Coronavirus in DFW - News & Discussion (epicenter, difference between)

[Wittgenstein's Ghost]

Originally Posted by potatocoins

It's not hard to imagine at all. There are some parts of the country where life continued as normal and maybe a lot of people didn't get COVID despite taking mininal/zero precautions. From their perspective, it may seem overblown and not something they have to worry about.

Except a lot in her county did get it. My grandmother's brother died from it, yet my aunt (his niece), thinks Covid is little more than a hoax. This isn't a rational response to the world around them. It is the product of ignorance, misinformation and self-serving media interests preying on low-information folks.

[jiping]

Herd immunity can be reached when enough people have been vaccinated against a disease and have developed protective antibodies against future infection.

Coronavirus vaccine has little to do with herd immunity because it does not shutdown future infection - it may protects people from getting severely ill and reduce the likelihood of hospitalization/death. Vaccinated people can still get infected and transmit to others.

https://www.washingtonpost.com/conte...-2744e4e25f2e/
Internal CDC document

Breakthrough infections may be as transmissible as unvaccinated cases
Vaccines may be less effective at preventing infection or transmission
Therefore, more breakthrough and more community spread despite
vaccination
Risk of severe disease or death reduced 10-fold or greater in vaccinated
Risk of infection reduced 3-fold in vaccinated

[Wittgenstein's Ghost]

Originally Posted by jiping

Herd immunity can be reached when enough people have been vaccinated against a disease and have developed protective antibodies against future infection.

Coronavirus vaccine has little to do with herd immunity because it does not shutdown future infection - it may protects people from getting severely ill and reduce the likelihood of hospitalization/death. Vaccinated people can still get infected and transmit to others.

https://www.washingtonpost.com/conte...-2744e4e25f2e/
Internal CDC document

You are clearly working with a poor understanding of this stuff. Enough people having a 3-fold reduced risk of acquiring Covid can certainly lead to herd immunity. Not a single epidemiologist in the world would agree with what you are saying.

Vaccines are the main way we have herd immunity against most infectious diseases, yet I'm not sure there is a single vaccine that is 100% effective. How is that possible that we have herd immunity, then?

[jiping]

Originally Posted by Wittgenstein's Ghost

You are clearly working with a poor understanding of this stuff. Enough people having a 3-fold reduced risk of acquiring Covid can certainly lead to herd immunity. Not a single epidemiologist in the world would agree with what you are saying.

Vaccines are the main way we have herd immunity against most infectious diseases, yet I'm not sure there is a single vaccine that is 100% effective. How is that possible that we have herd immunity, then?

lol. CDC docs shows herd immunity is impossible with even 80-90% vaccination coverage.

[Wittgenstein's Ghost]

Originally Posted by jiping

lol. CDC docs shows herd immunity is impossible with even 80-90% vaccination coverage.

What page?

Your basic argument is that a vaccine that isn't 100% effective can't produce herd immunity. That simply isn't true.

[jiping]

Originally Posted by Wittgenstein's Ghost

What page?

Your basic argument is that a vaccine that isn't 100% effective can't produce herd immunity. That simply isn't true.

P20

My basic argument is that an ineffective vaccine can never produce herd immunity against a highly contagious disease. It is common sense.
That 70% vaccination threshold to reach herd immunity was based on 90%+ vaccine efficacy and R0=2.5 for the alpha variant. With 66% vaccine efficacy and R0=5 for delta, herd immunity is mathematically impossible.

FYI the real herd immunity:

Polio Vaccine Effectiveness and Duration of Protection
Three doses of inactivated polio vaccine (IPV) are 99% to 100% effective against polio;
A person is considered to be fully vaccinated if he or she has received four doses of any combination of IPV and tOPV, or a primary series of at least three doses of IPV or trivalent oral poliovirus vaccine (tOPV)

[loves2read]

Originally Posted by jiping

Herd immunity can be reached when enough people have been vaccinated against a disease and have developed protective antibodies against future infection.

Coronavirus vaccine has little to do with herd immunity because it does not shutdown future infection - it may protects people from getting severely ill and reduce the likelihood of hospitalization/death. Vaccinated people can still get infected and transmit to others.

https://www.washingtonpost.com/conte...-2744e4e25f2e/
Internal CDC document

Dr John Campbell in the UK has recent video on YouTube with evidence that herd immunity is in the rear view

https://youtu.be/JhRb5hnTseU

Too many cases
Too much mutation exists to ever reach herd immunity
This CoVid is with us
Just depends on how dangerous (infectious/contagious/vax-resistant/mortality rate) it is ant given strain or wave

Thanks to the deniers…
Take a bow…

[potatocoins]

Originally Posted by Wittgenstein's Ghost

Except a lot in her county did get it. My grandmother's brother died from it, yet my aunt (his niece), thinks Covid is little more than a hoax. This isn't a rational response to the world around them. It is the product of ignorance, misinformation and self-serving media interests preying on low-information folks.

How many is 'a lot'?

Also, what does your aunt mean when she says it is a hoax? Does she think COVID doesn't exist at all, or something else?

Are you just assuming people in that county are misinformed, or do you go around asking everyone their stance on COVID and the vaccine, etc..?

[As Above So Below...]

Originally Posted by loves2read

Dr John Campbell in the UK has recent video on YouTube with evidence that herd immunity is in the rear view

https://youtu.be/JhRb5hnTseU

Too many cases
Too much mutation exists to ever reach herd immunity
This CoVid is with us
Just depends on how dangerous (infectious/contagious/vax-resistant/mortality rate) it is ant given strain or wave

Thanks to the deniers…
Take a bow…

It was always going to be this way and it would take a great deal of naivety to think otherwise.

[Wittgenstein's Ghost]

Originally Posted by jiping

P20

My basic argument is that an ineffective vaccine can never produce herd immunity against a highly contagious disease. It is common sense.
That 70% vaccination threshold to reach herd immunity was based on 90%+ vaccine efficacy and R0=2.5 for the alpha variant. With 66% vaccine efficacy and R0=5 for delta, herd immunity is mathematically impossible.

FYI the real herd immunity:

Your actual argument was much stronger than that (in the sense that you were making a stronger claim, not that the argument was good):

Originally Posted by jiping

Coronavirus vaccine has little to do with herd immunity because it does not shutdown future infection - it may protects people from getting severely ill and reduce the likelihood of hospitalization/death. Vaccinated people can still get infected and transmit to others.

Your argument was that a vaccine that doesn't shutdown a virus "has little to do with herd immunity."

But regarding page twenty, I think you might be overstating the situation for a couple reasons.

First, you are assuming no masking happens. Per page 20, if all cases are Delta, only 5% of natural immunity exists and the unvaccinated are masked, likelihood of decrease is above 50% even at 80% vaccination rate.

Second, you are obviously assuming 5% natural immunity. In the 35% natural immunity scenarios, likelihood of decrease becomes 50% or better at much lower levels.

So, in the worst possible set of assumptions, herd immunity won't be reached. But if natural immunity is better than 5%, or if Delta or Delta-like cases don't make up all of the cases in existence, the vaccinated number for herd immunity decreases.

Btw, I'm not trying to argue for a 70% figure for herd immunity. I don't know if it's 70% or 80% or 90%. My argument was simply that 53% isn't enough.