The DFW housing market is NOT sustainable (Dallas, Austin: apartment, employment)

[TurtleCreek80]

Originally Posted by NJ Brazen_3133

Here are some towns outside DFW. The commute is comparable to commutes made by people in the other major metros who sought out cheaper housing. Plenty of cheap abandoned homes.


https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=q6q0CFbDdCQ


https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=PxsC5gjqpYc

What are you even talking about? Paris is in rural, northeast Texas. It’s over 100 miles from downtown Dallas and more significant to your “thesis”, it’s 60 miles from US75 and 50 miles from I30, the two closest highways connecting to the DFW metroplex.

Paris is literally the definition of “middle of nowhere” rural Texas. Its decay or growth has absolutely no connection to DFW - now or at any point in the future. The commute is in no way comparable to what people do in other parts of the country. It’s not taking the train from Delaware to DC, Philly or even NYC (worked with an intern who did hellish train ride for 4 months).

It’s RURAL two lane country road driving for the first hour. When I worked at Legacy in north Plano, a few coworkers did *super* commutes from Glen Rose & Sherman but there were literally like 10-20 people in a 6,000 person office building. Never will be a critical mass of commuters from Paris to even become an outer bedroom suburb. There aren’t even a critical mass of daily commuters coming in from Commerce or Greenville, two closer in smaller towns that are at least on a major highway.

[NJ Brazen_3133]

Originally Posted by EDS_

1. Paris' population is down about 5/6% since 2010 and fairly stable over time. Describing that as completely emptied out is absurd.

2. Paris is 100+ miles out.

3. Small towns are under pressure worldwide.

But isnt that normal driving distance for people out there? If you doing 80mph, without any traffic, that can seem like a breeze. I have literally sat in traffic for close to 2hrs just to travel like 50 miles or less.

Plus there is the other towns in the vids I posted. Those should be closer.

Originally Posted by Dr. Jake Oil

Paris would be a little under 2 hours even to the northern metroplex. "Just outside" of DFW? I guess Waco is just outside of DFW too?

But Lamar County is pretty much much right next Hunt County which is a part of DFW. Plus the wiki claims DFW is huge at +8K sq miles. How long does it take to get from one extreme end to the other?

Then what about the other towns like Commerce showcased in the other vid? That is in Hunt County which wiki claims is part of the DFW.

[NJ Brazen_3133]

Originally Posted by TurtleCreek80

What are you even talking about? Paris is in rural, northeast Texas. It’s over 100 miles from downtown Dallas and more significant to your “thesis”, it’s 60 miles from US75 and 50 miles from I30, the two closest highways connecting to the DFW metroplex.

Paris is literally the definition of “middle of nowhere” rural Texas. Its decay or growth has absolutely no connection to DFW - now or at any point in the future. The commute is in no way comparable to what people do in other parts of the country. It’s not taking the train from Delaware to DC, Philly or even NYC (worked with an intern who did hellish train ride for 4 months).

It’s RURAL two lane country road driving for the first hour. When I worked at Legacy in north Plano, a few coworkers did *super* commutes from Glen Rose & Sherman but there were literally like 10-20 people in a 6,000 person office building. Never will be a critical mass of commuters from Paris to even become an outer bedroom suburb. There aren’t even a critical mass of daily commuters coming in from Commerce or Greenville, two closer in smaller towns that are at least on a major highway.

From the internet, Paris is 79 miles from McKinney.

NYC is 77 miles to Riverhead on Long island. There is practically continuous development between NYC and Riverhead NY.

Ok even if Paris is way to far out, which I apologize. there seems to be a lot of small towns surrounding the DFW.

[Dr. Jake Oil]

Originally Posted by NJ Brazen_3133

From the internet, Paris is 79 miles from McKinney.

NYC is 77 miles to Riverhead on Long island. There is practically continuous development between NYC and Riverhead NY.

Ok even if Paris is way to far out, which I apologize. there seems to be a lot of small towns surrounding the DFW.

Yes development along a peninsula or a long island is exactly the same as development on a flat plain in all directions.

Good call.

