Would you buy in "western" West Town? (Chicago: condo, crime)

[Avengerfire]

Originally Posted by Los Guys

There are plenty of $400k+ condos west of Western all the way from Armitage to Belmont. As Lookout Kid mentions, there are plenty of SFH's that are a steal as well. Purchase prices are more competitive for larger spaces and higher end finishes, but more importantly, taxes can be half of what you would pay for similar properties east of Western. Since the public schools are mostly equally sucky on either side of the tracks, it's not a bad choice.

I would not waste my time with a condo in Humboldt Park. If I was going to buy there it would be a 2 or 3 flat or a SFH.

If someone is paying 400k (or 300k for that matter) for a condo that is anything less than a ultra-luxury 3 bedroom in Avondale, Humboldt Park,Logan Square,etc...they are paying WAY too much.

[Lookout Kid]

Originally Posted by Avengerfire

If someone is paying 400k (or 300k for that matter) for a condo that is anything less than a ultra-luxury 3 bedroom in Avondale, Humboldt Park,Logan Square,etc...they are paying WAY too much.

I don't think you know the market very well to make a statement like that. There are many 2-BRs in Logan Square that are well over $300K. But they are usually pretty swank.

[Avengerfire]

Originally Posted by Lookout Kid

...There are many 2-BRs in Logan Square that are well over $300K. But they are usually pretty swank.

I said unless they were ultra-luxury which can qualify as termed "pretty swank."

It would depend on many factors, but odds are in my book over 300k for a two bedroom or three bedroom condo is far too much in Logan Square or Humboldt Park unless it is hugging Western (or on it) and really close to the Blue Line Western station.

That would be an exception.

[sunsurfwave]

What does SFH stand for?

Yeah, I agree with the pricepoints mentioned. If I decide on Humboldt there are some new construction or recent rehabs for around $200. . and I just dont see that anywhere else so close to the Loop. Those are two flats, and alot of them come with parking too.

I only have two concerns: resale and being the victim of crime. Maybe Logan Square is better on both those points? I guess I could sacrifice a little commuting distance if thats the case.

[surlycue]

Originally Posted by sunsurfwave

What does SFH stand for?

Yeah, I agree with the pricepoints mentioned. If I decide on Humboldt there are some new construction or recent rehabs for around $200. . and I just dont see that anywhere else so close to the Loop. Those are two flats, and alot of them come with parking too.

I only have two concerns: resale and being the victim of crime. Maybe Logan Square is better on both those points? I guess I could sacrifice a little commuting distance if thats the case.

SFH= Single Family Home. If you are looking in HP, the best areas are close to Western between Division and North, along the border with Logan Square on the NE side and along the border with Ukie Village on the South and SE side.

If you are unfamiliar with urban blight though I would definitely not recommend looking in Humboldt at all and may even tell you to avoid most of Logan Square. Why not continue to rent? Rent in a smaller apartment in a less desirable neighborhood to save up more money for a down payment. Why not rent in Humboldt Park for a year to get a grasp on what the neighborhood is like. Believe me in a years time Humboldt Park will still be pretty crappy and housing prices will only continue to go down.

[Hambo]

Once again living near Western between Division and Chicago for the last 3 years I've seen allot of positive changes. Walk up Chicago from Western to California and there's tons of new condos as well as new restaurants. California Avenue itself has had allot of new development in the past three years. I enjoy the fact that i'm near Ukie Village, Bucktown, and Wicker Park. And am also near one of the largest, nicest parks in the city (Humboldt). I'm not suggesting that its for everyone, but for folks to categorically say not to move West of Western is ridiculous. There's blocks (sections) East of Western (I walk the area almost every day) that I personally think are less desirable.

I'm actually looking to by another place in this area. I don't understand why I would spend 25%more for a place that's one or two blocks East -- that logic escapes me.

[BRU67]

Originally Posted by Waukegan

Then you don't want to be in west West Town or Logan Square. Maybe you'll avoid crime personally, but getting burglarized is par for the course (home or car).

There are less buyers today of the "gentrifying class" than there were 1-5 years ago, therefore the trend will be de-gentrification over the short term. For every person just like you, who had bought in Logan Sq. etc during 2002-2008, that is moving on in life, wants to sell, etc. today there are LESS buyers than before. Therefore, when supply is the same, and there are less buyers, prices go down and de-gentrification will occur.

This is the time to buy into a better neighborhood, which will hold its resale value much better, because when you go to sell, there will be more buyers.

If you buy in Logan Sq. or west West Town, and things in the economy remain stale, you might have a hard time unloading what you buy. This is exactly the position many there are in now.

