How much bigger will DFW population be? (Austin, Plano: employment, schools)

[TheOverdog]

LOL, Dude, why don't you just move to NYC already?!?

Why don't you move to San Angelo? That place ain't gonna grow and it has the Chili's you like.

[NoClueWho]

Originally Posted by TheOverdog

Why don't you move to San Angelo? That place ain't gonna grow and it has the Chili's you like.

Nah. Having lived in DFW for years, I personally have actually learned to appreciate something more MEDIUM sized. San Angelo is too small to fit that bill, to me. Funny Chili's joke, though...lol.

Good luck waiting on DFW to become NYC South, though. Even if it hits 20 MILLION, it's still not going to get a lot of the stuff you named, like two MLB teams, a MAJOR university, and a Broadway/theater/performing arts scene on the level of NYC's. The NYC-level Broadway pipe dream in particular is just silly. You seriously might as well just move to NYC if those are the types of things that you personally place importance on, instead of practical things that affect residents on an every day basis, like commute times and traffic.

[Wittgenstein's Ghost]

Originally Posted by Soonhun

If you think you are stupid or someone thinks you are stupid, then that is on you. I think we merely disagree at the basis of the topic.

Are you aware two people can have differing opinions or views without one being less intelligent than the other?

Sure, but you said you didn't imagine being able to even have a conversation with me about a topic simply because I was wrong about it.

[biafra4life]

I have a different take on all this.
I think the metroplex will continue to grow rapidly, but instead of this drawing all the cities closer together, I think it will result in less integration. So Collin County has room to add at least another one to two million people. Tarrant County could add another million or more. Denton and Rockwall County can add substantial populations as well. The addition of several million more people will make commutes of more than say 20 miles unrealistic. Therefore people will live, work and play within a few miles radius of their homes. Currently a lot of people commute from McKinney, Frisco, Southlake, Fort Worth etc into Dallas to work. So there is some interaction between people living in different parts of the metroplex. Add another 5 million people and that interaction will have to decrease as we all know the transportation infrastructure will probably not keep up with the demand, and mass transit isnt working at least in the suburbs.

We can all agree that Prosper, Keller and Rockwall are all part and parcel of the metroplex. Yet they are so far apart that eventually it will get to the point that people living in all 3 towns will have little if any interaction since the time cost of travelling from Prosper to Keller or Rockwall would just not be worthwhile if that means sitting in traffic for 3 hours or more. So for all intents and purposes, for the person living in Prosper, Keller might as well be Houston as that is how often the person in Prosper would even bother to go there, if they ever did. So I think 10 years from now you will have people live and travel within say their county, but no further.

[Leonard123]

Originally Posted by biafra4life

I have a different take on all this.
So Collin County has room to add at least another one to two million people. Denton and Rockwall County can add substantial populations as well.

Where? Collin County is built out. Denton County is not far behind. Rockwall County doesn't have enough total land area, let alone remaining land.

By that logic though, the inability to manage longer commutes will prevent growth in the few spots that do have land because those areas are not close to any jobs. They never will be. Full-time jobs that pay the bills are only in and only moving to the places that already have them, and there is not a square inch of space left for any net new additions anywhere near there.

I would be shocked if Collin County saw more than 100,000 people in the next fifty years. There just isn't a way for that to happen unless the number of people per household goes up. Collin County is pretty much a done deal as far as I'm concerned.

Another limiting factor that people overlook is that people are not having enough children. All the population growth is coming from immigration, and if they adopt their new cultural surroundings, they won't have enough children either.

[NP78]

Originally Posted by Leonard123

Where? Collin County is built out. Denton County is not far behind. Rockwall County doesn't have enough total land area, let alone remaining land.

By that logic though, the inability to manage longer commutes will prevent growth in the few spots that do have land because those areas are not close to any jobs. They never will be. Full-time jobs that pay the bills are only in and only moving to the places that already have them, and there is not a square inch of space left for any net new additions anywhere near there.

