"The idea that we can all get rich by buying and selling each other's houses was always an illusion." (Cape Coral: coupons, insurance)

[vegasboy]

Originally Posted by nhkev

based on real estate sales volumes being up to what they were during the boom i think your statement that there aren't buyers is way off. And saying real estate prices won't go up is like saying the stock market won't go up. Did all the stupid people in the world suddenly become smart? NOPE. did all the greedy people finally say I've got enough? NOPE did florida suddenly become an arctic climate that people from the north no longer wish to escape to? NOPE .... Now to really open a can of worms, there is no more water in the world now then there ever has been the water level is a constant.. everyone talks about the polar ice caps melting, last I checked if I filled a glass with ice cubes and filled in the voids with water the glass does not overflow when the ice melts. and if you look at what they do in dubai they can dredge the ocean and make islands faster than the sea is rising. If you're negative on housing don't buy ,,, if you're negative on cape coral move. if you're worried about rising sea levels buy a boat.

I couldn't help but to shout aloud a few AMENS to this post! As a FN I know there are some things I dare not say, but I find it strange that so many people do not understand the power of thought. Read The Secret and you will know what I mean.

Please remember that communities change over years, and if crime, run down communities and facilities etc starts bugging you, it is time for YOU to take on the challenge to initiate positive change. My motto: The Challenge is Mine in 2009. Upgrade or move on, which asks a positive attitude and a LOT of stretching. Living in the no 1 murder and rape capital of the world, with unemployment as high as 30-40%, I have learnt that like attracks like, meaning negative thoughts produces more negative thoughts and as a man thinketh, that he WILL become.

So I spend my evenings doing research, finding ideas to create wealth through real estate, seeing what others do not see and then doing what others do not do. I purposefully set higher standards for myself. The quality of your life is directly related to your standards and NOT to the availability of jobs. What is a standard: It is a personal rule or expectation about the level of excellence you require and set for yourself, in something or someone, and then working towards that goal as an expected outcome. GREAT forum with stunning people, keep up the good work. Viva Florida!

[vman650]

[quote=nhkev;8694034]

Originally Posted by yachtcare

Havent heard that sales are up to quite that level, but frankly I havent really cared. I'm definatly not in the market here. From what I have gathered in talking to a few realtors I know, sales volume is up, but the prices are still way, way off of what they were a few years back. There is still quite a way to go to soak up all the available property out there.

march (which is the most recent available at this time) was the highest real estate volume in 5 yrs but the numbers really since april of 08 have been strong. NO the prices are still low they always lag volume but if you look at the charts from the last 2 yrs they took a nosedive but over the last 5 months have put in a pretty good bottom one month slighty up next month slightly down but overall flat. I am not predicting 2006 prices to return (they were overpriced) but I am looking for a 100% increase from where they are today over the next 5 yrs. If a house was worth 200k and was selling for $260k it needed to come down by 30% just to be what it was worth (that is every market in america) what made cape coral different was that it was overbuilt, people were able to buy that weren't worthy , there were speculators that were just trying to make a dollar with no intentions of living in, and the local economy could not support the employment and income needed to sustain. so cape coral was bound to drop a lot more than the rest of country. So what makes this any different? 1st time home buyers can own for the cost of renting, lower interest rates, 1st time home buyer tax credit, cash buyers that will have less over head and equity in the homes. a lot of the buyers will not be dependant on jobs to afford living there, which in itself will create a tax base without putting the burden on the schools. Imho the price will continue to be flat through the summer then when the buying season picks up again there will be a large spike in the values due to a much lower inventory (less than a 5 months supply vs 21 month supply a yr ago) but a spike off a median price of 93k to 115k isn't a new boom it's just recovering some of the overshoot, after that I predict normal price appreciation 3-5% a year with an occasional shoot up 8-10 yrs before we get back to 2006 levels.

Maybe not. You need to factor in the large baby boom population which owns homes. As they die off, these homes will hit the market. One thing that does work in favor of your prediction is the replacement cost of building new homes. If existing homes are much less than the replacement value, then new home construction will lag and supply and demand will fall back in line. As to foreign buyers entering the picture, they do so as speculators and must either rent, sell or be eaten up by upkeep and taxes. This is a very complex equation, and not easy to figure out. My opinion is that people who buy and live in the homes will do fine. I am not so sure about the speculators, it may be many years before we see significant price appreciation. You do know what they say about opinions. Ultimately, you pay your money and take your chances.

