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My money is on the Fire Frogs franchise either being contracted or purchased outright by Atlanta. They were slated to play 2020 in Atlanta's Spring Training ballpark in North Port after the city of Kissimmee chose to buy out their lease so that their park could be converted to a soccer stadium. That said I doubt the Braves are either who you want OR who's interested. The Braves have made it no secret that they want to own their entire development system and High-A was the one piece they didn't own. They tried to set up a move where they'd purchase the Lynchburg Hillcats and move them to Wilmington, NC but that fell through when Wilmington's voters rejected a new ballpark. With Jason Freier's Hardball Capital (considered one of the better ownership groups in MiLB) owning the Fireflies, I doubt they'd be interested in selling to the Braves.
I also doubt Double-A will be a reasonable jump. The Carolina Mudcats (who play in Zebulon, NC, near Raleigh) had to drop from the Southern League to the Carolina League due to travel restrictions placed on affiliates with regards to days off after travel of so many hours. The Southern League has pretty much become centered around the deep south - TN, AL, MS, and the Florida Panhandle. I think the Fireflies would have the same issues the Mudcats had, especially with the closest team being in Kodak, TN.
My money is an affiliation with Cleveland. The Twins are signed with the Fort Myers Mighty Mussels through 2022 and Fort Myers plays at the Twins spring training park. It makes sense for them to stay together as the FSL drops from High-A to Low-A (perhaps swapping in the Cedar Rapids Kernals as their High-A affiliate as the Midwest League jumps from Low-A to High-A). Cleveland, meanwhile, currently has their Low-A affiliate as the Lake County Captains in the Midwest League and their High-A affiliate as the Carolina League Lynchburg Hillcats (with that affiliation ending this year). With the Midwest League jumping up to High-A, I imagine they choose Lake County over Lynchburg which would then open up a Low-A slot for the Indians. Meanwhile, Lynchburg might end up as one of the contracted teams or end up with a different affiliate.
I remember the vote in Wilmington, which failed. I still think Wilmington, NC is a good untapped market for affiliated MiLB, they have had some minor league teams in the past in various classes and leagues, they just need a need ballpark, which is a lot easier said than done when many cities can use $30-40 million for something else!
Yeah, Columbia would be the "outlier" in the AA Southern League, like I mentioned in a previous post.
I agree with the Indians prognostication, with Lake County becoming High-A, they already have Columbus as their AAA affiliate and Akron as their AA affiliate, so needing a Low-A team, and not having one in the Florida State League, it would make sense to find a Sally League team to partner up with.
My money is on the Fire Frogs franchise either being contracted or purchased outright by Atlanta. They were slated to play 2020 in Atlanta's Spring Training ballpark in North Port after the city of Kissimmee chose to buy out their lease so that their park could be converted to a soccer stadium. That said I doubt the Braves are either who you want OR who's interested. The Braves have made it no secret that they want to own their entire development system and High-A was the one piece they didn't own. They tried to set up a move where they'd purchase the Lynchburg Hillcats and move them to Wilmington, NC but that fell through when Wilmington's voters rejected a new ballpark. With Jason Freier's Hardball Capital (considered one of the better ownership groups in MiLB) owning the Fireflies, I doubt they'd be interested in selling to the Braves.
I assume they lost a lot of money this year and with uncertainty of the next season they may want to sell. This is a bad time to sit on a high dollar entertainment business that requires attendance to make money.
I assume they lost a lot of money this year and with uncertainty of the next season they may want to sell. This is a bad time to sit on a high dollar entertainment business that requires attendance to make money.
