For all the hysteria about rising crime in Chicago, explain this?! (Cicero: crime rate, safe area)

[Chicago60614]

Originally Posted by Attrill

The media is definitely part of it, but I think there are a number of reasons

- Some neighborhoods in the SW part of the city are experiencing a jump in crime. These are areas that have generally been thought of as safe that seem to be taking a downturn. While crime in the city overall is not up, there are some sections of the city that are seeing a real increase

- Some sensational crimes have occurred this year that are getting a lot of media attention. Three cops have been shot and killed this year, two of them while off duty.

- After years of crimes rates dropping, the last few years have seen crime levels remaining level. This is discouraging, especially since LA and NYC have had greater drops in crime. This leaves Chicago as the city with highest number of homicides, although it's homicide rate is average among American cities (and at near historical lows for Chicago). This leads the mathematically impaired to call Chicago the murder capitol of the US.

- The mood of the country. With the economy in the crapper people are pessimistic and are prone to making mountains out of molehills. Chicago is not the only city where the perception doesn't match the reality.

The media part of it is a combination of a lot of elements. A lot of crimes are now video recorded by people with cell phone cameras or security cameras. Many of these crimes would have just been a short blurb in the paper, but now that the news has video to show they get more attention. Since Obama was elected there are also conservative pundits and politicians who are determined to make Chicago look like hell on earth, and they are blowing a lot of issues that Chicago has WAY out of proportion to reality.

Well I believe 2003 and one other year around that time were the only periods where Chicago actually beat out NYC for having the most murders of any city - although for LA being a larger city population wise, they certainly have been bringing in lower numbers than Chicago. They also have some pretty intense suburbs though regarding murders, while a majority of Chicago's bad areas are IN Chicago except for a few southern suburbs.

The rate of decrease is shrinking, but at least it's going in the right direction!

1991: 90,522 Up from year before
1992: 84,261 down 7%
1994: 78,352 down 7%
1996: 67,498 down 14%
1998: 62,947 down 7%
1999: 50,524 down 20%
2000: 48,273 down 5%
2001: 46,685 down 3%
2002: 45,961 down 2%
2003: 39,575 down 14%
2004: 36,786 down 7%
2005: 36,207 down 2%
2006: 35,290 down 3%
2007: 35,021 down 1%
2008: 35,764 up 2%
2009: 33,486 down 6%

The first 7 months of the year are at 17,000 violent crimes, down 11%. I'm guessing we should probably come in around 30,000-31,000 for the year. A far cry from the 90,000+ of the early 1990's.

[Avengerfire]

"For all the hysteria about rising crime in Chicago" there is just as much obsession about how crime is not that bad.

For the life of me I fail to see why we needed yet another crime thread in this forum. Looking at some of the replies there is nothing new in anyone's responses. Why the subject had to be rehashed for the 20th time is beyond me.

[tribecavsbrowns]

People are lazy and stupid, and prefer dramatic narratives to factual accounts. That's why.

[Tex?Il?]

Originally Posted by chitown85

It's not the actual numbers that lead people to believe crime is rising, it is the perception that crime is rising. So the numbers are slightly down? The vast majority of Chicagoans believe that crime is rampant. There are 2000 fewer police officers than several years ago so there is a less visible presence. Gang related crime is UP, while non gang related crime is down. The gangs are visible. Three police officers have been tragically killed this summer in cold blood.

BTW, read John Kass's article from a month or so ago about how the Chicago Police Dept. mispresents its crime statistics. If a gang member shoots three people in one incident, it gets reported as one aggravated battery, not three. If two people are robbed at gunpoint that are standing next to each other, it counts as one robbery, not two.

Not included on this list are narcotics offenses because it is impossible to quantify. But in Logan Square for examole, people see the street corners filled with gang members.

Do you think this is because of the economy? I assume in certain neighborhoods if people can't find work, they maybe to tempted into the organized crime. Drug dealing, etc.

[jdiddy]

Originally Posted by Avengerfire

"For all the hysteria about rising crime in Chicago" there is just as much obsession about how crime is not that bad.

For the life of me I fail to see why we needed yet another crime thread in this forum. Looking at some of the replies there is nothing new in anyone's responses. Why the subject had to be rehashed for the 20th time is beyond me.

My guess is without the continuous presence of those claiming crime is out of control, when the numbers clearly tell a different story, you wouldn't see the obsession about how crime is not that bad in the city overall.

This isn't a chicken or egg thing, we know what came first.

[Lookout Kid]

Originally Posted by Attrill

- Some neighborhoods in the SW part of the city are experiencing a jump in crime. These are areas that have generally been thought of as safe that seem to be taking a downturn. While crime in the city overall is not up, there are some sections of the city that are seeing a real increase.

I think that the types of neighborhoods that have traditionally been inhabited by cops are going down the tubes, with the exception of the far Northwest Side. So cops are feeling the heat at home. Add that to the J-Fed resentment and staff shortages, and the demoralized cops feel like the city is going down the tubes.

[chicago103]

Originally Posted by Lookout Kid

I think that the types of neighborhoods that have traditionally been inhabited by cops are going down the tubes, with the exception of the far Northwest Side. So cops are feeling the heat at home. Add that to the J-Fed resentment and staff shortages, and the demoralized cops feel like the city is going down the tubes.

Even if that is true the numbers show that it is far far far far far from beyond repair unlike the way some people inflicted with chicken little syndrome are saying.

[Huckleberry3911948]

its like here, the city tries to play down the crime, manipulates the stats to make it look better.
but crime is a problem. that is why any public transport expansion system will have to go on hold until we clean it up. the cops have pretty much been given the message, back off. that does not spell good news for chicago residents.

[ajolotl]

Originally Posted by Huckleberry3911948

its like here, the city tries to play down the crime, manipulates the stats to make it look better.
but crime is a problem. that is why any public transport expansion system will have to go on hold until we clean it up. the cops have pretty much been given the message, back off. that does not spell good news for chicago residents.

".. manipulates the stats ...": Seems like a rather major accusation to make so casually. Not that I doubt this could (or even does) happen, but how do people know these things? Is there an investigative report you can point to, did you do your own research, or is it just common sense or a hunch? If the latter, why would you think it is relatively more prevalent today compared to ten or twenty years ago?

[Huckleberry3911948]

Originally Posted by ajolotl

".. manipulates the stats ...": Seems like a rather major accusation to make so casually. Not that I doubt this could (or even does) happen, but how do people know these things? Is there an investigative report you can point to, did you do your own research, or is it just common sense or a hunch? If the latter, why would you think it is relatively more prevalent today compared to ten or twenty years ago?

what-- the tweaking of stats by police departments?
do you need links??? thousands of "personal incidents" and "false alarms" written up instead of rape, robbery and burglary?
need links? how bout a specific?
i live in a large city. there is a standard 22% write up when a black and white is sent out-- nationwide. in our city its 7%. the chief of police (now the mayor) was called out by editor of our local radio station on it live on TV-- big shoutout. when did it all start? not 20 years ago, maybe 30. where you been friend?
signed
chicago native
south side cicero