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With it being New Year and all, I was just thinking about the future and how I'll quite likely live to see the day when oil reserves run out or at least become so expensive (say, $300+ a barrel in today's money) and wondered what the practical effects on everyday life will actually be.
I'm no science expert at all and a bit too hungover to think that clearly but the obvious one is making travel much more expensive - long-haul flights will become a luxury again as will big cars (already the case with our fuel taxes and road taxes here), transported goods will become far more expensive leading to high inflation. Plastics and perfumes will go way up in price as presumably will most energy bills, making modern, highly energy-dependent cities like Phoenix or Dubai unsustainable.
Lowering living standards would surely lead to major civil strife, but then again most nightmarish predictions of the future haven't come true like Fahrenheit 451 or 1984, or the scares about nuclear war or AIDS or the Y2K problem, so do you think we'll manage to innovate our way out of trouble this time?
Location: The western periphery of Terra Australis
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Whether we ease into it, or whether it hits us like a metaphorical meteor, depends on how well we prepare for it and how open we are to adapt our civilisation and lifestyles to using other forms of renewable and green-energy.
If a drastic re-structuring of our transport infrastructure and the economic and social systems and networks depending on it is not forthcoming then I see massive economic collapse, social problems and even basic problems feeding and sustaining people all over the world.
I think we'll have to weather some sort of storm but in the end we'll come out of it tougher. We should focus our energies on solar power, no matter how impractical or economically unfeasible, and put more money into making electrics and hybrids more mainstream. We should promote more public and shared transport options and learn the manage the fossil fuel reserves we have.
Well; I really doubt its just fuel;crude makes 13000 other products that need to be preplaced. I think we will not be able to completely replace.Anyhting that rteplaces it will be expensive also.
when it comes to estimating how much oil is exactly left, I don't think anyone knows. There are actually some extinct wells that are actually flowing with oil again.
Life will change for sure. We are far more dependant on petroleum than most people realize.
Its very tough to judge how long it'll last because we use so much in so many ways with more being developed every year. We probably use more oil in a week than we did in a year 50 years ago and it grows every year as countries develop.
Its hard to think of a single thing we do or need that isn't dependent on oil. People who take its loss lightly are hiding their heads in the sand. I also doubt very much anything will come up to replace it in a meaningful way given how diverse its uses are. We might find another way to fuell our cars but how about heating homes? Creating electricity? Making millions of tons of plastic & rubber and a hundred other things we dont think about. Tough nut to crack for sure.
I think if man hasn't made an alternate plan before the time comes when/if it runs out....he actually deserves to walk. (And do some of the other manual chores as well.)
Location: East of Seattle since 1992, 615' Elevation, Zone 8b - originally from SF Bay Area
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If yo9u do the research you will find that there's more than enough oil for another several hundred years, that's yet to be tapped. The oil companies keep the prices high by talk of shortage. At the same time, government regulations will likely require more and more hybrids and electric vehicles
so that eventually those with older cars will have to pay through the nose for gas as the demand is reduced. Actually, that's happening now, just from the reduced demand with people out of work.
We wont 'run out' as such, more that oil production will peak and then sowly decline. We peaked in 2005 btw. Most of your questions are answered here Peak Oil News and Message Boards*|*Exploring Hydrocarbon Depletion read the forums in particular. If you haven't heard the term peak oil before may i suggest you google it and start reading? There are many good books on the subject. As far as the future goes i'm something of a pessimist as there are no replacements for oil.
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