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#1 President Obama himself or his campaign manager must think that it is close in Michigan. He has been spending money here a lot. Obama ads every time I turn on the TV. He even ran a lot of anti-Romney ads here during the primary trying to help Santorum out too. Do you think Obama is that dumb to be pouring money into a state not in play?
#2 NY Times' Parker says Romney has closed the gap and put the state into play.
#3 The Rasmussen poll only had 500 people surveyed. The two polls with 1,783 and 1,010 people surveyed has the race a dead heat. 3 of the last 4 polls in the state show a statistical tie.
#4 Obama's approval rating in the state is at 47%...not a great number.
When was the last time Michigan voted republican in a presidential election? Oh ok, nothing to see here folks.
1988, but that's precisely what makes these polls good news for Romney and the GOP. Because it hasn't gone GOP in a presidential election since 1988, Democrats apparently mistakenly thought MI was a state they could count on for sure, but now poll after poll is released showing that may not be the case. That's very bad news for Obama and Democrats. Romney and the GOP likely didn't think MI was a state they had a real chance in, but now that it's clear MI is a battleground state, Romney and the GOP have several new paths to 270 electoral votes.
I didn't think MI was really in play, but now I'm starting to think otherwise, since almost every poll that has come out recently seems to confirm that it is.
In 2008, NC, IN, and VA went to Obama, even though NC had last gone Democrat in a presidential election in 1976 and IN and VA had last gone Democrat in 1964. States that don't go for one party for a very long time do flip some years.
Last edited by afoigrokerkok; 06-21-2012 at 08:27 AM..
When was the last time Michigan voted republican in a presidential election? Oh ok, nothing to see here folks.
Great Logic. We are all in awe of your reasoning skills. When was the last time North Carolina voted Democrat, 1976.....it would be impossible for Obama to have won that in 2008.
Obama won Michigan by 16.5%, the fact that he is now in basically a statistical tie, says a lot about Obama's failures.
Great Logic. We are all in awe of your reasoning skills. When was the last time North Carolina voted Democrat, 1976.....it would be impossible for Obama to have won that in 2008.
Obama won Michigan by 16.5%, the fact that he is now in basically a statistical tie, says a lot about Obama's failures.
I'm not so sure. I hold the belief you are witnessing the beginnings of a political realignment, based on demographics. Yesterday I posted in this thread that campaign managers are pretty smart when it comes to demographics, and reading voting trends into this. The President made the decision to stop deportation of immigrants between the ages of 16 and 25 with no criminal record last week. I contend this action was predicated on galvinizing the Latino vote.
You have state by state polls tracking this presidential race. You will notice that states in the upper midwest, those that voted for the president, these new polls show a tightening of the race. However, look at the polls in Nevada, New Mexico and Colorado, for that matter, Florida as well. These states margins are roughly equivalent to 2008. These states also have a larger percentage of Latino voters. The first three states have an especially high rate of Mexican Americans, the demographic that benefits from this new legislation most.
Meanwhile, the older, whiter demographic in the rust belt continues to be plagued by high single digit unemployment and shrinking wages. Therefore, I conclude there will be a conservative shift in these areas, and the younger, browner populations in the western states will trend Democratic in the next 10-20 years. You are seeing the beginnings of this right now, and sadly, I believe, you are witnessing an ethnic/racial polarization of this country, whites vs non-whites.
I'm not so sure. I hold the belief you are witnessing the beginnings of a political realignment, based on demographics. Yesterday I posted in this thread that campaign managers are pretty smart when it comes to demographics, and reading voting trends into this. The President made the decision to stop deportation of immigrants between the ages of 16 and 25 with no criminal record last week. I contend this action was predicated on galvinizing the Latino vote.
You have state by state polls tracking this presidential race. You will notice that states in the upper midwest, those that voted for the president, these new polls show a tightening of the race. However, look at the polls in Nevada, New Mexico and Colorado, for that matter, Florida as well. These states margins are roughly equivalent to 2008. These states also have a larger percentage of Latino voters. The first three states have an especially high rate of Mexican Americans, the demographic that benefits from this new legislation most.
Meanwhile, the older, whiter demographic in the rust belt continues to be plagued by high single digit unemployment and shrinking wages. Therefore, I conclude there will be a conservative shift in these areas, and the younger, browner populations in the western states will trend Democratic in the next 10-20 years. You are seeing the beginnings of this right now, and sadly, I believe, you are witnessing an ethnic/racial polarization of this country, whites vs non-whites.
Therefore, Massachusetts is more conservative than Texas
Romney is up 2 points in a poll 5 months before the election!!!! That's it, the election is over, Obama needs to throw in the towel. President Romney, our next POTUS.
Great Logic. We are all in awe of your reasoning skills. When was the last time North Carolina voted Democrat, 1976.....it would be impossible for Obama to have won that in 2008.
Obama won Michigan by 16.5%, the fact that he is now in basically a statistical tie, says a lot about Obama's failures.
Isn't Romney from Michigan, if he can't even win his own state then it says a lot about his appeal
Isn't Romney from Michigan, if he can't even win his own state then it says a lot about his appeal
Yes, Lincoln lost Kentucky where he was born -- says a lot about his appeal.
Woodrow Wilson lost New Jersey where he made his career and name -- says a lot about his appeal.
Polk lost the state where he was born and where he made his name -- says a lot about his appeal.
Wouldn't you agree that it is a bit simplistic to just look at where they were born and raised in determining appeal? Is it poor logic to not look at things like Michigan being a blue state in presidential elections for quite sometime? If Obama was born in Wyoming or Alabama - do you honestly think he would be polling significantly better there right now?
I am just asking that we think clearly and drop the tired out drivel one liners that don't actually hold much water.
The fact is Obama won the Great Lakes Region by nice margins -- Michigan by 16.5%. Now Obama is being hotly contested in Michigan, Indiana, Ohio, Wisconsin, and Pennsylvania -- all states he won.
It has to be concerning to Obama to have won all of those states some by margins in the double digits and now be fighting for them. Romney could win the Great Lakes Region. It is in play...except for Illinois and Minnesota (and New York if we count that as Great Lakes).
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