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I'm not familiar so I'm curious - do you guys think Indianapolis will continue to grow that fast? I see its metro area has slowed from 23% growth in 2010 to less than half that by 2020 (likely around 10%).
Metro Columbus has fallen off as well, looks like its growth has been steadily declining over the past 5 years.
Growth has been slowing almost everywhere. Even in the Sunbelt growth darlings.
I'm not familiar so I'm curious - do you guys think Indianapolis will continue to grow that fast? I see its metro area has slowed from 23% growth in 2010 to less than half that by 2020 (likely around 10%).
Metro Columbus has fallen off as well, looks like its growth has been steadily declining over the past 5 years.
Something I think everyone needs to remember:
The only organism that grows relentlessly at the same pace is the cancer cell. Every other living thing grows up to a point where it is fully developed.
Cities are more like living organisms than like cancer cells, or at least I hope they are. As long as the Earth's population continues to increase, cities will continue to grow, but most of them will have their growth rates plateau at some point.
There are some economists now who argue that we need to think in terms of a steady-state, sustainable economy rather than one that grows constantly.
I'm not familiar so I'm curious - do you guys think Indianapolis will continue to grow that fast? I see its metro area has slowed from 23% growth in 2010 to less than half that by 2020 (likely around 10%).
Metro Columbus has fallen off as well, looks like its growth has been steadily declining over the past 5 years.
I still get that sense that while it may not be the very fastest growing metro area per se, that Indy is still growing at a good rate. Don't forget that the Indy area is gaining residents, due to some that are sick of the taxes and mismanaged state and local governments in Illinois. On a side note though it isn't about the Midwest, it seems like some of the ex-Chicagoians are moving to Nashville to some extent as well. And for whatever reason, I remember noticing Parson's Chicken and Fish(based in the Chicago area) opened a Nashville location! Same with Headquarters Beercade(it's basically like Barcade, a hybrid bar/arcade) opening a Nashville location as well.
Columbus seems to be growing at a good rate, too. And IIRC, I think had the fastest amount of growth of bigger Ohio cities in recent years.
To be honest with you, I would combine Tiers II and III.
Chicago is in a tier of its own (Tier I), and is the undisputed largest city and hub/anchor of the Midwest, despite its population/stature decline. It's still on a scale that is unmatched by any other Midwestern city.
But to me, Minneapolis, Detroit, Indy, Milwaukee, St. Louis, Kansas City, and Milwaukee are all even in terms of tier/reputation/scale/etc. These are all quintessential "medium" Midwestern cities.
Detroit at one time felt like it was in a different Tier than the other mid-sized cities. Not in the same Tier as Chicago, but definitely a Tier II.
I am from suburban Detroit and grew up in the 80s, and when I was younger, even based on perception, Detroit seemed like it was a "large" city. Now, it feels like a "medium" or "mid-sized" city to me. I think that all of these cities, have a good chance of rebounding. Hopefully the impacts of COVID are not too damaging in the long-term.
*on an aside, I remember only a decade ago (particularly around 2010), Detroit had the worse, most violent reputation of any city in the US. Now, while Detroit still has high crime (one of the highest rates), its reputation is not nearly as bad. It is not mentioned much in the news. Chicago has overtaken it, in terms of violent crimes reputation (Chicago has higher Total numbers, although lower "rates"). Even still, it is a small victory, because I rarely hear Detroit mentioned in the vein of the most violent city in America, whereas only 10 years ago, it was the first city mentioned related to this.
But to me, Minneapolis, Detroit, Indy, Milwaukee, St. Louis, Kansas City, and Milwaukee are all even in terms of tier/reputation/scale/etc. These are all quintessential "medium" Midwestern cities.
No, they are not even, especially when certain benchmarks, including GDP, corporate headquarters, patents, etc., are considered. Actually there are major gaps when comparing Minneapolis and/or Detroit to the likes of Indy, Milwaukee, St. Louis, Kansas City, and Milwaukee. In some cases it's not even close.
No, they are not even, especially when certain benchmarks, including GDP, corporate headquarters, patents, etc., are considered. Actually there are major gaps when comparing Minneapolis and/or Detroit to the likes of Indy, Milwaukee, St. Louis, Kansas City, and Milwaukee. In some cases it's not even close.
You could be right. I haven't taken a deep dive.
It looks like Minneapolis GDP is $242 billion and for St. Louis is about $152 billion.
