Western States Megadrought intensifies - predictions for bad Fire Season and severe water shortages for Colorado (leases, floor)

[arleigh]

To conserve water here in southern California, many farms are using green houses to reduce losses.
Food prices are going up due to fuel costs and alterations necessary to conserve water.
Problem is, so many are banking on the hope that some day in the future the climate will accommodate the need rather than developing better farming practices ahead of time.
The competition for food has birds being killed creating more dependency on Monsanto pesticides, which may be effective but poisoning the plants and killing bees as well.
During a drought, bark beetles multiply because birds had been killed off that normally eat them.
I've seen thousands of acres. destroyed for this neglect and misdirection of sources.
People don't tend to think very far into the future.

[Colorado Rambler]

^^^

This just in from the Associated Press as reported by Colorado Public Radio:

Colorado River: Six western states agree to cuts proposal. California is lone holdout. Six western states that rely on water from the Colorado River have agreed on a model to dramatically cut water use in the basin, months after the federal government called for action and an initial deadline passed.

California — with the largest allocation of water from the river — is the lone holdout. Officials said the state would release its own plan.

~snip~

States missed a mid-August deadline to heed the U.S. Bureau of Reclamation's call to propose ways to conserve 2 million to 4 million acre feet of water. They regrouped to reach consensus by the end of January to fold into a larger proposal Reclamation has in the works.

Arizona, Nevada, New Mexico, Colorado, Utah and Wyoming sent a letter Monday to Reclamation, which operates the major dams in the river system, to outline an alternative that builds on existing guidelines, deepens water cuts and factors in water that's lost through evaporation and transportation.

~snip~

California released a proposal last October to cut 400,000 acre feet. An acre foot is enough water to supply two to three U.S. households for a year.

JB Hamby, chair of the Colorado River Board of California, said California will submit a model for water reductions in the basin that is practical, based on voluntary action, and aligns with law governing the river and the hierarchy of water rights.

Hmmmm... VOLUNTARY action? You bet. That's worked so well for everyone in the past. NOT! And the "hierarchy of water rights"? I'm sure that its merely coincidence that California has some of the oldest and most secure water rights in the entire 7 state Colorado River Basin. Just as I'm sure that my perception that California does not work well or play with others is merely my natural antipathy as a native Coloradan toward the so-called "Golden State." However, if California doesn't get its act together, the Feds could step in or the Golden State may turn a nice dusty color of brown.

The plot thickens...

[Mike from back east]

Here is an article showing the water math was never correct when they set up allocations.

There never has been enough water to cover future total allocations and they knew this for decades and did little to solve the problem. There is also a map of the upper and lower basin that generates and relies on this water.

Excerpt: "In the 1920s, the Colorado River Compact divvied up the river’s estimated flow, allocating 7.5M acre-feet of water to the Upper Basin and another 7.5M to the Lower Basin. [An acre-foot is enough water to flood one acre of land to the depth of one foot, or approximately 325,000 gallons.] The Boulder Canyon Project Act of 1928, as later interpreted by the U.S. Supreme Court, divided up the Lower Basin’s share, giving California 4.4M acre-feet, Arizona 2.8M, and Nevada 0.3M. Then, in the 1940s, a treaty between the U.S. and Mexico granted the Republic of Mexico 1.5M acre-feet of Colorado River water. All together, these allocations add up to 16.5 million acre-feet. ... But in the latter part of the twentieth century, University of Arizona tree-ring scientists determined that the actual flow in the Colorado River at Lees Ferry over the past 500 years is only roughly 14M acre-feet. Whoops. And things get worse. ... The two enormous reservoirs on the Colorado River—lakes Mead and Powell—lose 1.6M acre-feet per year to evaporation. So, the available 14M acre-feet are really only 12.4M...."

[Mike from back east]

Bloomberg is reporting that more expensive burgers are coming our way due to the drought.

Excerpt: "Steaks and hamburgers will likely be more expensive in the next few years with US cattle shrinking to its lowest herd since 2014. ... There were almost 89.3 million cattle as of Jan. 1, down 3% from a year ago, ... Years-long drought in the US Plains has withered pastures and squeezed supplies of feeds including hay and corn. The result: ranchers have liquidated some animals to cut costs, depressing breeding. In Texas, a key cattle state, the USDA said in a separate report that pasture and range conditions “are mostly poor due to the lack of moisture and cold temperatures.” Meanwhile, beef cows — developed to raise calves — fell to the lowest number since 1962. ... “We’re still in the contraction phase,” said Don Roose, founder of US Commodities, a grain and livestock investment and management firm. “It takes a long time to build a herd back up again.”

[Colorado Rambler]

Originally Posted by Mike from back east

Bloomberg is reporting that more expensive burgers are coming our way due to the drought.

Excerpt: "Steaks and hamburgers will likely be more expensive in the next few years with US cattle shrinking to its lowest herd since 2014. ... There were almost 89.3 million cattle as of Jan. 1, down 3% from a year ago, ... Years-long drought in the US Plains has withered pastures and squeezed supplies of feeds including hay and corn. The result: ranchers have liquidated some animals to cut costs, depressing breeding. In Texas, a key cattle state, the USDA said in a separate report that pasture and range conditions “are mostly poor due to the lack of moisture and cold temperatures.” Meanwhile, beef cows — developed to raise calves — fell to the lowest number since 1962. ... “We’re still in the contraction phase,” said Don Roose, founder of US Commodities, a grain and livestock investment and management firm. “It takes a long time to build a herd back up again.”

