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It seems like every recession ends and usually moves into a bubble.
The early 1980s Recession ended when Reagan started flooding the economy with deficit spending
The Early 1990s Recession ended also due to massive deficit spending and the start of the tech boom which turned into a bubble
The end of the Dot.com and 9/11 Recession recession ended due to cheap credit, government, personal and corporate debt and massive increases in home prices.
How will the current recession ever end? (Massive infrastructure spending, new technology, War with Iran, more cheap credit, a new realesate bubble??)
I'd bet on infrastructure and/or "green"/global warming conversion.
If people start to finally take Global Warming seriously, they'll realize it's a bigger threat than any war and a bigger priority than any greed-based prosperity. Based on my understanding of what global warming is predicted to do, I'm amazed there hasn't been a worldwide "all hands on deck" movement to change the culture rapidly enough to stop it.
WWII had kids collecting metal in their wagons, ladies donating their pantyhose, people rationed on gas, etc. Everyone had their duty to the cause. In theory, the planet is having a climate meltdown-- where is our reaction?
I'd bet on infrastructure and/or "green"/global warming conversion.
If people start to finally take Global Warming seriously, they'll realize it's a bigger threat than any war and a bigger priority than any greed-based prosperity. Based on my understanding of what global warming is predicted to do, I'm amazed there hasn't been a worldwide "all hands on deck" movement to change the culture rapidly enough to stop it.
WWII had kids collecting metal in their wagons, ladies donating their pantyhose, people rationed on gas, etc. Everyone had their duty to the cause. In theory, the planet is having a climate meltdown-- where is our reaction?
For one I do not believe in that, however I willing to give insight into why no-one is doing anything.
The Modern age is about laziness and letting machines do all the work.
Being "green," however you want to define that, is a pretty broad group of practices. We could be talking about cleaner energy, or Mediterranean tuna fishing practices, or building homes with less stormwater runoff. In most cases it involves consuming less, or producing something at higher cost. I'm of the opinion that our "greening" will be more of a benefit to long-term stability than it will be to short-term economic growth.
I figure that we'll just stagnate until we invent something useful, or we do something stupid and create another bubble. Both are a matter of time.
We're not in the same position as we were 10/20/30 years ago. Manufacturing has switched places with the financial sector, so we can't exactly build our way out of this; if I'm guessing - and I don't like my answer - the recovery will have to come on a global scale.
If the weather people could be trusted to predict next weekend's forcast, perhaps the bigger scale would get more attention.
It will have to be something liike the techs or houisng. We are not talking about governamnt cost and infrastructure and green is gpoing to cost the governamnt plenty. I thyni9k natural gas will be the next methnol until it gets shoprt. No we need something that will pay taxes not use themn up.Before we can do much with either we need to cut the deficit deep;y because of the cost to government. I have no idea but then none really predict the tech boom unitl it had started. We cpol;d be in for a long ten years wiht very slow growth ahead. Some places even long untiol they shift economies
It seems like every recession ends and usually moves into a bubble.
The early 1980s Recession ended when Reagan started flooding the economy with deficit spending
The Early 1990s Recession ended also due to massive deficit spending and the start of the tech boom which turned into a bubble
The end of the Dot.com and 9/11 Recession recession ended due to cheap credit, government, personal and corporate debt and massive increases in home prices.
How will the current recession ever end? (Massive infrastructure spending, new technology, War with Iran, more cheap credit, a new realesate bubble??)
Yes, this is definitely Dingler back again with the endless questions.
This poster asks a lot of rhetorical questions but rarely contributes to threads.
Lowering our standard of living and wages so we can compete on a global scale.
We spend 800 billion on foreign oil. That gives us a great incentive to produce electric cars and renewable energy. Electricity is produced in the US so when we buy electricity we are buying something that is made in the USA. The US has tons of coal and a lot of natural gas as well. If all our cars operated on electricity that is 800 billion that would be circulating in the US economy creating jobs for Americans. Not going to finance middle eastern regimes and oil tycoons.
We need to let the big, inefficient companies fail so we can get new more efficient companies in. If GM can't produce good cars, let them fail. We will let other automakers come in with more efficient models that can compete globally. However, maybe these smaller companies can't make it because GM is getting all of the bailouts instead of their company. For example, Aptera motors is bringing out a 300 MPG equivalent electric car. If we gave them a billion or two they would be able to ramp up production pretty fast. Once they get their electric car to mass production maybe they will be able to drop the MSRP from 30k to 20k. Another example is the smart fortwo, a small two seater car with an MSRP of around 13-20k (depending on model) which gets 36MPG. The waiting list for this car is around 18 months!!!!! Why are we subsidizing GM when our tax dollars could be going to help the smart fortwo company increase production of that car! Obviously, there is massive demand for it.
This is where we get in trouble. We are constantly trying to subsidize industries where people don't want to buy the goods. The free market has told us that the consumers don't want big, gas guzzling, expensive cars anymore. The demand is for small, aerodynamic, high MPG, plug-in electric cars. So why aren't we trying to help those industries bring their products to market faster? I am assuming the answer to this question is, "follow the money" and, "to maintain the status-quo"
The biggest thing we need to work on is finding some sort of niche to exploit so we can become an exporting nation not an importing nation. Right now the number one thing we export is debt in the form of USD and treasury bills. That is unsustainable. We should be exporting renewable energy, cars, hydrogen, food etc. That is what builds the wealth of a nation. Exporting goods that we can produce efficiently and importing goods that other nations can produce efficiently. We subsidize some of our best industries (farming) so farmers can make a couple bucks more. We should not be subsidizing them but rather, helping them to export their excess crops to countries who will buy those crops.
Unfortunately I do not see these things happening for a while because they involve a great loss of jobs in the short term, bankruptcy of some of our oldest companies and a massive shift of power. We elect politicians to office and positions of power. Politicians are designed to maintain the status quo and change little to nothing at all. In reality, we should be electing the best problem solvers we have in this country. People like engineers, scientists and others who are at the forefront of technological advance. Those are the people who solve the problems and they are the people who have lifted man up from starvation, poverty and other things we can't live without (ie .cars).
Last edited by killer2021; 11-10-2008 at 06:43 PM..
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