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Ah, while that can look like cones, it’s NHC’s 7-day outlook and highlights (by color code based on low, medium or high % chance) where NHC believes development (depression or named storm) could occur in. Whatever forms in this case with 95L (likely at some point today or by tomorrow) is likely to reach the Eastern Caribbean Monday. Once one forms NHC would release their own cone map showing their forecast for next 5-days (if Tropical Storm winds were 48hrs from land then a PTC designation would allow for an early cone map release before storm forms as well). NHC’s actual cone map size is based on the last 5-year average error in their past forecast.
95L continues to look healthy and spin more. Likely TD / named storm shortly. Prolly just allowing it to align its centers more is all (has seemed a little titled / misaligned).
Friday 8pEDT 28Jun:
Atl:
-94L near Belize / Honduras with numerous scattered storms across a large region. Crosses Yucatan Saturday. In Bay of Campeche Sunday where has 40% chance tropical designation before pushing into Mexico.
-Area behind TD2: NHC with 40% chance develops in same region as TD2 towards middle of next week.
-TD2: Likely upgraded to TS tonight or early Sat. Hurricane / TS Watches will go out tonight or early AM as well. NHC with Cat1/2 moving near Barbados / St. Vincent / Grenadines / Grenada region Monday.
Sat 8pEDT 29Jun:
Atl:
-94L over Yucatan now, Bay of Campeche Sunday, moves W/WNW into Mexico by Monday. NHC 50%.
-Area behind Beryl 70% chance.
E Pac: Area S of Mexico low 30% chance.
Sun 2pEDT 30Jun
Atl:
-94L close to squeezing out TD status or maybe barely named, but moves inland to Mexico tonight with scattered rains. NHC 80% chance.
-96L the area behind Beryl at 70%. May follow Beryl into Windward Islands around Wednesday. Models not as bullish on intensity as they were with Beryl though.
Sun 8pEDT 30Jun:
Atl:
-94L organizes just enough for TD3 status. Gains just 5mph more and gets a name. But move into Mexico tonight as a rain maker either way.
-96L 70% behind Beryl.
E Pac: Area S of Mexico 40% chance.
8pEDT Tues 2July:
Atl: 96L nearing Windward islands kind of went 'poof'. NHC lowers to 20% chance. Still, scattered showers and gusty winds to the islands as tries to follow Beryl.
Epac: area just off SW Mexico coast 50%.
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