Please register to participate in our discussions with 2 million other members - it's free and quick! Some forums can only be seen by registered members. After you create your account, you'll be able to customize options and access all our 15,000 new posts/day with fewer ads.
These are estimates. I've seen people speculate that they may have been readjusted based off the official state numbers that were released last week. I just started glancing, but at first look, it seems to be a continuation of the previous estimates.
Just found the data now..
I dont think they had enough time to revise.. so now we have these pretty outdated estimate numbers. Still shows some NY continues in a continuation of a decline and dont add up to the real census numbers. Yikes.
It definitely is after looking at the three big Ohio metros. Ohio was undercounted by 110,000, but the YOY change between Cleveland, Columbus and Cincinnati is as follows:
That aligns with how they had trended in previous estimates. Combined, that's a total gain of 12,965, so unless I look further and the rest of Ohio (which isn't the case) has accounted for an additional gain of 100,000 in these YOY numbers, then it's definitely just a continuation and we won't know anything until the official numbers come out this summer.
While no explanation has been theorized about the states up north (and California) having such wide variations between their estimates and actual numbers, there is speculation that part of the reason states like Texas and Florida had such a wide variation between their estimates and their actual numbers because the Hispanic population in particular was undercounted:
While no explanation has been theorized about the states up north (and California) having such wide variations between their estimates and actual numbers, there is speculation that part of the reason states like Texas and Florida had such a wide variation between their estimates and their actual numbers because the Hispanic population in particular was undercounted:
I think that is part of the case. Hispanics and blacks are notoriously undercounted. I think it really stems back to the 2010 census numbers coming in significantly lower in a lot places than estimates had showed, and the estimates readjusted for the decade from that. I think the 2020 census state numbers were a little more accurate because those counts mostly came in before the pandemic hit (I believe I read that Cuyahoga County, or maybe it was just city of Cleveland, had the lowest return rate in the country at that point and it was still something like 63 percent).
But I maintain, the 2010 numbers were way off to begin due to the 2008 housing crisis. That put so many communities in flux with families being displaced right around the time those numbers were being counted. For example, in Cuyahoga County alone, there was something like 25,000 homes foreclosed, or about 7-8 percent of all owner-occupied homes, in just 2008 and 2009. You're talking about 50,000 to 60,000 people being displaced in a two-year window due to that. I'm sure a chunk of that fell through the cracks and why you saw such a downward adjustment between the 2010 estimates and 2010 final census numbers.
Plus, while I think the 2020 numbers will prove to be more accurate, I'm not going to discount the fact that census takers were still trying to finish counts during the pandemic, where again people were displaced, so they are probably still off, just not as much as they were in 2010.
It's crazy that the last two incidents on a national level that caused people to be more transient out of necessity, both came right before, or during, the last two census counts. We may not really get a more true count until the 2030 census (and again that's barring another catastrophe happening right before/during that count).
Last edited by ClevelandBrown; 05-04-2021 at 02:46 PM..
Obviously taking these with a huge grain of salt, but a few things that stood out to me:
- Philadelphia lost population (-0.38%)
- Hamilton County OH (Cincinnati) is inching down again (-0.08%)
- Miami-Dade lost population (-0.16%)
- Suffolk County MA lost population (-0.54%)
- SF finally did lose population, and not by just a tick (-1.39%)
- Oakland and Macomb Counties in metro Detroit finally shrank, slightly
- In metro DC, Fairfax County VA, Alexandria VA, Prince George's County MD all shrank, and Montgomery County MD barely inched up (0.07%). DC proper grew (0.64%) but less than in recent years
- North Dakota has ground to a halt: only 10 of its 53 counties grew
- Not only did NYC's 5 boroughs all shrink, they were among the fastest shrinking counties in NY state
- California is really crashing: only 24 of its 58 counties gained residents, only ones with >1% growth were Placer, San Benito, and Yuba
- The Illinois exodus is barreling along: all but 4 counties lost people, only 1 of them in Chicagoland (Kendall). Across the state line, even Lake County IN (Gary) grew
- Both Seattle and Portland's counties gained, and not just barely (1.10% for King WA, 0.39% for Multnomah OR, in line with the past few years IIRC). King actually had higher growth than suburban Snohomish or Pierce, which really surprised me --- and Kitsap (west suburbs/exurbs), which I'd think would be booming now, barely ticked up (0.18%)
- Only WA county to lose people was Whitman (Pullman/WSU). I'm a bit surprised, I thought college towns were big winners from the pandemic, but I guess Pullman is small and doesn't really offer much to non-students
------------------------------------------------
Overall... much less of a jolt to migration trends than I was expecting, mostly just a continuation of existing ones
Obviously taking these with a huge grain of salt, but a few things that stood out to me:
- Philadelphia lost population (-0.38%)
- Hamilton County OH (Cincinnati) is inching down again (-0.08%)
- Miami-Dade lost population (-0.16%)
- Suffolk County MA lost population (-0.54%)
- SF finally did lose population, and not by just a tick (-1.39%)
- Oakland and Macomb Counties in metro Detroit finally shrank, slightly
- In metro DC, Fairfax County VA, Alexandria VA, Prince George's County MD all shrank, and Montgomery County MD barely inched up (0.07%). DC proper grew (0.64%) but less than in recent years
- North Dakota has ground to a halt: only 10 of its 53 counties grew
- Not only did NYC's 5 boroughs all shrink, they were among the fastest shrinking counties in NY state
- California is really crashing: only 24 of its 58 counties gained residents, only ones with >1% growth were Placer, San Benito, and Yuba
- The Illinois exodus is barreling along: all but 4 counties lost people, only 1 of them in Chicagoland (Kendall). Across the state line, even Lake County IN (Gary) grew
- Both Seattle and Portland's counties gained, and not just barely (1.10% for King WA, 0.39% for Multnomah OR, in line with the past few years IIRC)
- Only WA county to lose people was Whitman (Pullman/WSU). I'm a bit surprised, I thought college towns were big winners from the pandemic, but I guess Pullman is small and doesn't really offer much to non-students
------------------------------------------------
Overall... much less of a jolt to migration trends than I was expecting, mostly just a continuation of existing ones
Only NYS got undercounted by 900,000. We already know DC is very wrong. Off by about 30,000.
These are from the July 1 2020 estimate period. Based on the deviations shown in last weeks state releases I suspect we will see some pretty big underestimations in the official census releases.
Please register to post and access all features of our very popular forum. It is free and quick. Over $68,000 in prizes has already been given out to active posters on our forum. Additional giveaways are planned.
Detailed information about all U.S. cities, counties, and zip codes on our site: City-data.com.
Please register to participate in our discussions with 2 million other members - it's free and quick! Some forums can only be seen by registered members. After you create your account, you'll be able to customize options and access all our 15,000 new posts/day with fewer ads.