Wihout funny money, and funny lending, an individual or a DINC couple needs $120K in income and $80K in cash to buy a $400K+ condo, and you can bet that the few of these people that exist out there, aren't in the market in Logan Square.

Interesting concept. There are no doubt fewer condo buyers than there were so that could potentially have a degentrifying effect on areas that have a lot of condos and have relied on a steady flow of young singles and DINKs to keep things moving forward if condo prices do not adjust downward to more accurately reflect rental rates.

In Berwyn, the market is mostly SFH's, and the current housing market seems to be having a gentrifying effect. What we're seeing now are a lot of DINKS and yuppies who choosing to buy a $150-250k house versus a condo in the City for the same money. I don't think there are fewer people in the "gentrifying class." What I think's happening is that with SFH prices that low, many are wondering what's the point of a condo? It isn't like you'll be safer in a City neighborhood, or get better schools, or get stellar apprecation in the foreseeable future (if ever?), or be able to rent it to cover your costs if you must move and can't sell.

I think the main reason condos were so hot earlier in the decade was because you could sell them in 3 years and bank a 50% return -- or more if you got lucky and picked the right neighborhood. That created demand and, of course a glut, which killed appreciation. So unless you can rent it for enough to cover the mortgage, taxes and assessments (good luck), justifying what for most will be a < 7 year residence is harder than it used to be. With a house, you have a lot more space, and you don't have to move the second you have a kid.

I've heard one version or other of this story several times, so it isn't an isolated thing, nor is Berwyn the only town where this is happening. So if I were to buy a condo, I'd look for one in a neighborhood with a good mix of SFH's and condos to ensure neighborhood stability.

[Irishtom29]

SFH, that's real estatese for "house", right?

[sunsurfwave]

Originally Posted by surlycue

SFH= Single Family Home. If you are looking in HP, the best areas are close to Western between Division and North, along the border with Logan Square on the NE side and along the border with Ukie Village on the South and SE side.

If you are unfamiliar with urban blight though I would definitely not recommend looking in Humboldt at all and may even tell you to avoid most of Logan Square. Why not continue to rent? Rent in a smaller apartment in a less desirable neighborhood to save up more money for a down payment. Why not rent in Humboldt Park for a year to get a grasp on what the neighborhood is like. Believe me in a years time Humboldt Park will still be pretty crappy and housing prices will only continue to go down.

I guess one reason to buy soon is the $8000 homebuyer tax credit that expires on Dec. 1, 2009.

It seems like everyone is banking on Chicago real estate falling through the floor in the next couple years. In recent months I've seen news about price declines decelerating, rising new construction starts, and some uptick in properties sold.

Plus, do you think there is a price "floor" for properties in some neighbhorhoods? True, units priced in the $300s and $400s have potential to depreciate in questionable neighborhoods, but what about a $200k flat? I haven't seen much priced below $175 at all (near Humboldt). If you buy in a blighted area for cheap it seems like you don't have much to loose since you never really put much money out there in the first place.

I don't know, does this make sense?

[surlycue]

Originally Posted by sunsurfwave

I guess one reason to buy soon is the $8000 homebuyer tax credit that expires on Dec. 1, 2009.

It seems like everyone is banking on Chicago real estate falling through the floor in the next couple years. In recent months I've seen news about price declines decelerating, rising new construction starts, and some uptick in properties sold.

Plus, do you think there is a price "floor" for properties in some neighbhorhoods? True, units priced in the $300s and $400s have potential to depreciate in questionable neighborhoods, but what about a $200k flat? I haven't seen much priced below $175 at all (near Humboldt). If you buy in a blighted area for cheap it seems like you don't have much to loose since you never really put much money out there in the first place.

I don't know, does this make sense?

My take on the credit is that since it has had some success in stirring an otherwise flatlining market, the credit will be extended until at least April. Anywhere where there is snowfall becomes a home sale nightmare in the winter months so while the credit may entice people until the end of November, it will crash even further then it did in Sept of 08 when the big bank bailouts began and foreclosures skyrocketed. Another catastophy will cause too many issues for this administration and the people overall to allow it to happen. I cannot imagine the credit will be allowed to end until there has been a real positive upward shift to the economy as a whole.

As for purchasing in a blighted area for what you see as bottom prices; that is the risk. That is where many people made their money in the 02-05 years but I don't know that anyone but your realtor who is trying to get their 3% is going to tell you that prices have bottomed in areas like Humboldt Park. You would be safer buying into highly desirable areas that will retain their value to a greater extent (Jenny Ames goes into why to some degree here: Setting the Record Straight on Forbes’ Lincoln Park Market Report : Live and Play in Chicago) than areas that have a substantial number of variables that must syncronize in order for there to be a gain in value.