Low-A ball isn't necessarily a "high dollar" business. Most of the employees are seasonal employees and the players and coaching staff salaries are the responsibility of the big club. Aside from rent payments on the park and salary to the full-time employees, there aren't many expenses incurred in a cancelled season and I'd imagine the Fireflies have insurance to help cover those losses (and I know they and other teams have looked to alternative revenue streams to help. Up here in Durham, the Bulls have had socially distanced movie nights and set up a Top Golf style Lollygagger Links in the park as well as other events. Beyond that, Freier/Hardball own two other teams, the Low-A Fort Wayne TinCaps of the Midwest League, and the Double-A Chattanooga Lookouts of the Southern League. If the Lookouts get contracted, Hardball would likely get compensation for that so I'm sure that would help salve losses the TinCaps and the Fireflies took. Many don't realize it but there are some fairly well-funded MiLB ownership groups that own multiple teams - offhand Hardball, the Goldklang Group (Fort Myers Miracle, Hudson Valley Renegades, Charleston RiverDogs, St. Paul Saints), and Elmore Sports Group (San Antonio Missions, Amarillo Sod Poodles, Idaho Falls Chukars, Rocky Mountain Vibes, Inland Empire 66ers, Eugene Emeralds, Lynchburg Hillcats, and the ECHL Utah Grizzlies) spring to mind and these groups are generally set up to be stable ownership groups with contingency plans/funding for these types of situations. I'm sure the margins will be tighter but I doubt Freier would look to sell the team at this point.
So The dominoes are starting to fall in the MiLB reshuffle for next season and beyond, with the Somerset Patriots (NJ) moving from the independent Atlantic League to the Eastern League and becoming the new AA affiliate of the Yankees.
The Trenton Thunder (Yanks old AA team) have an invite, along with the Staten Island Yankees to join the independent Atlantic League. The Hudson Valley Renegades will be upgraded to the High-A team of the Yankees and play in a new Mid-Atlantic High-A league. The Yanks old High-A team, the Tampa Tarpons will become their Low-A team with the Florida State League going from High-A to Low-A.
I suspect the Binghamton Rumble Ponies, the Mets current AA team in the Eastern League might be moving to Coney Island where the Cyclones play.
The Charleston Riverdogs just lost their affiliation with the Yankees, but should be safe from contraction.
Here's the tentative plan MLB has for MiLB, now that they are taking it over:
LOW-A
California League (8 teams)
Florida State League (10 teams-reduced from 12 teams)
South Atlantic League (12 teams-reduced from 14 teams)
HIGH-A
Midwest League (reduced from 14 teams, probably to 10 teams?)
Northwest League (converted from short season, maybe only 6 teams?)
Carolina League (reduced from 10 teams, maybe down to 8 teams?)
New Mid-Atlantic League (maybe only 6 teams?)
Where will the Fireflies end up? I think they will either stay in the Sally League at Low-A or move up to the Carolina League and High-A. While jumping all the way to AA and the Southern League would be nice, I just don't see that happening, mainly due to geography and Columbia being on the eastern edge of that league, but you never know*!
Stay tuned, there will probably be more announcements over the next month or so.
*I do think with Columbia's metro size and beautiful new ballpark, they could have a AA team, if only the Southern League was a little further east. And it does seem like the Southern League might lose three teams, Jackson and Chattanooga to contraction and Jacksonville moving up to AAA and the Texas league will gain two AA teams in this reshuffling. Could Columbia replace Jacksonville in the Southern League, hmmmmm........?
It will be interesting how everything ends up. I have visited many minor league parks and there are some DOGS out there. Segra park is a very very nice facility, especially on the suite level and clubhouse. It is clearly built to AA standards and by far the best facility in the current league. An example of a new park built to AA standards for the southern is Toyota Field in Madison, AL (Huntsville). It is nearly an exact replica of Segra. It would be nice if the MLB used this as an opportunity to align facilities with the level of play since right now it is all over the place (cough cough Asheville).
Montgomery has a nice facility for the Biscuits. I haven't been there in a while, but it was as nice as Segra. I look forward to a season of baseball. It is a low cost activity that is familly friendly around here.
If the Lookouts get contracted, Hardball would likely get compensation for that so I'm sure that would help salve losses the TinCaps and the Fireflies took.
It looks like the Lookouts might be saved from contraction (according to the latest in their daily paper) with Jacksonville moving up to AAA, and only one other team in the Southern League needing to disappear and that will be Jackson.
I know they have been trying to get a new stadium built in Chattanooga for awhile now. Having seen a game there, their ballpark is in a great location, northern downtown along the riverfront, sort of squeezed in there, it was just built at the wrong time (late 90s) when teams were throwing stadiums up left and right in order to keep their team from relocating.
