Coal is here to stay (Unfortunately)

[decembergirl]

Originally Posted by Philip T

There are Centuries of Coal to burn . . . if we were so foolish as do so.

We would not likely survive the Scorching of the Atmosphere this could bring about.

So we can more easily: Just Leave It In The Ground.

Renewables are now: Cheaper, Faster, and (MUCH) Cleaner.

Only question is the pace of conversion. Most new Electricity Production is Renewable. Fastest stuff going Off-Line is Old Coal, to be Followed by Old Nukes. No Need for New Coal and No Need for New Nukes.

This is all Good.

But why do people think that?

[Philip T]

Originally Posted by decembergirl

But why do people think that?

I am sorry, decembergirl, I am not following your question?

When you say "think that?"

do you mean "Why do people think Coal will keep being useful or needed?

If so, I can answer that -- the Coal Mine Owners and Coal Plant operators are (or at least used to be) VERY RICH people. They paid a LOT of money to promote those belief systems on US.

[decembergirl]

No, that there are centuries of coal to burn.

[Philip T]

Originally Posted by decembergirl

No, that there are centuries of coal to burn.

ahhh.

It depends on how you do the math.

If you look at estimates back over time, the numbers may look like they are go way up and way down.

Since the Earth is not making any or much "new" Coal, at least not very quickly, the number should stay constant . . . unless whole new mountains of the stuff show up, right?

But . . . here is what happens.

First you start with the actual volume . . .

Mineral Economics 1: Recoverable Tonnage

But then folks start shifting those numbers for different ways of looking at it.

Coal Terminology: Resource & Reserve

One sort of valid way is to look at How Much can be dug up with the Current Methods and Current Prices. Since prices are down . . . it may look like the amount available is shrinking. It is not really shrinking, just no one is going to go to the effort at the difficult locations at the current low prices.

But in the ideal world, we (meaning the whole world) should be able to, for the most part, transition off of Coal (and off Nukes, and off Hydrocarbons) within the next 40 to 50 years.

At that point, since the Coal would have little to no value . . . the "Recoverable" Coal would be very little, while there would still be actually Mega Tonnes or even Giga Tonnes just left in the ground.

[DCforever]

We didn't move from the Stone Age to the Bronze Age because we ran short of rocks.