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Old 11-10-2012, 05:33 PM
 
Location: Near the Coast SWCT
83,520 posts, read 75,333,969 times
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2 weeks away and I'm worried about this Thanksgiving storm. Maybe the last 2...or 4 have ruined me.

Not liking the tropical connection and blocky situation the Euro was showing.

And now here what the GFS shows. a 990mb low with enough cold air.

I'm not looking at details right now. I'm bascially looking for a pattern and consistancy. But this last senario would bring 4-8" into CT and a foot in MA. Do I believe this? No. Is it possible? Yes.

This time GFS brings it in faster to happen on the 19th. Either way... something is brewing from the 19th - 22nd

 
Old 11-10-2012, 05:43 PM
 
Location: USA East Coast
4,429 posts, read 10,365,383 times
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on SundayThey are forecasting near 61 - 63 F in NYC...I will be intrested to see the highest temps in CT:


Last edited by wavehunter007; 11-10-2012 at 05:55 PM..
 
Old 11-10-2012, 08:01 PM
 
Location: Central, CT
856 posts, read 2,015,663 times
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Cam I always compare your early forcasts to the farmers almanac cause I've noticed a correlation. They had snow listed for the date range where the last storm fell and theres one listed for Thanksgiving week...hmmm...time will tell...
 
Old 11-11-2012, 04:37 AM
 
Location: Near the Coast SWCT
83,520 posts, read 75,333,969 times
Reputation: 16620
Quote:
Originally Posted by TobinJ View Post
Cam I always compare your early forcasts to the farmers almanac cause I've noticed a correlation. They had snow listed for the date range where the last storm fell and theres one listed for Thanksgiving week...hmmm...time will tell...
Oh wow, you peaked my interest so I had to go check... sure enough, thats interesting! I used to love them as a kid, then faded away from them since it was too "general" for me. But now I might have to get back into it because I think they use the LRC method. Which basically means they use pattern recognition. Sometimes pattern break and get disrupted but other times it continues. Earths weather pattern is just a flow round and round.

Looking at this, your right, they called the snow and now calling for this potential thanksgiving storm.
I cant wait for mid December now. lol
Northeast U.S. Long Range Weather Forecast | Farmers' Almanac

 
Old 11-11-2012, 05:34 AM
 
Location: USA East Coast
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According to Brett - the newest ECMWF...the with a mean + NAO, should feature a rather mild last two weeks to November for much of the Tri-State (NY/NJ/CT) area. This week, sunny skies today, Monday, and part of Tues...then some showers pull through by mid week. Temps look like highs in the 50's (after tuesday) and lows in the middle 30's . Next week, warmer, and a drier pattern:




The last week of November and first week of December should see no below normal cold and a mean + NAO. This is what I predicted (might) happen. While we had a long hot summer in the Atlantic states - the NAO was actually negitive (sometimes VERY neg). Now as we are set to start the heart of the cold season it looks like it will trend positive. As the old times weatherman used to say - the NAO never stays negitive for long, and it has been neg for a long time. We could now be looking at a long run of a + NAO? This could mean (?) a mild winter (D/J/F) for us in Connecticut/NYC/NJ:

Last edited by wavehunter007; 11-11-2012 at 05:51 AM..
 
Old 11-11-2012, 06:51 AM
 
Location: Live in NY, work in CT
11,298 posts, read 18,892,517 times
Reputation: 5126
Quote:
Originally Posted by Cambium View Post
Oh wow, you peaked my interest so I had to go check... sure enough, thats interesting! I used to love them as a kid, then faded away from them since it was too "general" for me. But now I might have to get back into it because I think they use the LRC method. Which basically means they use pattern recognition. Sometimes pattern break and get disrupted but other times it continues. Earths weather pattern is just a flow round and round.

Looking at this, your right, they called the snow and now calling for this potential thanksgiving storm.
I cant wait for mid December now. lol
Northeast U.S. Long Range Weather Forecast | Farmers' Almanac
Any way to see what they said for October? (I tried and couldn't find any short of buying the book)....I'm wondering if they predicted the hurricane.....
 
Old 11-11-2012, 07:57 AM
 
Location: USA East Coast
4,429 posts, read 10,365,383 times
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Quote:
Originally Posted by 7 Wishes View Post
Any way to see what they said for October? (I tried and couldn't find any short of buying the book)....I'm wondering if they predicted the hurricane.....

You do realize that the Farmer's Almanic has been out of print for 30 years. They just keep reprinting and shuffleing the forecasts...lol.

I used to be an avid reader until I found this out....
 
Old 11-11-2012, 12:24 PM
 
Location: Central, CT
856 posts, read 2,015,663 times
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That may be true for certain aspects/sections of the print edition but if it's true for the online long range forecast then the coincidence of this years forecast is astounding. I think you can go back to past month by altering the URL directly but i can only see the mobile version right now.
 
Old 11-11-2012, 06:29 PM
 
10,007 posts, read 11,164,409 times
Reputation: 6303
Quote:
Originally Posted by wavehunter007 View Post
According to Brett - the newest ECMWF...the with a mean + NAO, should feature a rather mild last two weeks to November for much of the Tri-State (NY/NJ/CT) area. This week, sunny skies today, Monday, and part of Tues...then some showers pull through by mid week. Temps look like highs in the 50's (after tuesday) and lows in the middle 30's . Next week, warmer, and a drier pattern:




The last week of November and first week of December should see no below normal cold and a mean + NAO. This is what I predicted (might) happen. While we had a long hot summer in the Atlantic states - the NAO was actually negitive (sometimes VERY neg). Now as we are set to start the heart of the cold season it looks like it will trend positive. As the old times weatherman used to say - the NAO never stays negitive for long, and it has been neg for a long time. We could now be looking at a long run of a + NAO? This could mean (?) a mild winter (D/J/F) for us in Connecticut/NYC/NJ:
Sunny, with a high near 47.
Wednesday Night Mostly clear, with a low around 33.
Thursday Mostly sunny, with a high near 48.
Thursday Night Mostly cloudy, with a low around 34.
Friday Mostly sunny, with a high near 51.
Friday Night Partly cloudy, with a low around 34.
Saturday Partly sunny, with a high near 50.


Bridgeport NWS forecast...all BELOW normal temps mid late week.
I think you also predicted we wouldn't see a flake of snow till sometime in December....aces again!

Last edited by jp03; 11-11-2012 at 07:40 PM..
 
Old 11-11-2012, 07:41 PM
 
Location: Indiana Uplands
26,411 posts, read 46,591,155 times
Reputation: 19559
Quote:
Originally Posted by Cambium View Post
Oh wow, you peaked my interest so I had to go check... sure enough, thats interesting! I used to love them as a kid, then faded away from them since it was too "general" for me. But now I might have to get back into it because I think they use the LRC method. Which basically means they use pattern recognition. Sometimes pattern break and get disrupted but other times it continues. Earths weather pattern is just a flow round and round.

Looking at this, your right, they called the snow and now calling for this potential thanksgiving storm.
I cant wait for mid December now. lol
Northeast U.S. Long Range Weather Forecast | Farmers' Almanac
I might have asked this before but what is the LRC method? I have a hunch I know what you are referring to...
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