The Lookouts stadium opened in 2000 and was built for $10.2 million at the time, which is about $15 million in today's dollars and feels sort of temporarily permanent, if you know what I mean. Having lived in Durham for over 3 and a half years and gone to dozens of Bulls games over that time, they definitely have been able to transform DBAP (opened in 1995) as best they can, and I give them a ton of credit, especially since they don't have that iconic open air concourse going from first base over to third base, that is pretty much a given in new ballparks nowadays, majors and minors.
It doesn't mean the Lookouts eventually won't be sold or relocated in the future, if another city in the South comes along and is willing to build them a new ballpark, but I think Chattanooga is good market for minor league baseball.
It will be interesting how everything ends up. I have visited many minor league parks and there are some DOGS out there. Segra park is a very very nice facility, especially on the suite level and clubhouse. It is clearly built to AA standards and by far the best facility in the current league. An example of a new park built to AA standards for the southern is Toyota Field in Madison, AL (Huntsville). It is nearly an exact replica of Segra. It would be nice if the MLB used this as an opportunity to align facilities with the level of play since right now it is all over the place (cough cough Asheville).
I always kind of like McCormick. It could probably use some work on the concourse now but that site is pretty historic and I always love the setting of being nestled against the hills and mountains there.
Quote:
Originally Posted by cjseliga
It looks like the Lookouts might be saved from contraction (according to the latest in their daily paper) with Jacksonville moving up to AAA, and only one other team in the Southern League needing to disappear and that will be Jackson.
I know they have been trying to get a new stadium built in Chattanooga for awhile now. Having seen a game there, their ballpark is in a great location, northern downtown along the riverfront, sort of squeezed in there, it was just built at the wrong time (late 90s) when teams were throwing stadiums up left and right in order to keep their team from relocating.
The Lookouts stadium opened in 2000 and was built for $10.2 million at the time, which is about $15 million in today's dollars and feels sort of temporarily permanent, if you know what I mean. Having lived in Durham for over 3 and a half years and gone to dozens of Bulls games over that time, they definitely have been able to transform DBAP (opened in 1995) as best they can, and I give them a ton of credit, especially since they don't have that iconic open air concourse going from first base over to third base, that is pretty much a given in new ballparks nowadays, majors and minors.
It doesn't mean the Lookouts eventually won't be sold or relocated in the future, if another city in the South comes along and is willing to build them a new ballpark, but I think Chattanooga is good market for minor league baseball.
Agreed that I think Jackson's in more danger than Chattanooga is (prior to this I suspected Jackson would be relo'd to New Orleans to take over the Shrine on Airline after the Baby Cakes moved to Wichita) and you're correct in that you'd only need a one-team contraction in the SL to return to an even number of teams if Jacksonville moved up to Triple-A. Offhand I can't think of any other SL markets in kind of a weak spot now that Mobile has moved to the new park in Huntsville. I think the Smokies are looking to move into a new park in Knoxville proper once their lease on Smokies Stadium is up in a couple years.
At any rate I think it's all academic. While Segra may be a park that's Double-A worthy, I think the Southern League geography just doesn't favor a team in the Carolinas any more.
At any rate I think it's all academic. While Segra may be a park that's Double-A worthy, I think the Southern League geography just doesn't favor a team in the Carolinas any more.
Yeah, for AA to work in Columbia, you would need a "partner" like Greenville, Augusta or Gwinnett (dropping down from AAA) so the Southern League's footprint moves to the east and gives teams another reason to drive all the way to the Capital City.
With the Southern League dropping to a "tight" 8 teams, many with newer parks and the Smokies possibly getting a new ballpark in downtown Knoxville, it seems like it is moving in the right direction being in Eastern TN, all throughout AL, Southern MS and the panhandle of FL. Could a team like Chattanooga (if they don't get a new ballpark) relocate to New Orleans (its suburbs) in the future, possibly.
I started thinking about teams that might be looking for a High-A affiliate in the Carolina League (if Columbia does leave the Sally League) and I can see the Marlins looking for a partner, since Clinton in the Midwest League will be contracted and the Carolina League is much closer to their other 3 teams, their lineup will be:
AAA Jacksonville
AA Pensacola
High-A ????????
Low-A Jupiter
The Atlanta Braves will be going back to the Carolina League.
