2024 Hurricane Season (General Thread - Atlantic, East/Central Pacific) (day, storms, predictions)

[elnina]

But that's pretty early, no?

[Psychoma]

Originally Posted by elnina

But that's pretty early, no?

Dates of first area mentioned by NHC (via Philippe Papin (NHC forecaster), each calendar year placed in month-day order; data 2010-2023 as NHC more regularly archived starting June 2009):
1-07-2016
1-16-2023
2-05-2012
4-17-2017
4-20-2011
4-24-2024 (this year)
5-01-2019
5-03-2015
5-04-2018
5-12-2020
5-19-2021
5-22-2022
5-23-2010

So yes early, but sloppy tropical / sub-tropical spinners aren’t unheard of. NHC is trying to get Atlantic hurricane season moved up to 15May but WMO still says no.

Waters are very warm in the MDR region for April, on par with around July average, and about 30 days ahead of 2023 water temps. Typical development for May/June is closer to US East coast / Eastern Gulf region (wind shear is currently high across all regions tho). MDR region is generally hostile to development this time of year (wind shear / dry air).

[LKJ1988]

Originally Posted by elnina

But that's pretty early, no?

Never get anything real this early. I want some action early in June with a stuck TS and hope 15" of rain. 5 years of no rain has really been bad,

[Cambium]

The Doomers must be devastated! It was fun while it lasted.

Tropical Atlantic main development area is not record breaking anymore.



https://twitter.com/catinsight/statu...83324939248038

[LKJ1988]

Dust will make it a bust for me again like last year.

[Psychoma]

First area mentioned by NHC for the East Pacific: scattered showers along a trough just S of Mexico / Guatemala with 0% chance next 2 days, 30% development chance next 7. Some blips in the models for it to develop as generally moves WNW. They will update this area again by 2p Tues or sooner.

NHC will begin daily East Pacific and Atlantic outlooks 4x / day starting this Wednesday (15May). E Pac season starts 15May, Atlantic starts 1Jun.

NOAA/NHC will issue their number of possible hurricanes numbers on 23May.

[Universe93B]

Is this the data that was shared earlier in the thread or another thread? Seems crazy! comparing to normally in August:

https://twitter.com/philklotzbach/st...7Ctwgr%5Etweet

[Psychoma]

Originally Posted by Universe93B

Is this the data that was shared earlier in the thread or another thread? Seems crazy! comparing to normally in August:

https://twitter.com/philklotzbach/st...7Ctwgr%5Etweet

Waters are toasty! And every little degree can matter to a Hurricane - about 80° to form (not including hybrid/sub-tropical/transitioning regular Lows) and about 85° supports Cat3 intensity.

Just one part of the equation tho.

[Psychoma]

8aEDT Fri 17May:
2 areas S of Mexico in East Pacific with low development chance currently, may get one to form next week as generally moves W/NW.

Atlantic quiet, in May typically watching Eastern Gulf of Mexico, Western/Central Caribbean and off the US East coast region. June this expands to all of Gulf of Mexico and wider region of Western Atlantic and more of Caribbean region.

[Brucifer]