[City Guy997S]

Originally Posted by Phil P

Jesus beat you to the punch on this by 2000 years bro... "...shall be likened unto a foolish man, which built his house upon the sand: And the rain descended, and the floods came, and the winds blew, and beat upon that house; and it fell: and great was the fall of it."

I used to think people were dumb for living in Florida. I've since updated my opinion: 90% of Florida's land area is a fine place to build on, but the party animal old people apparently can't figure out how to have fun in a forest, they have to play on the sandbar... It's like someone took a map of the worst places to build in Florida and decided THAT'S where the condos need to go!

I think double digit insurance rate hikes, like the ones this year, are going to be a party crasher more than people realize. The banks will lend as long as the insurance companies back the mortgage, so the insurance companies are going to be the first ones to cry "Uncle!" Too bad people couldn't be bothered with a 30 minute drive to the beach instead of a walk...

Ok........do you realize that those condos are built for their "views" as much as their walking proximity to the beach? The insurance companies re-insure with others so their exposure is limited/shared and the insurance companies are not allowed to "exclude" beachfront properties and just insure the inland stuff 30 minutes away......they have to take the good with the bad.

The "party crasher" never comes.........always hyped though.

I personally know people that have decided to forgo hurricane coverage on their properties. Between the high premium and crazy deductible they just self insure. One guy told me that he would need over 500K in damage before the insurance company would even come out to look and the premium was 45K a year. So in theory, 10 years with no insurance = 450K saved just in premiums! So lets say the big one hits, now he has 450K more to fix the house or simply tear it down and build something new. House is oceanfront, the current value is in the 2 acre lot, not the actual structure on the property (older house).

[Phil P]

Originally Posted by City Guy997S

Ok........do you realize that those condos are built for their "views" as much as their walking proximity to the beach? The insurance companies re-insure with others so their exposure is limited/shared and the insurance companies are not allowed to "exclude" beachfront properties and just insure the inland stuff 30 minutes away......they have to take the good with the bad.

The "party crasher" never comes.........always hyped though.

I personally know people that have decided to forgo hurricane coverage on their properties. Between the high premium and crazy deductible they just self insure. One guy told me that he would need over 500K in damage before the insurance company would even come out to look and the premium was 45K a year. So in theory, 10 years with no insurance = 450K saved just in premiums! So lets say the big one hits, now he has 450K more to fix the house or simply tear it down and build something new. House is oceanfront, the current value is in the 2 acre lot, not the actual structure on the property (older house).

Yeah, you could build condos on top of Pikes Peak or just go out and build them in the ocean too, views are even better! If some people are prepared to walk away from 450K, that's fine, but for the rest I can guarantee you America isn't going to say, "well geez, tough luck you're homeless, shouldn't have lived there". They'll get bailed out, Katrina 2.0.

The party is already crashing bud... Right now the state of Florida is going all big government market interference trying to limit the amount of double digit insurance hikes per year. Mandate that beach front properties are insured, mandate limited rate hikes, that type of interference only leads to bigger problems down the road. Left to themselves, the insurance companies would have walked away or charged the astronomical but appropriate rates.

https://www.tampabay.com/news/florid...soaring-rates/

If the government's in the business of subsidizing views, I want better damn roads into the Rockies and more trees to look at in the midwest, unfair the sandbar gets special treatment.

[WRnative]

Originally Posted by Corrie22

..and I'll wager you can't read a NOAA sea level graph

that's 40 years...it's going to rise a little more than 3 inches

See Table 5 here:

https://tidesandcurrents.noaa.gov/pu...e_US_final.pdf

Intermediate low to intermediate high scenarios show 5.2 to 7.5 inches by 2030, 7.1 inches to 11.8 inches by 2040, and 9.5 inches to 17.3 inches by 2050 for Global Mean Sea Level rise.

As noted repeatedly, Florida's Regional Sea Level rise will be 35 to 72 percent higher due to greater thermal expansion (GMSL comprehends the ocean levels in the cryosphere) in the oceans surrounding Florida and the increased gravity as polar ice melts.

