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LBear, let me add a couple of other related quotes:
The point is that all the hype, fear mongering, experts, etc., nobody really knows what will happen. It's a 50/50 shot in the dark. Nobody knows the future.
“Houses cost too much for the mass market. Today’s average price is out of reach for two-thirds of all buyers”
- Science Digest 1948 (average price at the time: $8,000)
“The era of easy profits in real estate may be drawing to a close.”
- Money Magazine 1981
The point is that all the hype, fear mongering, experts, etc., nobody really knows what will happen. It's a 50/50 shot in the dark. Nobody knows the future.
I agree that nobody knows the future with certainty, but I see some things materializing with far greater than 50% probability. Most of them are bad for the average deeply-indebted homeower/consumer.
That said, Wall Street's robber baron proxies in Treasury and the Fed are in panicked intervention mode and have made markets so unpredictable that you risk getting killed by the whip-sawing of the dragon's tail in any position you can take. Moral of that story, for me, is to stay well clear of those markets while the system of ponzimonetizicorrupticapitalism goes through its death throes, and to hope the republic and the currency survives our collective stupidity. I'm not at all certain that they will. We've screwed up very badly this time, and history shows that nations can and do fail under stresses like these.
I absolutely agree with you, Bob. People can pray to whatever God they know--or to whatever financial talking head that will say what they want to hear--but the fact is that American body politic, businesss, individual, and government has blatantly and continually sinned financially for at least a couple of decades now. "Hoping" that things will be OK is not going to be enough--some serious financial and lifestyle repentence is what is called for--but few want to take that admittedly painful road. They are, instead, begging--from every corner of America--for some savior to save their sorry financial ***es from their financial "flagrante delicto." Unfortunately, the road to financial hell--and, as you point out, endangerment of the social, political, and economic fabric of the Republic--is paved with such false hopes tied to hanging on to discredited values.
This second story had some interesting national stats from the AP, such as analysis of data from 2,000 cities and towns across the nation compared the 2005-2007 survey data with the 2000 census. It shows:
- Median household income dropped in 79% of cities and towns.
- Unemployment rates increased in 71% of cities and towns.
- Median home values jumped in 92% of studied cities.
The Daily Camera has a forecast for the Colorado economy, too:
Gloomy economic forecast for Colorado Boulder County a relative bright spot (http://www.dailycamera.com/news/2008/dec/08/gloomy-economic-forecast-colorado/ - broken link)
Quote:
Monday, December 8, 2008
Next year, thousands of Coloradans will lose their jobs, retail sales will be sluggish and the state’s housing market will continue to slide, according the 44th annual economic forecast released Monday from the University of Colorado.
Even so, the state’s outlook is a little rosier than the country’s, according to economist Rich Wobbekind, and Boulder County’s forecast is downright sunny — by comparison.
. . .
Wobbekind said he expects the state will lose 4,000 jobs next year, bringing the Colorado unemployment rate to 6.5 percent. The 2009 national forecast is for a 7.5 percent unemployment rate. . .
Tucker Hart Adams has been pretty quiet lately...isn't she the dolt who was saying that things were looking good for Colorado?
She didn't say things were looking good for COLO, and she's not a dolt by any stretch. She's the retired Chief Economist of U.S. Bank, in which legendary investor Warren Buffett has a sizable stake.
She predicted we already were in a recession in late 2007, and she was right. The NBER says the current recession "officially" started in Dec 2007, just after I caught her presentation at UC-Denver in late Sept 2007. My notes from that event are at: https://www.city-data.com/forum/1622419-post6.html
She said the worst of the housing problem was behind us, and for COLO, she was largely correct. Our impacts have been well less than the states of CA, NV, AZ and FL, which are still getting clobbered. In her presentation she predicted recession for 2-3 quarters of 2008. She was right, though it looks like the recession will be for all 4 quarters of 2008, and into 2009.
I'd read some articles where she was referenced as saying things were all good for CO...but this goes back a ways. Haven't seen any recent mention of her in local media...thanks for the links...I stand corrected!
For some reason I was thinking that she'd recently painted a rosy picture...maybe I was confusing her name with that guy who represents the NAR (?)
The Daily Camera has a forecast for the Colorado economy, too:
Gloomy economic forecast for Colorado Boulder County a relative bright spot (http://www.dailycamera.com/news/2008/dec/08/gloomy-economic-forecast-colorado/ - broken link)
From the article:
Frances Draper, executive director of the Boulder Economic Council:
“Boulder is pretty well positioned not to crater,” she said.
The county’s strength is in the mix of employers in the area, including thriving aerospace, biotechnology, renewable energy and natural and organic products industries.
I guess "not cratering" is a sign of strength??
There are lots of warning flags in three of the four sectors she mentions. Biotechnology depends heavily on venture capital investment which is vanishing rapidly due to global deleveraging. Most biotech enterprises do not have any cash flow to sustain them--when the VC funds dry up, they die nearly immediately. Aerospace is under heavy pressure as funding for expansion and modernization is being pulled way back. And renewable energy projects are being shelved with oil at <$45/bbl and dropping.
I wouldn't be counting my chickens quite so fast if I were them.
that guy who represents the NAR (?) = Lawrence Yun
If you believe anything that comes out of his mouth you are the kind of person I'm looking for. Have I got a deal for you! I'm selling 10 acres of my Colorado oceanfront property at a price you can't afford to pass up. You owe it to yourself and your family to do whatever it takes to get er done. This is a once in every ten lifetimes opportunity.
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