Please register to participate in our discussions with 2 million other members - it's free and quick! Some forums can only be seen by registered members. After you create your account, you'll be able to customize options and access all our 15,000 new posts/day with fewer ads.
Like in 2000, Romney will likely win about 30 states (of smaller avg population) and Obama about 20 (larger avg populations.
I keep hearing Libs and some pollsters talk about Obama losing in the popular vote but winning due to winning key battleground state. While mathematically possible, it's highly improbable because Romney will already have about a 20 electoral college (EC) lead (30*2 - 20*2) before considering the breakout of electoral vates by winning the majority of votes in the individual 50 states. So it's much much more likely that Romney wins if 1 candidate loses the popular vote but win the election.
Many of the polls that have Obama leading in the "key battleground states" also have a huge Dem advantage in their polling that won't be there on election day.
However, Cal Hobson, a long time, leading former Democrat legislator from Oklahoma disagrees. He predicts Obama will win the electoral college by a landslide, amounting to 304 for Obama, 234 for Romney. The popular vote will be: 51.5% for Obama and 48.5% for Romney. Interesting he allowed none for 3rd party candidates, who, so far, aren't showing up in polls.
Hobson's 5 Reasons Why Obama Will Win:
1. Obama is more likable.
2. Romney is a "nobody" who lacks intensity.
3. Romney's refusal to release more tax returns.
4. Romney's selection of Paul Ryan, since Ryan has trouble with the truth.
5. Republicans chancing on banking on voters coming to the conclusion that indeed they are not better off than they were four years ago.
Hobson concedes there may be an October surprise or Obama blows the remaining debates.
The POINT was who would win a split between E. College & Popular vote
Quote:
Originally Posted by StillwaterTownie
However, Cal Hobson, a long time, leading former Democrat legislator from Oklahoma disagrees. He predicts Obama will win the electoral college by a landslide, amounting to 304 for Obama, 234 for Romney. The popular vote will be: 51.5% for Obama and 48.5% for Romney. Interesting he allowed none for 3rd party candidates, who, so far, aren't showing up in polls.
Hobson's 5 Reasons Why Obama Will Win:
1. Obama is more likable.
2. Romney is a "nobody" who lacks intensity.
3. Romney's refusal to release more tax returns.
4. Romney's selection of Paul Ryan, since Ryan has trouble with the truth.
5. Republicans chancing on banking on voters coming to the conclusion that indeed they are not better off than they were four years ago.
Hobson concedes there may be an October surprise or Obama blows the remaining debates.
Joe blow on the street corner and the Univesity of Colorado 100% statistically accurate scientific poll claims that Romeny will win in a landslide because:
1. Obama increased the debt more than the last 6 President's combined.
2. Poverty highest since 1950's
3. Unemployment highest since the 1930's
4. Average income down 15%
5. Biden is an idiotic ass.
6. Obama lacks any passion
Like in 2000, Romney will likely win about 30 states (of smaller avg population) and Obama about 20 (larger avg populations.
I keep hearing Libs and some pollsters talk about Obama losing in the popular vote but winning due to winning key battleground state. While mathematically possible, it's highly improbable because Romney will already have about a 20 electoral college (EC) lead (30*2 - 20*2) before considering the breakout of electoral vates by winning the majority of votes in the individual 50 states. So it's much much more likely that Romney wins if 1 candidate loses the popular vote but win the election.
Many of the polls that have Obama leading in the "key battleground states" also have a huge Dem advantage in their polling that won't be there on election day.
You believe that the Democrats won't turn out in an election where the numbers are closing?
Better not bet money on it! While the Democrats haven't been as noisy as they were in 2008, they are still solidly behind their guy, and are just as determined as they were last time.
While there are certainly going to be some disenchanted independents who won't vote for him again, these voters will be offset by the larger turnout among first-time Latino voters and first-time female voters. Those two groups are both quiet, but they're both big and have grown since 2008.
The point of this thread is who is more likely to win a split in case 1 candidate wins popular vote & other wins E Colle
Quote:
Originally Posted by banjomike
You believe that the Democrats won't turn out in an election where the numbers are closing?
Better not bet money on it! While the Democrats haven't been as noisy as they were in 2008, they are still solidly behind their guy, and are just as determined as they were last time.
While there are certainly going to be some disenchanted independents who won't vote for him again, these voters will be offset by the larger turnout among first-time Latino voters and first-time female voters. Those two groups are both quiet, but they're both big and have grown since 2008.
Agree that turnout will be a huge factor in determining the election. Still nobody has addressed the premise of why Romney is much more likely to win a split vote with 1 candidate winning popular vote and the other winning the Electoral College vote as happened in 2000.
Is there no smart Dem to challenge this logic...Spock?
Many of the polls that have Obama leading in the "key battleground states" also have a huge Dem advantage in their polling that won't be there on election day.
Joe blow on the street corner and the Univesity of Colorado 100% statistically accurate scientific poll claims that Romeny will win in a landslide because:
1. Obama increased the debt more than the last 6 President's combined.
2. Poverty highest since 1950's
3. Unemployment highest since the 1930's
4. Average income down 15%
5. Biden is an idiotic ass.
6. Obama lacks any passion
Joe blow on the street corner and the Univesity of Colorado 100% statistically accurate scientific poll claims that Romeny will win in a landslide because:
1. Obama increased the debt more than the last 6 President's combined.
2. Poverty highest since 1950's
3. Unemployment highest since the 1930's
4. Average income down 15%
5. Biden is an idiotic ass.
6. Obama lacks any passion
When you can't win the argument, attack the presenter of the argument, it's the ony argument you have.
Please register to post and access all features of our very popular forum. It is free and quick. Over $68,000 in prizes has already been given out to active posters on our forum. Additional giveaways are planned.
Detailed information about all U.S. cities, counties, and zip codes on our site: City-data.com.
Please register to participate in our discussions with 2 million other members - it's free and quick! Some forums can only be seen by registered members. After you create your account, you'll be able to customize options and access all our 15,000 new posts/day with fewer ads.
The POINT was who would win a split between E. College & Popular vote