I don't see the Tampa Bay Rays going to the Carolina League, unless they don't want to be partnered with the Bowling Green Hot Rods anymore, which would move to High-A in the Midwest League. The Rays lineup would be:
AAA Durham
AA Montgomery
High-A Bowling Green or a team in the Carolina League?
Low-A Charlotte (FL)
The Carolina League might make a little more sense for the Rays, although they have been with Bowling Green since 2009, but don't own them.
Yeah, for AA to work in Columbia, you would need a "partner" like Greenville, Augusta or Gwinnett (dropping down from AAA) so the Southern League's footprint moves to the east and gives teams another reason to drive all the way to the Capital City.
With the Southern League dropping to a "tight" 8 teams, many with newer parks and the Smokies possibly getting a new ballpark in downtown Knoxville, it seems like it is moving in the right direction being in Eastern TN, all throughout AL, Southern MS and the panhandle of FL. Could a team like Chattanooga (if they don't get a new ballpark) relocate to New Orleans (its suburbs) in the future, possibly.
I started thinking about teams that might be looking for a High-A affiliate in the Carolina League (if Columbia does leave the Sally League) and I can see the Marlins looking for a partner, since Clinton in the Midwest League will be contracted and the Carolina League is much closer to their other 3 teams, their lineup will be:
AAA Jacksonville
AA Pensacola
High-A ????????
Low-A Jupiter
The Atlanta Braves will be going back to the Carolina League.
I don't see the Tampa Bay Rays going to the Carolina League, unless they don't want to be partnered with the Bowling Green Hot Rods anymore, which would move to High-A in the Midwest League. The Rays lineup would be:
AAA Durham
AA Montgomery
High-A Bowling Green or a team in the Carolina League?
Low-A Charlotte (FL)
The Carolina League might make a little more sense for the Rays, although they have been with Bowling Green since 2009, but don't own them.
As great as the Rays farm system is (the Bulls make the IL playoffs almost every season) I haven't heard anything about them wanting to cut ties with Bowling Green and thus far I think that partnership has worked out. I'd suspect they'll stick with Bowling Green as they move to High-A and the Charlotte Stone Crabs as they move to Low-A. I hadn't given the Marlins much thought but you are correct that they'll be needing a new High-A affiliate. They definitely haven't been averse to the Carolinas as Greensboro used to be their Low-A affiliate and they were affiliated with the Mudcats when they were a Double-A franchise. That could work if the Fireflies move up to High-A. Out of curiosity how do you see the Carolina League/South Atlantic League/Mid-Atlantic League shake-up working out? Offhand (and this is just off the top of my head and throwing stuff at the wall) I think you'll see as follows (based on the league sizes that have been publicized)
Mid-Atlantic League
Delmarva (from SAL)
Frederick (from CL)
Fredericksburg (from CL)
Jersey Shore (from SAL)
Salem (from CL)
Wilmington (from CL)
The question marks here, I think, will be what happens with Brooklyn (do they move up to Double-A or High A?) and whether the plug is pulled on Hagerstown, Lynchburg, and West Virginia or not. I feel like the Power's park is pretty well liked, but they did just lose a pretty local affiliation when the Pirates dropped them for the Grasshoppers. I think I've also seen mention of the Power as being on the chopping block, that said though Brooklyn and West Virginia would make an 8-team league.
Carolina League
Carolina
Fayetteville
Myrtle Beach
Winston-Salem
The questions marks here are what happens with Down East (as much as I love Grainger it's an old park. They're helped by being owned by the Rangers, but that also potentially makes them more portable) and what teams, if any, from the South Atlantic League move up. Also whether or not Salem and/or Lynchburg (see above) move to the MAL or not in a bid to make the Carolina League *really* a Carolina League. If any SAL teams come up I imagine Greensboro would not be one - despite their great park, they're too close to Winston-Salem. I think some mix of Charleston, Columbia, Greenville, Hickory (in a new downtown park), or Kannapolis would be in play there based on facilities alone.
