Polls, Polls, Polls! (ethical, compare, support, presidency)

[Beach Sportsfan]

Originally Posted by WaldoKitty

Let see. They called the 2016 Election correctly in 2015. They said that Russia gate was fake. 100% correct.

How did your news do? Thought so.



The pictures on that site of people already there speak for themselves.


100,000+ coming to a Trump rally. Just like it was in Houston. You guys are simply in vast vast denial.

News flash there are over 2.5 million people in Orlando area. They are busing people into Orlando from the Villages and surrounding areas which are not even in metro area. So that's nothing. By the way 100,000 can’t fit anywhere in Orlando area so I’m sure those are like his inauguration numbers. Fake

In 2016
Orange County he lost by 24%
Osceola County he lost by 25%
Seminole he won by 2%

So they need to bus them in from Lake County and the other outside of Orlando.

This is not 2016 it’s 2019.

[Beach Sportsfan]

Originally Posted by WaldoKitty

Let's see.

2015/16

• Pollsters - "Trump Can't Win Nomination"

• NPCs -> "Trump Can't Win Nomination"

• Trump Wins Nomination

• Pollsters -> "Trump Can't Beat Hillary"

• NPCs -> "Trump Can't Beat Hillary"

• Trump Wins.

• NPCs -> "Orange Man Bad"

2019

• Pollsters -> "Trump Can't Win"

• NPCs -> "Trump Can't Win"

And we know how this story turns out. It really has to be seen to be believed.



Meanwhile Democrats can't get anyone to come to their rallies and Trump's rallies have more people at them than all the people polled this year.

It’s not 2016. You know 2ho else gets and loves big Fake rallies of people bused in? Dictators like Castro, the Kim’s, Putin.

Dictators have to manufactured crowds to feed their egos into believing everyone is for them

[Bureaucat]

Originally Posted by WaldoKitty

Let's see.

2015/16

• Pollsters - "Trump Can't Win Nomination"

• NPCs -> "Trump Can't Win Nomination"

• Trump Wins Nomination

• Pollsters -> "Trump Can't Beat Hillary"

• NPCs -> "Trump Can't Beat Hillary"

• Trump Wins.

• NPCs -> "Orange Man Bad"

2019

• Pollsters -> "Trump Can't Win"

• NPCs -> "Trump Can't Win"

And we know how this story turns out. It really has to be seen to be believed.



Meanwhile Democrats can't get anyone to come to their rallies and Trump's rallies have more people at them than all the people polled this year.

Whenever a poster uses Alt-Right terms like NPC’s it’s an indication that they’re reading from a script and have nothing original to say. You may as well try to converse with a dog baying at the moon.

[banjomike]

Originally Posted by Mazpart

All the betting sites have Trump winning easily. They are pretty much always right

This is what Oddschecker said today:

"Joe Biden: +300 Elizabeth Warren: +500
Pete Buttigieg: +600 Bernie Sanders: +650
Kamala Harris: +800 Andrew Yang: +1600


Elizabeth Warren is now as short as +500 to attain the Democratic ticket for the 2020 US Presidential Election.

The veteran senator has seen her chances of taking on Trump quadruple in as many months, having been a +2800 outside at the end of March.

In relative terms, those figures mean that oddsmakers have increased her chances from 3.5% to over 16%.

Bernie Sanders, long-time favorite in the market before Biden officially announced his campaign, has also dropped behind Pete Buttigieg in the race.

Kamala Harris makes up the top five and is the only other candidate who is deemed to be in with a chance; Andrew Yang is as long as +2500 with some books.

Oddschecker spokesperson Pete Watt: “The polls and the books are in agreement on Warren’s rise, with the Senator this week achieving double-digit numbers for the first time since announcing her campaign

“Bettors have also fallen into line, with Warren accounting for over a quarter - 27.4% - of bets placed in the previous quarter.

“Joe Biden may still be the favorite, but the race is far from run and the activity on this market will only increase as we draw closer to the election.”

What this says to me is Trump is in trouble at this moment.

With 18 months to go, however, it's not to say he will stay in this trouble all the way to the end. Really a lot can happen between now than then.

But to make that happen, Trump is going to have to change up from 2016 to win. His popularity for the past 3 years is stalled out at 42%, and he simply needs more voters to win in 2020 than he has now.

To get them, he will have to go hunting for them, something he hasn't done since he won 3 years ago.

[dashrendar4454]

Originally Posted by Bureaucat

Whenever a poster uses Alt-Right terms like NPC’s it’s an indication that they’re reading from a script and have nothing original to say. You may as well try to converse with a dog baying at the moon.

Yet you’re using radical leftist terms like “alt right”

[dashrendar4454]

Originally Posted by Beach Sportsfan

It’s not 2016. You know 2ho else gets and loves big Fake rallies of people bused in? Dictators like Castro, the Kim’s, Putin.

Dictators have to manufactured crowds to feed their egos into believing everyone is for them

So the people that were wrong about everything g will now be suddenly right? Doubt it

[dashrendar4454]

We don’t even need debates, primaries, or an election. Let’s coronate Biden now!

[dashrendar4454]

Originally Posted by mrpeatie

He is already 2.5 years into his presidency- he has 5.5 left even if re-elected. And if Dems win the Senate I assume the 'winning' will be interesting to say the least.


The polls in the last election were within margin of error- meaning Hillary's 1 and 2 point leads in state polls with 3-5 point margins of error were not wrong. People calling them leads instead of statistical ties were wrong. 10 points is so far beyond a MOE race it is ridiculous.

But even as I say a couple of things bear mentioning. We are still 16.5 months from the actual election. Biden had a serious bump when he announced. The better way to view anything is with a rolling average to see where he has settled. Also- in states with a big chasm/undecideds I think we will see the same scenario as 2016- where folks did not like Trump but in the end Republicans still voted Republican.


The big R problem from those polls is that the states that are competitive have grown instead of shrunk. This will also mean Republicans will be stretched thin trying to defend the Senate and Presidency simultaneously when Dems looking stronger in 4 states on that list with R incumbents and two states not listed with truly imperiled Rs- Az and CO. The trade themes that really helped him in Ia, Oh, MI, Wi and Pa are also less potent because the folks in those states depending on imports/exports can work against him as much as the more protectionist voters helped him in '16.


The state I would really like to see is Pa- I feel it will be 5 points more R/less D than NC. So seeing where it stands in relation would interesting.

Biden is not going to waltz to the presidency like libs claim. He is going to be ripped apart


He had been in politics for 33 years and accomplished nothing really


Is already a two time loser

Is divisive among the liberal wing of the party

Folds like a cheap suit on any issue

Once he starts actually campaigning and debating, he will be damaged severely

[Bureaucat]

Originally Posted by dashrendar4454

Yet you’re using radical leftist terms like “alt right”

Alt right is radical leftist? It’s used routinely by the mainstream media. In your world view are they “radical leftists”?

If so, how far to the right are you?

What does your little club call themselves?

Is there a secret handshake?

[WaldoKitty]

Pollsters say this man doesn't exist.

https://media.breitbart.com/media/20...er-640x480.jpg




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