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Interesting article from Fivethirtyeight on the voting in Oregon which is behind 2004. The turnout is lower in Republican areas that were strong Bush in 2004. Everyone assumes that that those late to decide will go for McCain, however might they just stay at home? Are Republican's less enthusiastic by McCain/Palin then by Bush and might they just not participate? Is this a national trend possibility? FiveThirtyEight.com: Electoral Projections Done Right
More importantly, however, the counties most culpable for the depressed turnout appear to be those that voted substantially for George W. Bush in 2004. For example, in Multnomah County, which is largely coincident with the reliably liberal Portland, turnout is down 16 percent as compared with the comparable period in 2004. Downstate in more rural Douglas County, meanwhile, where Bush received two-thirds of the vote in 2004, turnout is 27 percent off-pace.
This is a terrific question, and one that I have wondered about, too. I think many that are truly undecided at this point may not vote, and perhaps they should not. The issues seem pretty clear cut to me!
According to 538, the undecideds tend to be low income, less educated whites. Why are they still undecided this late in the game? Could it be that they are just a little slow on the uptake? If a person isn't too smart, it may take longer for the brain to process information, so maybe that's why these people are still undecided.
The undecideds are either waiting until the very last minute to vote the lesser of 2 evils in their minds or will vote 3rd party!
We are forgetting that most of these "undecideds" wanted Ron Paul!
Forget the October Surprise--the November Surprise will be Ron Paul coming out the victor! Hey--it could happen.... those undedided voters are a mighty force...
Getting back to reality, if undecided voters don't vote, Obama wins. The only way McCain can win is to have those undecided voters go for him--and it doesn't look like he can do it.
I'm one of the undecided's. I'll tell anyone that asks that I believe deep down that whichever candidate I vote for will be what I believe to be the lesser of two evils. If I had to vote today I would vote Obama but I am on the fence and am doing a lot of research.
I think that it's an important decision and while my 1 vote won't make much difference I'm going to take it seriously and try to make the best decision I can.
I'm one of the undecided's. I'll tell anyone that asks that I believe deep down that whichever candidate I vote for will be what I believe to be the lesser of two evils. If I had to vote today I would vote Obama but I am on the fence and am doing a lot of research.
I think that it's an important decision and while my 1 vote won't make much difference I'm going to take it seriously and try to make the best decision I can.
You sound very sound and wise
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