<<Every section of coast has regional influences that add to or subtract from the GMSL rise. For South Florida, our future “total relative sea level” rise will include an addition of 15 to 20 percent from projected slowing of the Florida Current/Gulf Stream and 20 percent to 52 percent from redistribution of ocean mass as the Greenland and Antarctic ice sheets melt.

Their huge ice masses pull water toward them. As they melt and their mass diminishes, their gravitational attraction diminishes and ocean water redistributes.

This means that South Florida should add 35 percent to 72 percent additional rise to the GMSL projections. The total relative sea-level rise for South Florida by 2046 could thus be 2.7 to 3.4 feet, and within 50 years could be 5.7 to 7.2 feet. This is not an encouraging future when you look at elevation maps of South Florida or most any other coast.>>

https://www.sun-sentinel.com/opinion...620-story.html

The intensity of the new solar cycle dramatically may impact ocean warming, ice melt and sea level rise.

<<A study of oppositely charged magnetic field bands, moving in the sun’s northern and southern hemispheres, suggests the coming sunspot cycle – Cycle 25 – will be a particularly strong one. This result contradicts an earlier expert forecast, suggesting a weak Cycle 25.

The 11-year sunspot cycle that just ended, Cycle 24, was a noticeably weak one. Around the peak of the cycle in April 2014, there were substantially fewer sunspots – and fewer accompanying solar flares and coronal mass ejections – than at other recent solar cycles. Experts have predicted that Cycle 25, which was announced to have begun in September of this year, will be a weak sunspot cycle as well. But scientists led by the National Center for Atmospheric Research (NCAR) disagree. They announced on December 7, 2020, their prediction that Solar Cycle 25 will be one of the strongest on record. The article below, by Laura Snider, was originally published in NCAR & UCAR News. Reprinted here with permission. >>

https://earthsky.org/space/sunspot-c...cord-says-ncar

The International Thwaites Glacier Collaboration didn't return to Antarctica for the 2020-2021 season due to the COVID epidemic. Likely, the research will resume in 2021-2022, and scientists will be able to develop a timeline for changes impacting the "doomsday glacier."

<<For the first time, researchers have collected data from underneath the remote Thwaites Glacier in West Antarctica using an underwater robot. Findings reveal that the supply of warm water to the glacier is larger than previously thought, triggering concerns of faster melting and accelerating ice flow....
The ice sheet in West Antarctica accounts for about ten percent of the current rate of sea level rise, but ice in West Antarctica holds the most potential for increasing that rate because the fastest changes are taking place at Thwaites Glacier. Due to its location and shape, Thwaites is particularly sensitive to warm and salty ocean currents that are accessing beneath.>>

https://thwaitesglacier.org/news/und...waites-glacier

If Thwaites glacier calving begins in earnest, sea level rise could become much more pronounced.

https://thwaitesglacier.org/about/facts


See post 40 in this thread for a more detailed discussion of the Thwaites Glacier.


https://www.city-data.com/forum/flor...g-money-4.html


See posts 66 and 68 in the following thread:

Sea level rise accelerates (Miami, Tampa: oceanfront, how much, homes) - Florida (FL) - Page 7 - City-Data Forum

The bottom line is that sea level rise will be much more pronounced in this and future decades than in past decades as tipping lines are being crossed in the cryosphere, especially warming oceans and ice melt. How much sea level rise will accelerate remains to be seen, but the scientists expect a much more pronounced level of sea level rise and acceleration than generally acknowledged by U.S. political leaders let alone the public, or even the media.

Watch closely the development of solar cycle 25.

How much will the increasing inundation of Florida beaches and great natural areas affect quality of life, even ignoring the general impact of sea level rise on flooding frequency and fresh water and sewage systems? Will a major hurricane strike a major population center and break the Florida residential insurance market?

It will be fascinating to see how climate change impacts Florida residential pricing in the coming years. My hunch is that it's a game of musical chairs, and much like New York City housing prices have fallen over the last two years, there could be a similar or faster break in Florida housing prices as events unfold, especially a hurricane strike causing hundreds of billions of losses and resulting in much higher insurance rates.

