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Old 06-24-2018, 03:33 PM
 
19,573 posts, read 8,535,603 times
Reputation: 10096

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Quote:
Originally Posted by magaalot View Post
Does anyone think North Korea doesn't have nukes?
Saddam denied it, whereas Kim openly brags about it.
Kim has exploded nukes and that has been independently confirmed. It is literally 100% certain that North Korea has nuclear weapons.
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Old 06-25-2018, 10:56 AM
 
Location: The State Of California
10,400 posts, read 15,599,722 times
Reputation: 4283
Quote:
Originally Posted by Spartacus713 View Post
Kim has exploded nukes and that has been independently confirmed. It is literally 100% certain that North Korea has nuclear weapons.
Agreed , but I also know beyond a" shadow of a doubt " that the UN and United States of America Allies are not going to back " A WAR " against North Korea just to add a upside to president Trump political aspirations.
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Old 06-25-2018, 11:05 AM
 
Location: Home, Home on the Front Range
25,826 posts, read 20,726,880 times
Reputation: 14818
Democrats +6 as of today, 6/25/18.



https://www.realclearpolitics.com/ep...vote-6185.html
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Old 06-25-2018, 11:17 AM
 
Location: Swiftwater, PA
18,773 posts, read 18,174,055 times
Reputation: 14783
Quote:
Originally Posted by TigerLily24 View Post

CNN had the Democrats as +18 back in December; so what? The polls will go up and down before the election. Even then; it will not be over until it is over. We listened to so many that told us that Trump should pack up and go home in 2016. It did not happen the way the polls predicted. Things can go wrong; even for the Hillary's of this world.
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Old 06-25-2018, 01:13 PM
 
Location: NE Mississippi
25,607 posts, read 17,334,751 times
Reputation: 37378
Quote:
Originally Posted by magaalot View Post
Does anyone think North Korea doesn't have nukes?
Saddam denied it, whereas Kim openly brags about it.
And that, My Friend, is just absolutely wrong.
Saddam pretended to have nukes.
Quote:
George Piro, an FBI special agent who interrogated Saddam after his capture in December 2003, said the dictator told him he used the pretence of having the weapons to deter Iran, Iraq's long-standing rival.

"For him, it was critical that he was seen as still the strong, defiant Saddam. He thought that would prevent the Iranians from reinvading Iraq," Mr Piro told 60 Minutes, the American current affairs television programme.

I don't care whether NK has nukes or not. In the future, after all arrangements are final I will care, and I will want to be assured they do not.
Iran is next.
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Old 06-25-2018, 04:32 PM
 
17,453 posts, read 9,285,984 times
Reputation: 11923
Quote:
Originally Posted by TigerLily24 View Post
It's think it's pretty cute that they are still weighting based on 2008 & 2012 Elections.
The over-sample on this one is by 9 ..... which is pretty good, they used a larger over-sample in all of 2016.

In November of 2018, we will know for sure about the "polls".
Just as we found out in 2016.
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Old 06-25-2018, 06:07 PM
 
11,988 posts, read 5,306,729 times
Reputation: 7284
In a related matter, Gallup released the first Presidential Approval Poll since the Immigration dustup over taking children from parents.

Last week, Gallup found 45% approval for Trump with 50% disapproval for a -5% overall.

This week, Trump is approved by 41% and disapproved by 55% for a net -14%.

A net loss of 9% in one week.

https://politicalwire.com/2018/06/25...gins-to-slide/

https://news.gallup.com/poll/203207/...al-weekly.aspx
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Old 06-26-2018, 11:12 AM
 
Location: Home, Home on the Front Range
25,826 posts, read 20,726,880 times
Reputation: 14818
Quote:
Originally Posted by fisheye View Post
CNN had the Democrats as +18 back in December; so what? The polls will go up and down before the election. Even then; it will not be over until it is over. We listened to so many that told us that Trump should pack up and go home in 2016. It did not happen the way the polls predicted. Things can go wrong; even for the Hillary's of this world.
Quote:
Originally Posted by Kibby View Post
It's think it's pretty cute that they are still weighting based on 2008 & 2012 Elections.
The over-sample on this one is by 9 ..... which is pretty good, they used a larger over-sample in all of 2016.

In November of 2018, we will know for sure about the "polls".
Just as we found out in 2016.


The latest version of the OP's poll, Dems up by 7.6.

Reuters Polling


I notice that you didn't argue the soundness of the original results, so surely these must be satisfactory as well.

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Old 06-26-2018, 11:38 AM
 
Location: Free From The Oppressive State
30,297 posts, read 23,777,638 times
Reputation: 38761
It's like no one learned from the 2016 Election season. I do not rely on polls, they mean nothing.
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Old 06-26-2018, 11:46 AM
 
5,286 posts, read 6,224,555 times
Reputation: 3132
Quote:
Originally Posted by Three Wolves In Snow View Post
It's like no one learned from the 2016 Election season. I do not rely on polls, they mean nothing.
The polls were fairly accurate in 2016. The problem was that you had too many states within the margin of error to have a truly accurate picture. Nate Silver actually had an article a week or two before the election that explained Clinton's lead was really within one statistical anomaly of being reversed.


That said- Dems face the same issue they did in 2016. Polls do not matter, voters do. And how those voters break down into individual districts matters more.
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