Flagstaff has changed...A LOT (Phoenix, Mesa: middle-class, sales, real estate)

[johninvegas]

Originally Posted by kttam186290

Yes, there may be the occasional California transplant here and there, but it's not overwhelming and its certainly not a huge rush!

While I agree with you that the people leaving California are not an exodus, the census bureau showed a 138,000 net loss to the state in 2017. That's not exactly "the occasional California transplant."

[motormaker]

Originally Posted by Slater

You do hear stories of people in Oregon being openly hostile to Californians. Although that may have been years ago.

A few friends with family from HS moved to Oregon in the late 50's or early 60's to work construction. They move back to CA because of the hostility from the locals.

[KurtAZ]

Originally Posted by kttam186290

Before everyone starts "freaking out" about Californians invading Flagstaff, keep in mind that much of NAU's student population is from California. Therefore, they will bring California plates with them. Furthermore, their families will also visit them and you will see those California plates on the local roads too. Lots of these families will come up during the "Fall Break" to explore the town and foliage, then they'll leave again. If anything, Flagstaff and Arizona should be thankful for the infusion of California tourist money into its revenue base.

When these NAU students graduate, they will move back to California, or move on to other states. Almost none of them will stay in Flagstaff as there isn't much to offer them in the way of a career there.

Trust me when I say that there isn't a "rush" of Californians incoming into Flagstaff. There isn't the job base or the medical infrastructure to support that. Nobody from California that I know wants to drive 100 miles from Flagstaff to Phoenix for advanced medical care when they can live in Big Bear or Lake Arrowhead and be so much closer.

Yes, there may be the occasional California transplant here and there, but it's not overwhelming and its certainly not a huge rush!

Which leads us back to the question...if they are not moving there permanently and the local economy will not support a $400k+ home tract (only so many people can work at Gore, Purina or NAU) WHO is purchasing those homes? We did go up with the intention of looking at the new homes being built and almost every driveway had vehicles with CA plates.

I will dispute the "occasional CA Transplant" assertion in regards to AZ as a State, not just Flagstaff. Recent transplants (again, not all are from CA) are systematically ruining local small town economies all over AZ. Very few jobs in Payson are paying enough to support a $300k+ home...but the average price of homes currently listed? $349k...3.1% increase YoY. Prescott? $430k...7.5% increase YoY. Flagstaff? $439k...6.7% increase YoY.

There has been no major shift in employers in these areas. No new HQs have been built. With the rise and prevalence of Telecommuting, the "not desert" towns in AZ become more desirable (that is why we are looking outside the Phoenix Metro) but that can only account for some of the rise. It stands to reason that folks moving in to either retire or from another state with (most likely) a lump profit from selling a home in a more expensive market are purchasing at or above market value for cash...just to insure they get the property they want. The more demand, the higher the selling price. Locals are soon priced out of the market.

[Felicia A. Blue]

Oh, This is crazy.

[Slater]

Just print some bumper stickers that say "Arizona is an assault rifle friendly state", and most Californians will flee in horror

[infocyde]

Originally Posted by KurtAZ

Which leads us back to the question...if they are not moving there permanently and the local economy will not support a $400k+ home tract (only so many people can work at Gore, Purina or NAU) WHO is purchasing those homes? We did go up with the intention of looking at the new homes being built and almost every driveway had vehicles with CA plates.

I will dispute the "occasional CA Transplant" assertion in regards to AZ as a State, not just Flagstaff. Recent transplants (again, not all are from CA) are systematically ruining local small town economies all over AZ. Very few jobs in Payson are paying enough to support a $300k+ home...but the average price of homes currently listed? $349k...3.1% increase YoY. Prescott? $430k...7.5% increase YoY. Flagstaff? $439k...6.7% increase YoY.

There has been no major shift in employers in these areas. No new HQs have been built. With the rise and prevalence of Telecommuting, the "not desert" towns in AZ become more desirable (that is why we are looking outside the Phoenix Metro) but that can only account for some of the rise. It stands to reason that folks moving in to either retire or from another state with (most likely) a lump profit from selling a home in a more expensive market are purchasing at or above market value for cash...just to insure they get the property they want. The more demand, the higher the selling price. Locals are soon priced out of the market.

This...

[blindjesse]

The biggest change has been the increase in the population of the NAU student body. This has been a targeted increase since 2001 or so. That and limited housing supply has raised prices more than anything. And let's be honest: not many (old) people want to retire to a place that has 200+ nights below freezing a year.

[infocyde]

https://www.55places.com/blog/flagst...nt-destination

Just the tip of the 200+ nights below freezing iceberg. Flagstaff gets a lot of good retiree press. Students aren't buying those 400K houses, maybe their parents are...

There is definitely still a younger vibe in Flagstaff thanks to NAU. Compare that to Prescott where it is a little warmer (to your point) and only a few small colleges/universities.

[KurtAZ]

Originally Posted by blindjesse

The biggest change has been the increase in the population of the NAU student body. This has been a targeted increase since 2001 or so. That and limited housing supply has raised prices more than anything. And let's be honest: not many (old) people want to retire to a place that has 200+ nights below freezing a year.

Fair enough...but college students are NOT purchasing $400k homes.

[Hschlick84]

What will happen to all the $400k homes in 20-30 years when all the boomers die off and there is an oversupply of them?