But Chicago's GDP is over $600 billion, so it kind of depends on where you divide the lines. To me, the gap between Minneapolis/Detroit and Chicago is bigger than the gap between Minneapolis/Detroit and the other cities listed. Although, depending on what all is included (F500s, headquarters, patents, GDP, etc.) there could be a good case for Minneapolis/Detroit being in a separate Tier. From a high-level perspective (without digging into details), it seems like Tiers II and III could be merged, but it all depends on how the lines are being cut based on all the metrics.
But Chicago's GDP is over $600 billion, so it kind of depends on where you divide the lines. To me, the gap between Minneapolis/Detroit and Chicago is bigger than the gap between Minneapolis/Detroit and the other cities listed. Although, depending on what all is included (F500s, headquarters, patents, GDP, etc.) there could be a good case for Minneapolis/Detroit being in a separate Tier. From a high-level perspective (without digging into details), it seems like Tiers II and III could be merged, but it all depends on how the lines are being cut based on all the metrics.
The GDP gap between Minneapolis and St. Louis isn't as great as the gap between Chicago and Minneapolis, but it's growing and Minneapolis is pulling away from the other metros you mentioned. Between 2010 and 2019, GDP growth for Minneapolis $83.606 B (43.90%). St. Louis saw an increase of $35.166 B (25.42%). Chicago's grew by $192.645 B (37.51%).
Does anyone know where I can find the latest GDP numbers for all these metros? I'm interested to see how these cities are fairing post pandemic but I can only seem to find concrete data on the top 50 MSAs.
I think the Midwest metro economies would rank something like this but I can't confirm.
Chicago
MSP
Detroit(without Ann Arbor)
St. Louis
Indy
Kansas City
Columbus
Cincinatti
Cleveland
Milwaukee
Omaha
Grand Rapids
Des Moines
Dayton?
Madison?
Does anyone know where I can find the latest GDP numbers for all these metros? I'm interested to see how these cities are fairing post pandemic but I can only seem to find concrete data on the top 50 MSAs.
I think the Midwest metro economies would rank something like this but I can't confirm.
Chicago
MSP
Detroit(without Ann Arbor)
St. Louis
Indy
Kansas City
Columbus
Cincinatti
Cleveland
Milwaukee
Omaha
Grand Rapids
Des Moines
Dayton?
Madison?
Use this link and scroll down to 1)Interactive Data; then 2)interactive tables, GDP by county and MSA; then 3)GDP by county and metropolitan area; then 4)GDP in current dollars:
III.
St. Louis, Indianapolis, Cincinnati, Columbus, Cleveland, Kansas City, Milwaukee
IV.
St. Paul, Omaha, Grand Rapids
V.
Des Moines, Madison, Dayton
VI.
Akron, Toledo, Wichita, KC Kansas
Top 20 Midwest cities, broken into six tiers, inspired by the Southern City Tiers thread...
The most interesting question I have is regarding the Ohio cities' reshuffle. Has the hierarchy officially flipped to Cleveland being last of The 3 C's? What do people familiar with Ohio, what's the general feeling right now? How long until Columbus stakes it's claim as the alpha city?
With Chicago's national profile declining--it seems most agree it will eventually lose prominence to San Francisco and Washington--; how long until, or how much of a drop, does Chicago have to decline before Detroit can, if ever, become competitive for regional supremacy with It? Because no disrespect to Minneapolis, but I doubt that it could ever reach that level...
How thin has the line become between St. Louis and Kansas City? And is it safe to say these are the Top 20 cities in the Midwest? This is all in fun to me, so let's just continue having fun with these and allow this starter dialogue to open up other avenues of discussion!
Since I started this thread over 5 years ago, I don't think much has changed. It has been a half-decade though, so I do think there has been some movement. Here is what I'd argue:
•MSP has possibly overtaken Detroit as Midwest #2. It was an argument back then, so it's still an argument today, but I think it's credibility has gotten stronger. It's the second largest economy in the Midwest, it wasn't 5 years ago...
•I think there's a real argument for Cincinatti as the leader of Tier III. It has outpaced St Louis in population and economic growth, maybe the two most significant metrics. It's quality of life and health as a city are generally considered greater than StL. And I don't even think it's that debatable anymore---->Cincy is Ohio's #1 city in the present, 2020s era. It's not a huge gap, but there is a gap nonetheless, it's started to separate itself from the other two;
I also think Cleveland has become Ohio's clear #3 city, any argument against this is coming from a legacy evaluation rather than where the 3 C's are at presently. I'd have it right in front of Milwaukee at the bottom of the tier, right behind KC, even though I enjoyed Cleveland much more as a city than I did Kansas City;
•St Paul and Minneapolis are essentially the same city, I don't know why I separated them. Tier IV is still Grand Rapids and Omaha to me, in that order...
•Tier V and Tier VI in my original post are a combined Tier V now...
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