This election's x-factor (voters, generation, candidacy, campaign)

[momonkey]

Starting in 1992, the none of the above option, or third party option, began making a significant impact on the presidential elections. Some go as far as to say that the 1992 Clinton victory was at least in some part due to the tremendous popularity of H. Ross Perot who pulled in nearly 19% of the popular vote. In the 1996 election, the third party candidates combined for just over 2% of the popular vote. In 2000 a strong campaign by Ralf Nader led the third party candidates to a showing of just under 4% of the popular vote. Again in 2004 the combined total for all third party candidates was just 1% of the popular vote. Having ranged in popularity in recent elections from as much as 19.55% to just 1%, third party candidates are going to be one of the X-factors in this election.
Another important point to be made about this years third party candidates is that four of them are names recognized by ordinary voters. Cynthia MacKinny is on the Green Party ticket, Bob Barr is on the Libertarian Party ticket, while Ralf Nader and Alan Keyes will run as independents. Additionally, I've heard also that the Bubba Vote could be as high as 7%, with cross over voting between the third party folk and the Bubbas too. So the question becomes how much will the others in the race pull from the two front runners and from whom will they pull? Historically, from 1992 to present the outsiders have averaged 6.64%
MacKinny leans to the left and is likely to pull some of the liberal support from Obama while conservative Barr should have the opposite effect. Then their's the Hillary voters. And , yes, they are still out there and mad as hell. I expect to see some of the Hillary folks go to MacKinney before anyone else. She could do well this year as an alternative female candidate. I believe the net effect of having so many diverse third party candidates who are so well known means that the polls used to gage the popularity of Obama or McCain are meaningless until and unless these other presedential contenders are considered.

[bale002]

You raise a significant point. Also keep in mind that these elections are not only for the presidency, but also for one-third of the Senate, the House, and a slew of state and local offices.

Having said that, according to at least one analysis of the 1992 elections, the Ross Perot candidacy drew votes in roughly proportional amounts from the two entrenched parties (the monster has two heads, but the body is one) and first-time voters.

The real impact of the 1992 election came in 1994 (let's not forget that elections that contribute to determining the make-up of the US government are held every two years, and not only every four years) and the effect lasted until about 2000.

Given that the US electoral system is first-past-the-post, winner-take-all, the purpose of a third-party or independent vote, save for exceptional circumstances, is not to win elections, but to trigger reform in at least one of the two parties.

History shows that, though difficult, it has happened before.

Let us keep in mind that the two party-hack candidates are equally evil, there is no "lesser of two evils" in this election. Neither has a clue about economics, among their economic advisors are the same people, or their ilk, who have perverted the banking system and the entire monetary system to subsidize deadbeats at the expense of the productive, and then blame it on free markets (Leninesque genious actually).

The domestic US economy became immensely rich in the 1980s-1990s, but this new generation of the 2000s has squandered it, and worse. The monster has two heads, but the body is one. The objective of the ruling class in the US right now, regardless of party (the monster has two heads, but the body is one) is to continue sacking the treasury, to continue mis-allocating the resources of the domestic economy, and there is no prospect for change in the next two years, at least.

Therefore, regardless of the hack that assumes the presidency in the coming months, the US will most likely be in recession, possibly deep recession, over the next two years at least.

The monster has two heads, but the body is one.

A third-party vote should be considered in this context.

[normie]

I think the Libertarian Party will have an impressive showing this year. Many people are upset about the bailout.

[gsoboi]

I think we will know early on in the night on election night if Obama wins the election for sure. If Obama picks up either Virginia, North Carolina or both, we will know right then that Obama wins the election really before we hear the results from the other states.