[TANaples]

[quote=vman650;8699609]

Originally Posted by nhkev

Maybe not. You need to factor in the large baby boom population which owns homes. As they die off, these homes will hit the market. One thing that does work in favor of your prediction is the replacement cost of building new homes. If existing homes are much less than the replacement value, then new home construction will lag and supply and demand will fall back in line. As to foreign buyers entering the picture, they do so as speculators and must either rent, sell or be eaten up by upkeep and taxes. This is a very complex equation, and not easy to figure out. My opinion is that people who buy and live in the homes will do fine. I am not so sure about the speculators, it may be many years before we see significant price appreciation. You do know what they say about opinions. Ultimately, you pay your money and take your chances.

from the UK. They bought into this development long before we did. They live here in the states from January through June. Their sons and wives spend a few weeks here in the summer. There are also a number of foreigners who own (snowbirds) from other countries. They don't just rent.

Will these people give up their foreign citzenships and move here permanently? I doubt it, at least my neighbors have no intention of that. This is just their "winter home".

[nhkev]

[quote=vman650;8699609]

Originally Posted by nhkev

Maybe not. You need to factor in the large baby boom population which owns homes. As they die off, these homes will hit the market. One thing that does work in favor of your prediction is the replacement cost of building new homes. If existing homes are much less than the replacement value, then new home construction will lag and supply and demand will fall back in line. As to foreign buyers entering the picture, they do so as speculators and must either rent, sell or be eaten up by upkeep and taxes. This is a very complex equation, and not easy to figure out. My opinion is that people who buy and live in the homes will do fine. I am not so sure about the speculators, it may be many years before we see significant price appreciation. You do know what they say about opinions. Ultimately, you pay your money and take your chances.

you are right about the baby boomers eventually dying off, but in the short term they should boost the sales in the next coming years. I don't think they are going to trust the stock market again and florida has very friendly laws when it comes to protecting your nest egg in real estate, and the world's population is growing so (wildly speculation) maybe india , china is the next wave of foreign investors who want their trophy american home that they will only visit 1 week a year. I am not worried about where the market was in 2006 nor I am concerned about where it is going to be in 2020 next 5-8 yrs is what I'm concerned with. because the same could be said about any other investment in the world..supply vs demand is already back in line. but a very good point baby boomers will not live forever.

[yoko]

Originally Posted by nhkev

I don't know where you're from but thinking an 85k for a house that cost 200k to build isn't cheap? for 85k you cannot buy a single wide mobile home in a camp resort up here. as far as a rental property if you rented the house for 850 per month you would get a net return of 5% off your investment even if there is no appreciation but after 5 yrs if it went up to 125k in value that would be 9% on top of 5% positive cash flow 14% annual return is an excellent investment. worst case scenario I have a 2nd home that I can go to during the sub zero temps up here. plus with all the money being printed from the gov't it is going to create inflation which means you would want to hold hard assetts. and like a previous post buy low sell high, the people that are negative are probably the ones that got burnt and when they become positive on the market it's probably time to sell again. real estate is similar to any other investment it's when you buy and when you sell that matters. The great Jim cramer has a saying bulls make money , bears make money , pigs get slaughtered

Where I come from is invisible to greedy people.

My father is an old man who is unemployed and has received eviction notice to leave his temporary "Katrina" trailer to become yet another homeless.
My mother works as fruit picker in Florida for packaged fruit juice companies.
My sister picks tomatoes for fast food companies.
My other sister works in a sweat shop to make cheap nick nacks souvenirs for tourists.
My younger brother cleans the floor and toiletts of a mega store.
My oldest brother is unemployed after cutting boards after boards of Chinese-German dry walls without knowing what stuff he is sniffing filling up his lungs.
My other cousin sprays chemicals around houses without wearing masks or having health insurance.
My cousin works for a meat packaging factory. My aunt works as cashier in a supermarket.
I work for a a sub contractor of a sub tractor company to slice food for airlines.

One day on the bus I heard a woman telling her friend how happy she was that her aggressive unemployed husband, who was wasting too much of his time on internet, has joined the army to help defend our country against the real enemy..ignorance!

[yoko]

Originally Posted by vman650

Two years ago they were pushing on tv the get rich quick by buying real estate with no money down gig. Now things have changed as they push the buy foreclosures for next to nothing gig. No the greedy and stupid are still here amongst us. So are the smart and opportunistic. We will not know which one is which until we see how it all pans out about 5 years from now. Capitalism is not always fair and not always productive, but it is never dull.

Vman 650

Housing has actually contributed to widen the gap between the poor and the rich instead of narrowing the wealth gap.

In Cape Coral, in the past two years, the ones who were buying..locking their money is something that loses value everyday and the ones who were not selling to buy much nicer houses at much lower prices both have had the "opportunity loss".
Also, illusion of making money from housing has led to hoarding of houses by some new comers. This hoarding of houses is delaying the fall of prices to their equilibrium level, where houses could actually be affordable for the working poor with little real income.

[nhkev]

Originally Posted by yoko

Where I come from is invisible to greedy people.

