USAToday/Gallup Swing State Poll: All Tied Up (Ron Paul, voters, campaign)
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PRINCETON, NJ -- In the first USA Today/Gallup swing-state poll conducted since Mitt Romney became the presumptive Republican nominee, Romney and President Barack Obama are nearly tied -- 45% vs. 47%, respectively -- among registered voters in the 12 battleground states that make up the poll.
Obama did have a 9 point lead last month in this "swing state" poll.
That lead has evaporated.
Another really good thing about this poll is the states USAToday/Gallup list as "swingers".
Quote:
Colorado, Florida, Iowa, Michigan, Nevada, New Hampshire, New Mexico, North Carolina, Ohio, Pennsylvania, Virginia, and Wisconsin.
The president and the former Massachusetts governor start their head-to-head contest essentially even among registered voters — Obama 47%, Romney 45% — in the dozen battleground states likely to determine the election's outcome. That's closer than the lead of 9 percentage points for Obama in the Swing States survey in late March.
The president faces a more serious issue, Newhouse says: Lagging ratings on managing the economy, the issue both campaigns predict will dominate the campaign.
Yeah, the election is going to be all about the economy...and obama's record.
"But the poll also finds a reversal in what has been a key GOP asset in the five previous battleground surveys taken since last fall: an edge in enthusiasm among voters. For the first time, Democrats are more likely than Republicans to say they are extremely or very enthusiastic about voting — a shift from a 14-percentage-point GOP advantage at the end of last year to an 11-point deficit now."
Romney has to continue to open his mouth and speak. Also, he doesn't have demographics on his side.
"But the poll also finds a reversal in what has been a key GOP asset in the five previous battleground surveys taken since last fall: an edge in enthusiasm among voters. For the first time, Democrats are more likely than Republicans to say they are extremely or very enthusiastic about voting — a shift from a 14-percentage-point GOP advantage at the end of last year to an 11-point deficit now."
Romney has to continue to open his mouth and speak. Also, he doesn't have demographics on his side.
Oh, don't you worry, after a bruising primary that's to be expected.
As the poll analysis says;
Quote:
The president faces a more serious issue, Newhouse says: Lagging ratings on managing the economy, the issue both campaigns predict will dominate the campaign.
Think about it....Romney is dead even with obama even with the enthusiasm level less for Mitt...right now....according to this poll.
I follow Intrade, which has turned out to be the most reliable polling. I noticed after Gingrich suspended his campaign, Romney lost two points at Intrade and has stayed at 36%.
Today, it shows Obama having 59.1% (fluctuating between 59% and 60%) to Romney's 36.1% chance of winning.
Percentages could change after Convention, but it is something to watch.
Romney has to continue to open his mouth and speak.
So does Biden.
Not to mention, Romney has become a much better speaker - giving much better speeches recently.
Quote:
Originally Posted by crbcrbrgv
Also, he doesn't have demographics on his side.
You continually say this but do you think these polls do not include blacks or Hispanics? If they are included in the polls, then how is this relevant?
I follow Intrade, which has turned out to be the most reliable polling. I noticed after Gingrich suspended his campaign, Romney lost two points at Intrade and has stayed at 36%.
Today, it shows Obama having 59.1% (fluctuating between 59% and 60%) to Romney's 36.1% chance of winning.
Percentages could change after Convention, but it is something to watch.
Intrade is not a poll.
The reason Romney's chances seem to have decreased on Intrade is because Paul's chances have increased. They say Romney only has a 94.7% chance of winning the Republican nomination and say that Ron Paul has a 3% chance of being elected President.
FYI - Obama's chances were ~61% not too long ago.
And percentages will continue to change (one way or the other) before the convention.
When Michigan and Pennsylvania are being counted as the "swing states," you know Obama is toast.
The failure of the USA Poll is it doesn't break it down by state. One can loss big in one state and squeak out narrow victories in most and thus win, while the totals show even.
The failure of the USA Poll is it doesn't break it down by state. One can loss big in one state and squeak out narrow victories in most and thus win, while the totals show even.
I think you are pointing something out that few remember: all it takes is 1 vote more for candidate 1 over candidate 2 to win the electorial in a state. I pay more attention to the state by state polls even though I am not a believer in polls particularly. I think it is a little too early for celebration on either side. It looks like we are headed for a very close election unless there is something very unusual about to happen.
As I have said when libs mention the polls in favor of obama...the election is a long way off. There will be many shifts in the coming months. Nothing is in the bag for EITHER candidate. This election will swing on the economy and it's state leading up to november.
I predict no clear winner until election night. It will be close
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