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Well this is my first hurricane season in the keys.. should be fun.
As long as the ghost of Dorian doesn't pull any surprises you may be good for another week or two. After that... anybody's guess! Average peak season is mid-September, should start quieting down late October. Keys still on my bucket list to visit one day.
My last post of the day.
From the below thread we learn dry air (hinders storm) is getting into Western leading edge of storm, convection may not be wrapping fully around core (= young storm), don’t know if axis of spin aligned vertically or not (vertical = healthier storm). Need in storm air recon for better picture which flies thru storm Monday.
Mon 26Aug2019 5aEDT/AST,4aCDT: Estimated winds 60mph(95km/h), moving W 14mph(22km/h), pressure 1002mb. Located about 225miles(365km) ESE of Barbados, about 335miles(540km) ESE St. Lucia.
No surprises overnight. Air recon starts flying into storm later today. Because they’re time based issuance Watches will likely be posted for Puerto Rico later today.
Some of the models did shift more north overnight, which raises possibility of something surviving past Hispaniola. We'll see if a trend continues in models or not later today.
Mon 26Aug2019 11aEDT/AST,10aCDT: Estimated winds 60mph(95km/h), moving WNW 14mph(22km/h), pressure 1002mb. Located about 135miles(220km) ESE of Barbados, about 245miles(395km) ESE St. Lucia. Tropical Storm force winds go out up to 45miles(75km) from storm center.
No real changes, keeps pulsing convection and dry air seeping in keeping storm at slow and steady strengthening. Questions on exact track when nears Puerto Rico and Hispaniola...the further North closer to PR it stays the better chance it has to survive, the more over Hispaniola it goes the more weaker it should become. Also the storms structure/strength will be important as it will likely be fighting against a pocket of wind shear then as well then (high island mountains and wind shear hurt storms). Thereafter high pressure influence expected to come back in and push what remains towards Bahamas or Cuba direction and then....? Newest cone map from NHC has a restrengthening storm in the Bahamas but high uncertainty on intensity forecast that far out right now. Storm may survive, it may dissipate all together. Too early to know right now.
Hurricane hunter recon flies into storm regularly starting later today.
Watch/Warnings:
-Hurricane Watch St. Lucia
-Tropical Storm Warning Barbados, Martinique, St. Lucia, St. Vincent, Grenadines
-Tropical Storm Watch Dominica, Grenada and dependencies, Saba & St. Eustatius
[quote=Soccernerd;56022373]It will be interesting to see if Dorian follows the Bermuda High path and traces the coast of the eastern seaboard or if it heads in a more westwardly direction into the Gulf.QUOTE]
NO! Not into the Gulf. I'm still shell shocked from Irma 2 years ago.
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anybody's guess! Average peak season is mid-September, should start quieting down late October. Keys still on my bucket list to visit one day.
