If The South Had Won The Civil War... (Britain, 60s, Washington)
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I dont know a lot about the Civil War but I do know some things. I'm just curios as to where history buffs think the United States would be at today had the Confederacy won the Civil War? Naturaly slavery would have gone on longer than it did, but would it still be alive today? Don you think the Confederate states would be their own nation or do you think they would have eventualy joined the Union again? What would be different?
Actually, a scholar and a historian did write a book called about "If The South Had Won The Civil War" many years ago ... way back in the 1960s or 1970s I think.
Slavery would have eventually been abolished in the Confederate States Of America ... and even sooner than most people would guess, perhaps within 10 to 20 years after the Civil War. Slavery was being abolished all over the western hemisphere (like in Brazil) and the CSA would have followed that trend. Even during the Civil War many prominent Southerners (like Gen. Robert E. Lee) were not in favor of slavery.
I am afraid that even with the abolition of slavery, Blacks would have been second class citizens in the South without many civil rights ... oh, wait ... that happened anyway.
No, I don't think slavery would have been abolished if the South had of won the war and really don't understand what you base your speculation on. The South was dependent on slave labor for much of its agriculture and to think after they fought and won a bloody Civil War they would have abolished the practice, even officially, is unlikely. Even after their defeat it would take a century for these descendents of former slaves to be recognized and treated as equals.
Thankfully, the South was no match for the North's capacity to wage war, much like Japan was no match for the industrial might and manpower advantage of the U.S.
It is possible that a Southern victory might have led to further fragmentation in both sections.
In the defeated North, there would no longer be a need for Fugitive Slaves Laws which they never wanted in the first place, and of course the South would have no longer have legal means for compelling the return of runaway slaves. And no longer having to continue to Canada to escape slavery, runaways would only need to get across the Ohio River to be free. There would be ongoing animosity between the two nations over the Northern States' refusal to return runaways. I can easily imagine threats to deny the Northern right of passage on the Mississippi being used constantly by the Confederates to try and enforce the return of runaways. In addition there would be internal conflict in the North between New England/Ohio/Pennsylvania whose abolitionists would encourage and embrace runaways, and the western States/Eastern white labor force who favored keeping negroes out and sending runaways back. Those western States which depended upon the Mississippi River to export their crops and manufactures, would be furious with Ohio and New England for getting the river closed to them.
The victorious South, having established the right of secession via force of arms, may well inspire Northern sections dominated by anti negro sentiments, to wish to divorce themselves of political ties with the abolition oriented States.
Of course in the South itself, any internal conflcit would be accompanied by threats of secession...hell, the nation was founded on the concept. I think that serial instability would be a consequence of having a nation dedicated to the right of the members to break away when they didn't care for the majority's actions.
So, who knows? We might have wound up with four, rather than one or two nations. The United States, The Confederate States, The Federated Northwestern States and the Texarkana Republic.
As for freeing the slaves, it would most likely have caused a great deal of trouble. Keep in mind that the Southern Constitution vested no central power to free slaves, so it would have been up to each State individually. A situation where some Confederate States were free and some still slave, would have resulted in runaways making for the new free states, and the remaining slave states demanding their return, more or less recreating the situation in the 1850's which led to the war, but now just among the Southern States.
Slavery would gradually dissapear from the CSA on a state by state basis.
I agree with this. The diplomatic pressure placed on the CSA would've been too great, eventually, and their ability to trade with other nations would've been compromised had they not abolished it.
I also wouldn't be surprised if CSA had been re-annexed into the U.S. at some point, similar to Northern Ireland/UK situation or Scotland/UK. The South would not have the tax base to survive (as much as they crow about "states rights" today) and would've needed the federal assistance from the North to compete, economically, with the world.
The South couldn't have won the civil war. They could have forced a stalemate for a period of time, but the CSA and the Brazilian Empire were the only slave nations remaining in the western hemisphere and the industrialized world, and even the emperor of Brazil abolished slavery within a few years. So the CSA would sooner or later been forced to free the slaves, and in all likelihood, would have then re-united with the USA under terms that would have left a republic that evolved into pretty much what it is today.
There is no need for the South to have won. Suppose that Lincoln had simply let the South secede, thereby avoiding the Civil War. Many Southerners were reluctant to secede, and many were apprehensive (in principle) about slavery. Much of the conflict can be attributed to South Carolina, whose people were widely called "hotheads" here in North Carolina, and to Virginia.
My guess is that slavery would have ended once it became economically feasible but that Blacks would have continued to be marginalized. Had there not been a war, perhaps some form of Union would have been reestablished before the end of the nineteenth century.
The South couldn't have won the civil war. They could have forced a stalemate for a period of time, but the CSA and the Brazilian Empire were the only slave nations remaining in the western hemisphere and the industrialized world, and even the emperor of Brazil abolished slavery within a few years. So the CSA would sooner or later been forced to free the slaves, and in all likelihood, would have then re-united with the USA under terms that would have left a republic that evolved into pretty much what it is today.
There were a few different instances where the South could have outright pulverized the North. Two of the most prominent I can think of is the September-October 1862 dual offensive Maryland Campaign and Heartland Offensive into Maryland and the attempt to take Kentucky. If the Maryland Campaign goes off without a hitch (no Antietam) so Lee advances into Maryland or Pennsylvania and possibly surrounds Washington. And if Bragg isn't such an idiot (say he get's killed before the advance on Frankfort so the Army of Tennessee restructures it's command and either Breckinridge, Hardee, Taylor or Edmund Kirby Smith is put in charge) and they are successfully able to take Frankfort, make Hawes the new Governor of Kentucky and successfully fortify Lexington and Frankfort and Buell cannot route them. It would be more than enough for Britain/France to recognize the CSA and the Confederates get to take an additional state and couple territories with it.
The only other one I can think of is if Lee is able to destroy the Army of the Potomac at the North Anna in 1864, but I haven't researched too much on it.
Last edited by Desert kid; 09-17-2011 at 01:31 PM..
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