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He was right in 2008 as well. NOBODY expected Donald Trump to do well. And by normal rules of politics he shouldn't of been able to. What you are is basically the person who cherry picks the once instance someone is wrong to justify why they should never be trusted.
Respect and success for someone like Silver is based on accuracy of his predictions. He's previously been quite accurate and now he flops so how much to value his future predictions. I think you consider his analysis as one of the best in his field but things can always change. I certainly never thought Trump would run the table on the Republican side either.
Respect and success for someone like Silver is based on accuracy of his predictions. He's previously been quite accurate and now he flops so how much to value his future predictions. I think you consider his analysis as one of the best in his field but things can always change. I certainly never thought Trump would run the table on the Republican side either.
Neither did I honestly. I expected the election to run normally and almost everyone to drop out before South Carolina though as well. I'm not so sure he would have won had the GOP rallied around one alternative.
I give Silver credit for falling on his sword. He is about the only one who has admitted they completely misjudged this election.
It's obvious the MSM, and other idiotic pollsters have no intention of doing so.
What they all got, and continue to get wrong, is the anger of the electorate towards status quo career politicians, the political parties, and the "elite". All these overpaid, pampered, insulated, and self important pundits & pollsters still see the election in terms of Red vs Blue, White vs non-White, etc etc etc. Until they figure this, expect continued derangement.
He was right in 2008 as well. NOBODY expected Donald Trump to do well. And by normal rules of politics he shouldn't of been able to. What you are is basically the person who cherry picks the once instance someone is wrong to justify why they should never be trusted.
The RCP simple average of most recent polls outperformed him in 2008. Wow. He was so right in 2008, a simple average of polls beat all of his analysis. Praise him to the high heavens.
You know who did expect Trump do well, the RCP simple average of polls. Nate Silver put all of this thought and analysis to tell us why the polls would be wrong. If anything they were wrong to the opposite side.
Quote:
Originally Posted by Dole-McCain Republican
I have long thought that Silver was over-rated.
He is overrated. Since 2008 when he gained fame, you would have actually out-performed Nate Silver if you just took the RCP average - which is just a simple average of recent polls. People forget, he was less accurate in the 2012 primaries as well than just looking at simple average of polls.
So all of his analysis, weighting of polls, compensation for bias within polls did squat.
Quote:
Originally Posted by PCALMike
He is not "very liberal".
He started analyzing the polls, because he was an Obama fan.
Right there, is where human bias gets introduced. Hypothesis, then modeling. As the saying goes, even a broke clock is right twice a day.
[quote=michiganmoon;44124807]The RCP simple average of most recent polls outperformed him in 2008. Wow. He was so right in 2008, a simple average of polls beat all of his analysis. Praise him to the high heavens.
You know who did expect Trump do well, the RCP simple average of polls. Nate Silver put all of this thought and analysis to tell us why the polls would be wrong. If anything they were wrong to the opposite side.
He is overrated. Since 2008 when he gained fame, you would have actually out-performed Nate Silver if you just took the RCP average - which is just a simple average of recent polls. People forget, he was less accurate in the 2012 primaries as well than just looking at simple average of polls.
So all of his analysis, weighting of polls, compensation for bias within polls did squat.
He started analyzing the polls, because he was an Obama fan.[/QUOTE]
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