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I have long thought that Silver was over-rated. The far-left loved him in 2012, because he correctly predicted Electoral College outcome. (I also think that the far-left loved Silver because he is himself very liberal.) Yet, Silver really received way too much credit for his 2012 predictions. Independent of Silver's analysis, the Real Clear Politics averages of state polls correctly predicted which way 49 out of the 50 states would vote in 2012. In Florida, Romney had a razor-thin lead; thus, it was hardly shocking when Obama won a narrow victory in that state.
He apologized and accepted blame. No matter what I think about him I will give him credit for that. We will see if he refrains from being a pundit and sticks to numbers or not.
I have long thought that Silver was over-rated. The far-left loved him in 2012, because he correctly predicted Electoral College outcome. (I also think that the far-left loved Silver because he is himself very liberal.) Yet, Silver really received way too much credit for his 2012 predictions. Independent of Silver's analysis, the Real Clear Politics averages of state polls correctly predicted which way 49 out of the 50 states would vote in 2012. In Florida, Romney had a razor-thin lead; thus, it was hardly shocking when Obama won a narrow victory in that state.
He is not "very liberal". 538 is owned by a big media corporation and him and his collegues are serving their financial overlords. He is a corporatist who support the status quo.
Well, score one for the folks who say it is science, it has to be right. No. This is a fallible world, with fallible people. Silver acknowledged as much and about human bias; to the point of even how statistical formulas, models and coding have bias introduced by the....human. It is impossible to not show bias, not that bias is even an inherently bad thing as some on here always condemn.
He is not "very liberal". 538 is owned by a big media corporation and him and his collegues are serving their financial overlords. He is a corporatist who support the status quo.
Liberals are corporatists. Wall Street went 2-1 Obama over McCain, and they're all in, Hillary:
Communism as beneficiary of finance capital is nothing new. Paul Warburg delivered V. I. Lenin's 1917 revolution into St. Petersburg, by way of Zurich, on board the notorious "sealed train" of $10 million in gold.
Well, score one for the folks who say it is science, it has to be right. No. This is a fallible world, with fallible people. Silver acknowledged as much and about human bias; to the point of even how statistical formulas, models and coding have bias introduced by the....human. It is impossible to not show bias, not that bias is even an inherently bad thing as some on here always condemn.
I get what you are saying.
I guess my problem is not only with Silver, but with the liberals who treated him as a near-messiah after his correct 2012 prediction. IMO, the lavish praise likely went to Silver's head.
As I indicated earlier, Silver was hardly Nostradamus when he predicted the 332-206 Obama victory, as the polls correctly predicted the outcome in 49 states (with Romney being the slight favorite in Florida). Yet, many liberals seemed to treat him with an absurd amount of reverence.
And being wrong on Trump getting the nomination was not the only terrible prediction he made, either. In 2014, he predicted that Greg Orman (who lost by double digits) would defeat Pat Roberts in the Kansas Senate race. And this year, he pegged Hillary Clinton as a huge favorite to win the Michigan Democratic Presidential Primary.
I guess my problem is not only with Silver, but with the liberals who treated him as a near-messiah after his correct 2012 prediction. IMO, the lavish praise likely went to Silver's head.
As I indicated earlier, Silver was hardly Nostradamus when he predicted the 332-206 Obama victory, as the polls correctly predicted the outcome in 49 states (with Romney being the slight favorite in Florida). Yet, many liberals seemed to treat him with an absurd amount of reverence.
And being wrong on Trump getting the nomination was not the only terrible prediction he made, either. In 2014, he predicted that Greg Orman (who lost by double digits) would defeat Pat Roberts in the Kansas Senate race. And this year, he pegged Hillary Clinton as a huge favorite to win the Michigan Democratic Presidential Primary.
Could be worse...could be Carl 'Ham' Rove with Megyn Kelly jumping down your throat on election night...
Silver's predictions are based on numbers and trends that don't necessarily reflect what is going on in the voter's minds on that day. The American populace can be fairly unpredictable...
I can't edit the thread titles, but I obviously meant to say "Almighty" instead of "Almight." Sorry for the mistake.
The Almighty forgives you, two Hail Mary's and an Our Father will do.
Now go in peace.
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