See post 20 in this thread regarding Florida insurance considerations.

https://www.city-data.com/forum/flor...g-money-2.html

[bale002]

Originally Posted by WRnative

.. cycle – Cycle 25 – The 11-year sunspot cycle ... peak of the cycle

... future decades ... It will be fascinating to see how climate change impacts Florida residential pricing in the coming years.

Humans live one cycle of breath at a time. That is fascinating enough.

To be sure, all this breathing has an impact on sunspot cycles.

[mateo45]

Originally Posted by stank1964

Wow, it seems like OP doesn’t realize that man has been holding back the sea for hundreds of years. Regardless of what the idiots in Washington say, walls really do work and it’s very likely that we will be able to build wall(s) quicker than water will rise. SMH.

Interesting. Though since when did "Build A Wall" become the 'go-to' solution among 'wingers for everything these days... from Immigration, to Trade, to improving 'Cultural Divides', and now even for 'solving' Climate Change?!

[beach43ofus]

Originally Posted by mateo45

Interesting. Though since when did "Build A Wall" become the 'go-to' solution among 'wingers for everything these days... from Immigration, to Trade, to improving 'Cultural Divides', and now even for 'solving' Climate Change?!

Since walls were shown to work. Banks will loan money to pay for wall construction. New Orleans flooded when their wall caved in, but then they fixed it. Lake Okochobee's wall caved in, and many people died, so they fixed that wall too, & now they are fixing the fix so it won't happen again, and so they can stop draining nitrogen-rich water into the ocean/gulf.

Banks like walls because the walls protect their investments...in Florida, and elsewhere. It's not political.

[mateo45]

Originally Posted by beach43ofus

Since walls were shown to work. Banks will loan money to pay for wall construction. New Orleans flooded when their wall caved in, but then they fixed it. Lake Okochobee's wall caved in and many people died, so they fixed that wall too, & now they are fixing the fix so it won't happen again, and so they can stop draining nitrogen-rich water into the ocean/gulf.

Banks like walls because the walls protect their investments...in Florida, and elsewhere. It's not political.

Thx, I rest my case.... but hey, at least the 'Banks' liked 'em (lol)!

[WRnative]

Originally Posted by beach43ofus

Since walls were shown to work. Banks will loan money to pay for wall construction. New Orleans flooded when their wall caved in, but then they fixed it. Lake Okochobee's wall caved in, and many people died, so they fixed that wall too, & now they are fixing the fix so it won't happen again, and so they can stop draining nitrogen-rich water into the ocean/gulf.

Banks like walls because the walls protect their investments...in Florida, and elsewhere. It's not political.

Walls won't protect south Florida from rising seas as south Florida is built on bedrock that is porous limestone.


https://highwaterline.org/sea-level-rise-faqs/


Massive, expensive to operate, pumping stations would be needed to supplement any walls built to limit coastal flooding.


https://highwaterline.org/sea-level-rise-faqs/


This has been repeatedly explained in this and other threads in this forum, and yet you can't seem to remember this reality.

[kokonutty]

Originally Posted by WRnative

Walls won't protect south Florida from rising seas as south Florida is built on bedrock that is porous limestone.


https://highwaterline.org/sea-level-rise-faqs/


Massive, expensive to operate, pumping stations would be needed to supplement any walls built to limit coastal flooding.


https://highwaterline.org/sea-level-rise-faqs/


This has been repeatedly explained in this and other threads in this forum, and yet you can't seem to remember this reality.

Apparently you can't remember where all those places are you referred to that flood a foot or more every year. Surely you have a page of text and a dozen irrelevant links on hand to support your bogus claims to that affect.

[WRnative]

Originally Posted by kokonutty

Apparently you can't remember where all those places are you referred to that flood a foot or more every year. Surely you have a page of text and a dozen irrelevant links on hand to support your bogus claims to that affect.

Post links when you object to any post. So now even three sentences is "a page of text."