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This election will be either a toss up (ala 2000) or an overwhelming Obama win. My guess is it will be very close. In no event do I see a mandate win by McCain.
Total RVs 27 31 Republican 35 37 Democrat
31 29 Independent
4 1 No party/Not interested in politics (VOL.)
1 * Other party (VOL.)
2 2 Don't know
100 100 39 44 Total Republican/Lean Republican 49 49 Total Democrat/Lean Democrat
%'s
2 things to consider
1) what you refer to is on page 15 & not on page 16...
Now thats out of the way..
2) All the #s you are referring to mean that of every 100 targets polled 27 were leaning Republicans and 35 were leaning democrats. Pls explain how that translates into your statement saying "poll uses an 8-10% weighted to a democrat" or perhaps kindly ellaborate on what you mean by the above quoted!
Also apologise in advance if my questions are frustrating you so, am just trying to have a decent conversation here & I assure you I am reading with my EYES OPEN, don't know any other way
2) All the #s you are referring to mean that of every 100 targets polled 27 were leaning Republicans and 35 were leaning democrats. Pls explain how that translates into your statement saying "poll uses an 8-10% weighted to a democrat" or perhaps kindly ellaborate on what you mean by the above quoted!
Those are percentages, not numbers of respondents. Notice the first column - adds up to 100%, same with the second column. The percentage of of dems to rep 35 to 27% - 8% point gap. WITH LEANERS 10% point gap. Who knew this could be so difficult?
That means W/O leaners, 8% MORE dems were polled, W/Leaners 10% MORE dems were polled.
Rasmussen has 5.7% more dems in it's polls. Last month that was closer to 9%, and earlier this year it was almost 11%, but before the GOP conv, the GOP gained 2% on the dems, after the convention, they have gained even more.
Gallup I believe weights it's polls 9% more dems than rep.
2 things to consider again......... actually 3 now; pls humor me - appreciate in advance
Quote:
Originally Posted by sanrene
Those are percentages, not numbers of respondents. Notice the first column - adds up to 100%, same with the second column. The percentage of of dems to rep 35 to 27% - 8% point gap. WITH LEANERS 10% point gap. Who knew this could be so difficult?
1) Yes Ma'am I do understand that these are %ages - Pls read what I wrote "OF every 100 targets polled 27were leaning Republicans and 35 were leaning democrats. ---- Which translates into %ages; Pls let me know if I need to explain more on this one....
Now that's out of the way...
Quote:
Originally Posted by sanrene
That means W/O leaners, 8% MORE dems were polled, W/Leaners 10% MORE dems were polled.
2) NO it doesn't mean that more democrats were polled, all it means is of the people polled there were more who were leaning democrat.
Quote:
Originally Posted by sanrene
Rasmussen has 5.7% more dems in it's polls. Last month that was closer to 9%, and earlier this year it was almost 11%, but before the GOP conv, the GOP gained 2% on the dems, after the convention, they have gained even more.
Gallup I believe weights it's polls 9% more dems than rep.
3) Are you insinuating that these polls deliberately go out and target one of the demographics more than the others? I wouldn't want to assume you think so.... pls confirm
Thanks for bearing with me
Still reading with my EYES OPEN, though have to say won't be for long for either
Last edited by vsaksena; 09-17-2008 at 06:04 PM..
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& I assure you I am reading with my EYES OPEN, don't know any other way 