My father is an old man who is unemployed and has received eviction notice to leave his temporary "Katrina" trailer to become yet another homeless.
My mother works as fruit picker in Florida for packaged fruit juice companies.
My sister picks tomatoes for fast food companies.
My other sister works in a sweat shop to make cheap nick nacks souvenirs for tourists.
My younger brother cleans the floor and toiletts of a mega store.
My oldest brother is unemployed after cutting boards after boards of Chinese-German dry walls without knowing what stuff he is sniffing filling up his lungs.
My other cousin sprays chemicals around houses without wearing masks or having health insurance.
My cousin works for a meat packaging factory. My aunt works as cashier in a supermarket.
I work for a a sub contractor of a sub tractor company to slice food for airlines.

One day on the bus I heard a woman telling her friend how happy she was that her aggressive unemployed husband, who was wasting too much of his time on internet, has joined the army to help defend our country against the real enemy..ignorance!

unfortunately then cape coral is too expensive for the type of people you have listed here, but captiva, and hawaii are too expensive for me to live SO I DON'T LIVE THERE. But I see we are arguing from two different point of views I'm looking at it from the point of view of an investment and you're looking at it from just being able to get the basics in life. And don't get me wrong I was once 18 yrs old working at tj maxx and my now wife was working at dunkin donuts. But we were patient and we made sure to put ourselves in the position if the right opportunity came up we'd be able to capitalize on it. but getting back to the original start of your post about this being an illusion... what isn't? when people spend $4000 for a diamond ring (a rock that someone digs out of the ground) gold necklaces, bracelets??? we put a value on certain things and housing has both tangible and untangible values, and if people want it they will have to pay for it. Sorry to hear about your dad.

[nhkev]

Originally Posted by yoko

Vman 650

Housing has actually contributed to widen the gap between the poor and the rich instead of narrowing the wealth gap.

In Cape Coral, in the past two years, the ones who were buying..locking their money is something that loses value everyday and the ones who were not selling to buy much nicer houses at much lower prices both have had the "opportunity loss".
Also, illusion of making money from housing has led to hoarding of houses by some new comers. This hoarding of houses is delaying the fall of prices to their equilibrium level, where houses could actually be affordable for the working poor with little real income.

housing in cape coral has already found it's equilibrium which simply put the amount of buyers vs sellers, days on the market, asking price to sales ratios, inventory levels. houses in cape coral are not meant to be affordable for the working poor it is a sad but true fact, when it was developed it was meant for retirees that had plenty of money and then homes for the services that would be there, policemen,teachers , healthcare, and their kids would be working in the malls and retail. some people can only afford to rent, live in mobile homes,or stay living with relatives, the illusion is HOUSES FOR EVERYONE , the hoarding of houses is probably what will lead to affordable housing because they will have to rent them and if there is a lot of rentals available it drives down rents simple supply and demand. housing is not expensive, it's just too expensive for someone who make $6 an hour. One of my best friends works at a gas station, he lives in a mobile home park for $400 per month with a roomate that he splits with and he has a great quality of life and is one of the happiest people I know.

[hiknapster]

A history lesson.

Some of you remember, some of you don't know and some of you choose to forget, but for decades Lee County was not an enclave for the rich, and that definitely includes Cape Coral, kev.

When I moved there in 1998 the place was full of the lower to middle class snowbirds and the people that serviced them. Houses? I could have built a brand new home in Cape Coral in 1999 for $70,000. I still have the paperwork to prove it. The same house in my hometown of Massachusetts would have cost at least $180,000.

The place was cheap. Always has been.

In 2004, the prices first shot up after Charley, when contractors and construction people were tied up repairing homes. Suddenly there was a crunch and prices went up. Then word got around that all that plywood was rising in cost due to the three hurricanes. Right after that, word got around that there might a gold rush for homes and liar loans and adjustable mortgages dovetailed right into the frenzy.

Kev, if you get your investment advice from "the great Jim Cramer" and act on it you are going to be in a world of hurt.

vegas boy, I could care less that you are not American. I think everyone in this world is equal.

I only point out that you are from Capetown and you are talking up this area and thinking that you are going to make a killing like you did in South Africa. The difference between the two areas are vast. Capetown still has a housing crunch and that is because all of those murderers, rapists and the thousands of crime victims are living in cardboard boxes.

In contrast, southwest Florida looks like a ghost town. Once again, the United States of America is an enormous country with lots of land and lots and lots of housing inventory. There is talk of knocking a lot of it down because it is not going to be sold, and that includes areas of Lee County.

"The Secret," a self-help book endorsed by Oprah, where one can wish things so has nothing to do with our actual circumstances. I've seen your positive thinking website and that is all very nice but you are flying blind on this one.

[yoko]

Hiknapster, super comment. Thank you. This forum has become a microphone for "sellers" of homes. They down play all problems which we have in Cape Coral. They don't care who falls ill because of chemicals or loses money. Main thing is " making money" at any cost. And so goes the sale of one's own soul.

Thanks again for taking your time writing something meaningful, as always.