The Western US seems to be experiencing a trifecta of sorrows - there is the infamous drought of course, which seems to be doing a very thorough job of eventually vanishing the Colorado River. Then there's the heavily over-used Ogallala Aquifer which is being quickly drained in southeastern Colorado, Kansas, and points east.Once the Ogallala is drained, that's all she wrote folks, and ranchers will be forced to sell their herds for pennies on the dollar. There is no sadder sight than a rancher without his cattle - something that I'm beginning to see more and more of here in the Four Corners.

Finally, there is Utah's rapidly vanishing Great Salt Lake (will they have to rename it the Tiny Salt Lake, I wonder?) I don't know how much the state of the Great Salt Lake impacts local ranchers, but Salt Lake with its population of brine shrimp and other salt loving creatures has long been a favorite stop over for migrating birds of every kind. If Salt Lake goes, it will be an environmental disaster of truly huge proportions. Beef is going to become a luxury item even if its merely hamburger.

Factor in the ongoing loss of arable soils and the water which keeps them arable all over our planet and the picture is grim indeed.

[Vision67]

Sierra Nevada snowpack hits biggest level in nearly 30 years

Most snow since 1995; hopes increase for an end to California drought, but flood concerns remain

https://www.eastbaytimes.com/2023/01...arly-30-years/

"The statewide Sierra Nevada snowpack — the source of nearly one-third of California’s water supply — is at its highest level since 1995, boosting hopes that an end to the drought is near, but also raising concerns that a few warm spring storms could melt it too early and trigger major flooding.

Not since Toy Story packed movie theaters, Steve Young led the 49ers to their fifth Super Bowl win, and gasoline cost $1.28 a gallon has there been so much snow in California’s most famous mountain range at the end of January."

"The snowpack was 208% of its historical average for this time of year on Tuesday, a day ahead of the high-profile Feb. 1 snow survey that state officials planned to take near Highway 50 by Sierra-at-Tahoe ski resort with TV cameras in tow. The last time there was as much snow, 28 years ago, on Feb. 1, 1995, it was 207% of normal.

The huge bounty is the third largest statewide since 1950, when consistent statewide records began, according to a Bay Area News Group analysis of historical data. Only 1952 (267% of average) and 1969 (230%) had larger amounts on Feb. 1."

With that much Sierra snow, California could send more water to Southern California and relieve some of the draw from the Colorado River.

Will they do it?

[waltcolorado]

Lots of snow in one year leads to the short term thinking that has drained the lakes. The planet would need to cool for the Colorado river issue to go away and if we get very lucky, we will just slightly slow down what's happening.

When we heard the talk by Andy Mueller last summer (General Manager of the Colorado River Water Conservation District), he mentioned the efforts Aurora Colorado had been doing for water conservation. He noted the main reason is so the city could continue to grow, it wasnt about trying to use less water. Growth is prosperity and the party. Anyone responsible for the prosperity of their local area are not going to give up water rights easily because things are not so rosy when you cant grow.

FYI, this video was posted in the Florida forum but its interesting also for the Colorado river
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=l_Oe6YK0DgE&t=6s

[Mike from back east]

The Lower Basin states have reached a deal to conserve water. The WaPo reports this:
"The Biden administration has committed to compensating the states for three quarters of the water savings — or 2.3 million acre-feet — which would amount to at least $1 to $1.2 billion in federal funds, the people familiar with the talks said. The money from the Inflation Reduction Act would pay farmers and others who voluntarily forego their supplies."


The NY Times reports on the same deal, but in their usual fashion includes a cool graphic to show just where 1.9 trillion gallons of water are used annually. I can't put their graphic in here but these are the stats:
- 12% Residential use
- 04% Commercial and Industrial
- 04% ThermoElectric Generation (steam-powered electricity)
- 11% Cotton
- 03% Wheat
- 02% Corn, grain
- 01% Barley
- 07% Other crops
- 55% Livestock Feed (alfalfa, hay, grasses, corn silage)

Add it up and 79% of the water used in the Colorado River Basin goes to Agriculture. The water footprint to grow a pound of beef is now obvious.

Direct excerpt from the NY Times: "Thirty-seven percent of the water used in the Colorado River basin goes toward growing alfalfa and hay used largely to feed dairy cattle. That’s triple the water that residents in the region use to water lawns, take showers and wash clothes. Alfalfa is a thirsty crop, in part because of its lengthy growing season that allows for multiple harvests per year. It’s an export, too. Researchers estimated in the 2020 study that 10 to 12% of the irrigated cattle-feed crops grown in the United States are exported, and about 10% of beef is exported."

One of my gripes in AZ is that a lot of water is used to grow Alfalfa which is shipped to Saudi Arabia to feed their dairy cows. The state of AZ has stopped Saudi plans to expand that acreage. A lot of the cotton grown in the Basin is exported to India where some of the same British firms that bought cotton from our slave plantations are still making bank on cotton grown here; only we don't use slave labor any more, we use the next 'best' thing, underpaid immigrants from Mexico. Not much has really changed in 250 years; we're still a de facto colony of foreign nations, people of color still do the hard lifting, only it's foreign companies that colonize us, not the King of England -- a distinction more trivial than material. Meanwhile, textile plants across the American southeast sit silent and crumbling, their machinery stripped out in the 1980s and shipped to Asia.

[Miss Hepburn]

I've never seen so much rain in a Spring here, 37 yrs.
Yeah, heard about meat prices, Mike...well, also gas going up.

[Colorado Rambler]

^^^

Yep, even the drought stricken 4 Corners area where I live has gone jungle green, thanks to all the rain. I've never seen as wet a spring as we have had this year. This reprieve has been wonderful and the farmers here have replaced their alfalfa crop with oats instead. Not sure why the switch? At least the oats aren't going to Saudis.