[TheOverdog]

NYC is 77 miles to Riverhead on Long island. There is practically continuous development between NYC and Riverhead NY.

DFW does have fairly continuous development for close to 100 miles east to west (for example, Plano to Weatherford is 79miles, McKinney almost 100), but McKinney is a suburb so not at all comparable to 'NYC' in terms of a distance comparison for a job base, hence why over 100 miles to downtown Dallas, or 80miles to Plano is an apt comparison. Also, since DFW is not as dense as NYC metro with no comparable mass transit, 80 miles by car is an insurmountable commute. So nobody would commute from McKinney to Weatherford.

[TurtleCreek80]

Originally Posted by Dr. Jake Oil

Yes development along a peninsula or a long island is exactly the same as development on a flat plain in all directions.

Good call.

Don’t forget that reading the paper and doing work emails whilst sitting on the LIRR is exactly the same as navigating county roads and two lane TX highways for an hour before even getting into interstate traffic .

[Gaylord_Focker]

I live 40 miles from LA> Too far to commute. Forget this 80 mile stuff

[Leonard123]

Originally Posted by TurtleCreek80

I’m questioning the data source & accuracy in the article….AgentStory, an LA-based real estate tech firm, is saying Frisco went from March 2022 peak of $750k to $599k in October….only prices didn’t peak here in March, they peaked in June. And what showing as currently pending in MLS doesn’t track anywhere near a $599k median price….

Today Frisco has 613 SFH’s on the market and only approx 170 (27%) of listings are at or below the $599k median sales price. Median list price is around $780k. So you’d need to be seeing the vast majority of pending & sold home action to be happening below the median list price…but that’s not happening.

176 of the 613 SFH’s are pending (28%). Median pending *list* price is $822k, so realistically that’s a sold pending price median in the upper-mid to high $700k’s. And there are only 10 condo/townhome/multi-family units pending which is not nearly enough to drag the median price down another $200k..

I don’t have city level MLS data but it doesn’t make sense that the AgentStory data would have the 3 largest cities in Collin County (Plano, Frisco, McKinney) down 20%, 21%, and 18% from a month that wasn’t even *peak* prices while the local NTREIS (MLS) data has Collin County down 12% from peak (June - October). That would mean other CoCo cities like Allen, Anna, Murphy, etc were still seeing price increases which also doesn’t track with reality.

The MLS report showing down 12% makes the most sense as CoCo was amongst the frothiest markets in Texas but I really don’t think it’s down 20%+ (yet). https://ntreis.net/resources/ntreis-statistics/

I'm not sure how they arrive at their data. I still think it all depends on neighborhood. Unless it's small, city level numbers don't mean much.

The growth is going to have to stop at some point. The infrastructure and resources don't and won't exist to support it.

[Wittgenstein's Ghost]

Originally Posted by NJ Brazen_3133

But isnt that normal driving distance for people out there? If you doing 80mph, without any traffic, that can seem like a breeze. I have literally sat in traffic for close to 2hrs just to travel like 50 miles or less.

Being 60 miles from the outermost edge of a metro area is entirely different than being 60 miles from downtown.

[NJ Brazen_3133]

Originally Posted by TheOverdog

DFW does have fairly continuous development for close to 100 miles east to west (for example, Plano to Weatherford is 79miles, McKinney almost 100), but McKinney is a suburb so not at all comparable to 'NYC' in terms of a distance comparison for a job base, hence why over 100 miles to downtown Dallas, or 80miles to Plano is an apt comparison. Also, since DFW is not as dense as NYC metro with no comparable mass transit, 80 miles by car is an insurmountable commute. So nobody would commute from McKinney to Weatherford.

I really want to visit now. I have been told DFW is extremely sprawling. Even more than LA which is often compared to NYC, and said to be super sprawling.

Originally Posted by Wittgenstein's Ghost

Being 60 miles from the outermost edge of a metro area is entirely different than being 60 miles from downtown.

How far out does the outermost edge of Metroplex extend from Downtown Dallas? I assume the higher paying white collar jobs are closer to city centers, while the lower end earners work further away.

How far is Leonard or Commerce from the edge of the Metroplex?