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Thinking about the general election in November, as a superdelegate, do you go for Hillary Clinton because Obama hasn't carried any large states except his own or do you go for Obama because you're afraid to tick off black voters?
Putting your personal candidate preferences aside, strategically speaking, if you were a superdelegate, what would you do and why?
Let me ask you another question --- Should the superdelegates, who are still in public office, take into consideration what it might mean for their own political futures if they do the wrong thing (whatever you think "the wrong thing" is)? As a voter, would you hold it against them?
How confident are you (state in percentages, like I'm 20% confident, for example) that the Democrats will win the White House in November with either of these candidates?
Thinking about the general election in November, as a superdelegate, do you go for Hillary Clinton because Obama hasn't carried any large states except his own or do you go for Obama because you're afraid to tick off black voters?
Putting your personal candidate preferences aside, strategically speaking, if you were a superdelegate, what would you do and why?
Let me ask you another question --- Should the superdelegates, who are still in public office, take into consideration what it might mean for their own political futures if they do the wrong thing (whatever you think "the wrong thing" is)? As a voter, would you hold it against them?
How confident are you (state in percentages, like I'm 20% confident, for example) that the Democrats will win the White House in September with either of these candidates?
The fact that Hillary has won the largest states is the reason why you do go for Obama as a superdelegate
Fl, CA, PA, are pretty much a non-issue during the November election because they will go Democratic no matter who the nomination is.
In order to be effective, you need to look at who carried the smaller states, and they tend to vote Republican, and from a strategic point, you need to find the one who would position themself better in the red states. That is Obama.
The fact that Hillary has won the largest states is the reason why you do go for Obama as a superdelegate
Fl, CA, PA, are pretty much a non-issue during the November election because they will go Democratic no matter who the nomination is.
In order to be effective, you need to look at who carried the smaller states, and they tend to vote Republican, and from a strategic point, you need to find the one who would position themself better in the red states. That is Obama.
The fact that Hillary has won the largest states is the reason why you do go for Obama as a superdelegate
Fl, CA, PA, are pretty much a non-issue during the November election because they will go Democratic no matter who the nomination is.
In order to be effective, you need to look at who carried the smaller states, and they tend to vote Republican, and from a strategic point, you need to find the one who would position themself better in the red states. That is Obama.
Caucuses versus primaries is an important consideration too. Caucus wins are easier than a primary for an organized campaign since they require user participation. Hillary has won more primaries.
I live in PA.. Central PA always goes Republican, Pittsburgh and Philadelphia area always go Democratic, but in elections like this, where the Republican base is not overly excited about the candidate running (McCain), central PA will stay home. The only thing that will polarize them into getting out to vote, will be if a Clinton is on the ballot, further confirming my argument that the superdelegates, if they want the best chance of winning would go for Obama.
Even without winning OH and FL, obama can cut Dubya's 35 delegate lead in half by taking MN, and wipe Dubya's lead in just 3 states Colorado (9), Nevada (5) and New Mexico (5)
Edit: Am wrong on MN because Kerry won that by it looks good there for any Dem
Obama taking Virginia (13) would be icing on the cake
And the ticket to win those 3 states
NOT sure how many states they will lose but they will win the 3 hahaha
Florida will NOT go democratic. Penn will be in play because of the bitter, white people that cling to their guns and religion.
I agree, I think Fla. will go Republican no matter who the nominee is. This is significant because Hillary, as part of her electoral strategy, has to have Fla. Obama, on the other hand, has never looked to Fla. as a must win in his path to electoral victory. Obama puts many more states in play.
BTW, just because Clinton won some big states during a primary between two Democrats is in no way indicative of how Obama would do in the GE when you have a Democrat and Republican facing off. The Clinton campaign is comparing apples and oranges.
Thinking about the general election in November, as a superdelegate, do you go for Hillary Clinton because Obama hasn't carried any large states except his own or do you go for Obama because you're afraid to tick off black voters?
Putting your personal candidate preferences aside, strategically speaking, if you were a superdelegate, what would you do and why?
This is a non-issue. If you are a superdelegate, you back the candidate who has the popular vote and the most delegates. Such a candidate represents the will of the voters of the Democratic party. To overturn the will of the people, would be stunningly anti-democratic.
People should be clear about this. Discussions about strategy in regards to superdelegates backing a particular candidate who can win in November, even though they lost in the Democratic party primaries and caucuses, are nothing more than an attempt to gloss over a deeply disturbing fact: that the Democratic leadership is being pushed to engage in anti-democratic behavior.
Thinking about the general election in November, as a superdelegate, do you go for Hillary Clinton because Obama hasn't carried any large states except his own or do you go for Obama because you're afraid to tick off black voters?
Putting your personal candidate preferences aside, strategically speaking, if you were a superdelegate, what would you do and why?
Let me ask you another question --- Should the superdelegates, who are still in public office, take into consideration what it might mean for their own political futures if they do the wrong thing (whatever you think "the wrong thing" is)? As a voter, would you hold it against them?
How confident are you (state in percentages, like I'm 20% confident, for example) that the Democrats will win the White House in November with either of these candidates?
I think they should back whichever candidate has the most votes and the most pledged delegates. The only exception I can see to this is if a superdelegate represents an area in which the constituents backed the other candidate. So a superdelegate in Hillary country could make a case for voting for her even if Obama has the popular vote and majority delegates and vice versa. The superdelegate may not be representing the will of the people at large but he or she would be representing the will of the locals.
I think the debate over who is more electable is meaningless. No one really knows for sure. Republicans were backing Hillary because they thought she'd be easier to beat and now they are wavering.. thinking it might be possible to portray Obama as a black radical after all. If this nomination process dragged on, Rush might be calling for Republicans to vote for Obama because Hillary would be too tough to take down.
My personal hunch is that Obama is a stronger general election candidate. He's either going to win big or lose big. It depends on how silly a mood the electorate is in this year. I suspect they're going to be in a pretty serious mood with $4 a gallon gas, inflation, recession, stalemate in Iraq. Obama can probably make a good case for why these realities are the direct result of Republican policies and convince the American public to take a chance on him. On the other hand, if they fall for GOP beer politics (and there is always a great chance they will) Obama may go down spectularly for being too not like them.
Even with that said though, I think Hillary would be a decent general election candidate too. She has some serious work to do with the black community if she wins the nomination and not much time to do it in, but she could repair the damage. That would probably start with putting Obama on the ticket. She's going to get near 50 percent of the vote no matter what.. that's what she pulls, just at 50 percent. She'll have to fight tooth and nail to get enough to carry her over the finish line, but I think she's capable of doing it. What she has that Obama lacks is a definite 40 to 50 percent that is going to vote for her no matter what. There is nothing the Republicans can say (they've said it all) to covince her supporters to not vote for her.
Considering all of the options, I think the most "electable" Demcoratic ticket could be Hillary/Obama. Hillary pulls her 50 percent and there is nothing the Republicans can say to take that away from her. Obama on the ticket could pull in enough new voters and kids who are excited about him and change to put the ticket over the finish line. The GOP could waste it's time and money on attack ads on the VP candidate, but that would be kind of ridiculous. How many people are going to vote against the ticket because of the VP? Anyone who would isn't voting for Hillary anyways. Obama's oratory would go a long way toward repairing any damage that occurs because of sour grapes. I don't think this ticket is going to happen necessarily, but I think it's a strong one.
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