never met one who was successful over the long term.
IF we fall into a severe-recession/depression...IF, IF, IF....doesn't sound to convincing to me. Just a prediction....you don't know.
What is your point exactly? Its about economic forecasting. So called chaotic systems are very hard to predict in the large term, that does not mean you cannot determine which events are more likely than others. Anyhow its not about "100% certainty" its about probability. Its more probable that the market goes down at the comment.
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Again, your crystal ball is as cloudy as mine.
I guess this is the problem huh? You are using a crystal ball and I'm basing my actions on reasoned economic analysis.
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IF we fall into a severe-recession/depression...IF, IF, IF....doesn't sound to convincing to me. Just a prediction....you don't know.
You don't seem to get it, I'm not making any predictions I'm making a point. It is possible that we go into a severe-recession, if such an event happens then what we'll see is much more than "noise". If you happen to invest at the peak of the market before the depression it would take you over 20 years to break even. So, if you want to keep your money in the market that is fine, just don't pretend that you aren't gambling. You are. You happen to be predicting that what we are seeing is "just noise" in the market and the market will behave as it has in the last 30-40 years.
Seems to me that the stock market goes down every time it looks like Obama has a chance to win the presidency.
The market at this time cares not a wink about politics,it has massive liquidity issues to cope with,any market moves due to presidential changes usually don't last,instead,it will take time to see how effective the incoming administration is in getting its economic agenda through congress and what those policies are,and spare me the rhetoric,dubya came in under the cloak of a fiscal conservative,with a budget surplus to boot,we know where that went!
I had to laugh because ... one of the market commentators just the day before was claiming we'd hit bottom ...
These market crashes almost always take two years to reach bottom and we're only a few months into this bear market. You do get these temporary rallies but ... the overall trend is down.
The Fed may have headed off a dramatic market crash but ... what we're typically going to see is slow, gradual drops with essentially the same result ... a much lower market.
There's just too much bad news on the horizon. Corporate profits are down ... pretty much across the board. Many more adjustable mortgages will reset this year so ... that story isn't going to go away for awhile. Gas prices are still way too high. The list goes on and on ...
2008 will be a bad year but, I think 2009 will be the year to start buying stocks again. By then stocks will be really cheap and there will be some great bargains.
That's surely a possibility, but there's an equal chance the market could zig zag or go much higher. I'd let you know which way it will go, but my crystal ball is too cloudy to tell me. Fact is, no one knows.
I think I'll take it steady as she goes for the next 20 years. This is all "noise" and will be forgotten soon enough just like any other past event.
I do my gambling in Vegas, not timing the market.
Equal chance the market will zig zag or go much higher? That's pretty funny.
Sorry Jack but, you've been saying this for weeks now and the market is still going down.
Humanoid is right, you're wrong. It will literally take years to recover the value you're losing in stocks right now.
As for me ... I'm comfortably out of stocks right now and and VERY glad I am out of the market.
Actually, you're the one who's gambling .... on a sure loser.
If you happen to invest at the peak of the market before the depression it would take you over 20 years to break even. So, if you want to keep your money in the market that is fine, just don't pretend that you aren't gambling. You are. You happen to be predicting that what we are seeing is "just noise" in the market and the market will behave as it has in the last 30-40 years.
Equal chance the market will zig zag or go much higher? That's pretty funny.
Sorry Jack but, you've been saying this for weeks now and the market is still going down.
Humanoid is right, you're wrong. It will literally take years to recover the value you're losing in stocks right now.
As for me ... I'm comfortably out of stocks right now and and VERY glad I am out of the market.
Actually, you're the one who's gambling .... on a sure loser.
Give me the names of successful investors who advocate market timing and I'll give you a 100 who are against your philosophy.
The sad part is that people will actually follow what you say and try to time the market which is a losers game. Its funny that you think your actually smarter than the market.
I'm a long term investor w/a 20-30 yr time horizon and I'll take my previous gains and let them compound over time building up wealth while you try to "predict" when to get in and get out. Sounds like a successful strategy. Good luck!
And again, you fail to answer direct questions....
Tell me w/100% certainty where will the Nasdaq, Dow, & S&P finish up this year. Also, give me monthly updates w/100% accuracy....Oh wait, you're all SURE that the "market" will be down for years! Wait, is that ALL equity indecies? Is it REITS as well? Is it emerging markets, preciuos metals? How about intermidiate bonds?
Give me your "predictions" for each sector so I can adjust my AA accordingly.....
Guarantee specific answers will be avoided again & I'll hear crickets chirping..
Last summer when the Dow nearly hit 14,000 I got out stocks because I figured we were going to go into bear market. The market actually went a little higher than 14,000 in October but, it's been downhill ever since.
So ... I was about three months off but, obviously, I'm not complaining in light of what's happening now. At least I was ahead of the curve and got out a few months before the downslide.
Obviously I didn't predict the market with 100 percent certainty BUT ... I did protect myself against a ton of lost equity that would take years for me to recover if I had stayed in the market.
As far as predicting sectors ... I don't do that. I invest in index funds because I'm much better at picking overall market trends than individual stocks and sectors. I let the index fund managers do that. I know what my strengths and weaknesses are as an investor.
As far as how low the Dow, etc. will go and when ... I dunno. That's not what I try to do. I just try to monitor for the bottom when it looks like the bad news has finally been flushed out and there are signs of good news on the horizon. My best guess is 2009 but, I won't know until then.
My only goal is to buy near the bottom and sell high while, at the same time, avoiding major equity losses.
Last summer when the Dow nearly hit 14,000 I got out stocks because I figured we were going to go into bear market. The market actually went a little higher than 14,000 in October but, it's been downhill ever since.
So ... I was about three months off but, obviously, I'm not complaining in light of what's happening now. At least I was ahead of the curve and got out a few months before the downslide.
Obviously I didn't predict the market with 100 percent certainty BUT ... I did protect myself against a ton of lost equity that would take years for me to recover if I had stayed in the market.
As far as predicting sectors ... I don't do that. I invest in index funds because I'm much better at picking overall market trends than individual stocks and sectors. I let the index fund managers do that. I know what my strengths and weaknesses are as an investor.
As far as how low the Dow, etc. will go and when ... I dunno. That's not what I try to do. I just try to monitor for the bottom when it looks like the bad news has finally been flushed out and there are signs of good news on the horizon. My best guess is 2009 but, I won't know until then.
My only goal is to buy near the bottom and sell high while, at the same time, avoiding major equity losses.
So far you timed the market correct. How about your misses? Many people like to show their hits but don't like to talk about their misses.
Again, we are on two totally different wavelengths. I've been investing for 15 years contributing to the max for my roth and 401k. I have an AA tailored to my risk tolerance and I've been very successful in the past following proven strategies....Are we due for a cooling off? Maybe...I don't know. Anyway, to me it doesn't matter and 20 years from now I won't remember...I'll just know that I'm purchasing shares for the long term...
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I don't market time and I never met one who was successful over the long term.
