Could McHenry County vote blue in 2020? (Chicago, Crystal Lake: college, vs., moving)

[TheTimidBlueBars]

I can see it happening based on the direction other suburban Chicago counties have gone, but maybe there's something about its demographics or the character of its towns that will keep that off the table for a few more elections. What do you all think (assuming generic Democratic and Republican candidates in 2020, i.e. neither is from Illinois)?

[pvande55]

It could. It went for Trump, but not overwhelmingly. One factor keeping it red: fewer people moving there from Chicago and maybe more moving the other way.

[NorthSideSoxGuy]

It's definitely possible. It went blue for Obama in 2008 and Romney and Trump's subsequent wins there were by no means overwhelming.

I think it'll come down to a couple factors:
- Will suburbanization continue? Most of the Democratic vote in McHenry County is clustered in the southeast corner of the county (plus Woodstock), which happens to be the most suburban-like part. So if growth occurs in places like Cary, Algonquin, LITH, Crystal Lake, etc., which perhaps caters to a more white collar crowd, that may lead to an uptick in the Democratic share of the vote.
- Diversity -- McHenry County remains the whitest "collar" county. As we saw in this last election, Democrats do better in areas that have more diversity. In addition to attracting college-educated whites in the suburbs, Democrats have done better there the past few cycles as suburbs have become much more diverse. McHenry County has lagged a bit behind compared to it's surrounding counties, but it's certainly becoming more diverse. If the Hispanic/Latinx population keeps growing in places like McHenry, Crystal Lake, Harvard, etc., that may also help Democrats.

But of course, much of the rural parts of the county as well as the blue-collar communities right off the Chain and Fox River will remain firm pro-Trump, in my opinion. So, not to generalize too much, but it may come down to suburbs vs. rural/exburbs as we saw in 2016.