South Atlantic League
Asheville
Augusta
Charleston
Columbia
Greensboro
Greenville
Hickory
Kannapolis
Lexington
Rome
That's 10. Again the question marks are West Virginia and Hagerstown - they'd be more of a geographic fit in the MAL. Lexington's also never quite fit into the SAL to me (especially after Bowling Green and Lake County went to the Midwest League) and if West Virginia goes dark I could imagine them going to the Midwest League but that would create an odd number of teams there.
Out of curiosity how do you see the Carolina League/South Atlantic League/Mid-Atlantic League shake-up working out?
So many possibilities.
Here was my guesstimate for the entire High-A class:
Possible New High-A Setup
Carolina League - 8 teams (down from 10 teams)
Midwest League - 10 teams (down from 16 teams)
New Mid-Atlantic League - 6 teams
Northwest League - 6 teams (down from 8 teams)
Another Possible New High-A Setup
Carolina League - 6 teams (down from 10 teams)
Midwest League - 12 teams (down from 16 teams)
New Mid-Atlantic League - 6 teams
Northwest League - 6 teams (down from 8 teams)
From what I have read from local/national/regional publications, I think the new Mid-Atlantic League will be 6 teams, with the 1st three below being locks, the last three, I don't know:
Hudson Valley (Yankees) Binghamton/Brooklyn (Mets) - I'm leaning Brooklyn AA right now, and Binghamton High-A Jersey Shore (Phillies) Wilmington (Red Sox) Aberdeen (Baltimore) Fredericksburg (Nationals)
I've been hearing Aberdeen (Ripken owns them) doing a "Hudson Valley" and becoming High-A. I also heard both Frederick and Bowie are on the outs or at least one, who knows maybe B-more takes Richmond and makes them their new AA team? I think Delmarva stays at Low-A in the Sally League, although if they did stay, they would become the northern most team in the league, if Jersey Shore moves to High-A.
If this new league is indeed only 6 teams, I would think the Yankees, Mets, Phillies, Red Sox, Baltimore and Nationals, would all have a team in it no? That would make the most sense geographic-wise.
I know the Lowell Spinners (NYPenn League) are pushing hard to stay affiliated with the Red Sox and the only way that happens is if they join the new Mid-Atlantic league and become the Red Sox High-A team, since Portland will stay as their AA team.
As for the Carolina League, I feel, like yourself, Winston-Salem, Carolina, Fayetteville, Myrtle Beach are locks and Lynchburg is most likely out, Salem maybe move them to the Sally. Down East, even though the Rangers own them (and they also own Hickory in the Sally), they still have 9 years left on their lease and Grainger is ancient (built in 1949) and Kinston is one of the smallest markets in all of MiLB. The Rangers could break the lease or sell the team, since it might be cheaper than keeping the team there if you know what I mean.
As for the Sally, lets do some math and what we know about the other Low-A leagues. Previously, the Midwest League (16 teams) and the Sally (14 teams) were the only two Low-A leagues, now there will be 3 leagues that are in that class:
California League 8 teams
Florida State League 10 teams
South Atlantic League 12 teams
So from this, we know the Sally should be 12 teams total, they have 14 now, so at least 2 must go or more if they take teams from the Carolina League. I would definitely eliminate Hagerstown, they have been trying for a new downtown ballpark for 10 years now, time to let them go. Then we already discussed Jersey Shore moving up to High-A, so there's 2 right there.
I still like the idea of moving Delmarva to another league and eliminating the one outlier team in the league, assuming Hagerstown gets contracted and Jersey Shore moves up to High-A.
There was just a tweet today by the Bradenton Herald, where Pirates president Travis Williams said Bradenton and Greensboro will not be affected by minor league downsizing next year. If that's the case, we assume Bradenton is Low-A in the FSL and Greensboro is High-A in the Carolina League, talk about a rivalry with the Dash! Or will the Pirates choose a new High-A team, but Greensboro will stay Low-A and just get a new parent? I can read that tweet both ways.
I think between the 2 of us, we would be unstoppable doing minor league baseball pub trivia!
Last edited by cjseliga; 11-13-2020 at 05:37 PM..
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And it does seem like the Southern League might lose three teams, Jackson and Chattanooga to contraction and Jacksonville moving up to AAA and the Texas league will gain two AA teams in this reshuffling. Could Columbia replace Jacksonville in the Southern League, hmmmmm........? 