I would be shocked if Collin County saw more than 100,000 people in the next fifty years. There just isn't a way for that to happen unless the number of people per household goes up. Collin County is pretty much a done deal as far as I'm concerned.

Another limiting factor that people overlook is that people are not having enough children. All the population growth is coming from immigration, and if they adopt their new cultural surroundings, they won't have enough children either.

Plenty of space in all 3 counties still.

[EDS_]

Originally Posted by Leonard123

Where? Collin County is built out. Denton County is not far behind. Rockwall County doesn't have enough total land area, let alone remaining land.

By that logic though, the inability to manage longer commutes will prevent growth in the few spots that do have land because those areas are not close to any jobs. They never will be. Full-time jobs that pay the bills are only in and only moving to the places that already have them, and there is not a square inch of space left for any net new additions anywhere near there.

I would be shocked if Collin County saw more than 100,000 people in the next fifty years. There just isn't a way for that to happen unless the number of people per household goes up. Collin County is pretty much a done deal as far as I'm concerned.

Another limiting factor that people overlook is that people are not having enough children. All the population growth is coming from immigration, and if they adopt their new cultural surroundings, they won't have enough children either.

You say a lot of things that miss reality by a wide margin but the above is so ridiculous I've read and re-read looking for a hint of satire or maybe a punch-line.

Neither Collin or Denton Counties are remotely close to "built out."

You can bet your life unless aliens attack or zombies crawl out of the ground CoCo will add 100,000 in the next several years, forget 50.

National and even local live births per female and all that stuff miss CoCo's growth. It's people from SoCal, Florida and other places relocating.

FWIIW The DMN has a piece about TX migration running right now.

https://www.dallasnews.com/business/...om-california/

[Leonard123]

Originally Posted by NP78

Plenty of space in all 3 counties still.

LOL! Where specifically?

It certainly won't be Plano, Allen, McKinney, or Frisco. I don't see any space that is usable.

I find all these claims laughable. I just don't know where people are going to go. The current supply chain constraints are currently expected by many, including myself, to become permanent. Things can't get built. Businesses are not moving outward at all. I just don't see any of this happening. Statistical projections only account for growth trends which I don't think are meaningful anymore.

I guess we'll see who is right, but I am betting at least this part of the metro has already hit its peak.

[Leonard123]

Originally Posted by EDS_

You say a lot of things that miss reality by a wide margin but the above is so ridiculous I've read and re-read looking for a hint of satire or maybe a punch-line.

Neither Collin or Denton Counties are remotely close to "built out."

You can bet your life unless aliens attack or zombies crawl out of the ground CoCo will add 100,000 in the next several years, forget 50.

National and even local live births per female and all that stuff miss CoCo's growth. It's people from SoCal, Florida and other places relocating.

FWIIW The DMN has a piece about TX migration running right now.

https://www.dallasnews.com/business/...om-california/

That's talking about the past. I don't believe these patterns will continue. Too much has changed. That same news source also had a piece about declining birth rates. https://www.dallasnews.com/business/...bor-shortages/

[NP78]

Originally Posted by Leonard123

LOL! Where specifically?

It certainly won't be Plano, Allen, McKinney, or Frisco. I don't see any space that is usable.

I find all these claims laughable. I just don't know where people are going to go. The current supply chain constraints are currently expected by many, including myself, to become permanent. Things can't get built. Businesses are not moving outward at all. I just don't see any of this happening. Statistical projections only account for growth trends which I don't think are meaningful anymore.

I guess we'll see who is right, but I am betting at least this part of the metro has already hit its peak.

I mean, look at a map. The area from Celina to Anna/Melissa has tons of development already underway. Those are the obvious areas where the DFW exurban sprawl will continue unabated, but you would be surprised at the level of infrastructure development underway in places like Josephine. Beyond that type of land development there will be increasing density in places like Plano and Frisco which will offset the likely reduced household size over time.

Collin County is adding 30k per year right now. They will add 100k by 2025 easy.

Denton County has even more room.