Obama; Making some Libs/Dems VERY nervous (vote, Democrats, Republicans)
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July polls don’t tell you who’s going to win in November. Just ask President Dukakis or President Gore, both of whom were well ahead in July and went on to lose in the fall (although Mr. Gore still doesn’t quite see it that way). Or ask President Clinton, who was running third in some polls after clinching his party’s nomination, and won comfortably in the fall. Polls are, at best, snapshots of the present, not predictors of the future.
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So here’s the bottom line. The polls make me nervous. Not desperate, not hopeless, not resigned, but nervous. Barack Obama should be ahead right now. Way ahead. Not even close is how it should look, even though I wouldn’t for a minute tell you that if it were that would seal the deal. But the fact that my old candidate Mike Dukakis was running better 20 years ago against George Bush than Obama is today against John McCain makes me nervous. It should be a sign to some of the whiners on my side, still worried about whether Obama is liberal enough or whether he’s doing enough to help Hillary, that it’s time to stop whining and start working. Otherwise, it will be hello President McCain.
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First, because the experience of the primaries, not to mention that of other African-American candidates, suggests that polls tend to overstate, not understate, support for black candidates. With the exception of Indiana, every pre-primary poll in a major state showed the race between Obama and Clinton to be closer than it turned out to be. It became a sort of running joke on election to see the DrudgeReport with the red siren on the top announcing that contests that Hillary would end up winning handily were, according to the exit polls that very day, too close to call.
Yep. It certainly is true. I found it interesting as the media realized this phenomenom, they became much more cautious about calling races before the actual vote total was in. They didn't trust the exit polls so much.
Susan is a favorite liberal of mine. She is right on the money and the Obamatized would do well to take note.
Obama UNDERPERFORMS a generic democrat - that has to be troubling to those that selected him.
I actually like Susan Estrich at times. She occasionally has lucid moments and makes sense. I suspect by November the ObamaPhenomenon will have run its course. And we will ALL be sick to death of the name, and feel oh-so-foolish for allowing him such meteoric rise to political fame.
Yep. It certainly is true. I found it interesting as the media realized this phenomenom, they became much more cautious about calling races before the actual vote total was in. They didn't trust the exit polls so much.
Susan is a favorite liberal of mine. She is right on the money and the Obamatized would do well to take note.
Obama UNDERPERFORMS a generic democrat - that has to be troubling to those that selected him.
Ya, the Democrats are sooooo nervous we gave him 52 MILLION last month!
You can refer to all those past elections where Dukakis and Gore were way ahead, but the fact of the matter is none of them ran after 8 years of G W Bush. A lot of Republicans are going to vote for Obama out of spite. This is something that isn't talked about much. But mark my words, it'll happen.
Not that he has my vote (neither does McCain), but I'd just about bet my house on the fact that he will be the next President.
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I suspect by November the ObamaPhenomenon will have run its course. And we will ALL be sick to death of the name, and feel oh-so-foolish for allowing him such meteoric rise to political fame.
