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Old 10-29-2010, 03:21 PM
 
Location: Sacramento
14,044 posts, read 27,219,039 times
Reputation: 7373

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Democrat Jerry Brown holds a slightly smaller lead over Republican Meg Whitman in California’s gubernatorial race.

The latest Rasmussen Reports statewide telephone survey of Likely Voters shows Brown picking up 49% support, while Whitman draws the vote from 45%.

These numbers move the race from Leans Democrat back to a Toss-Up.



Election 2010: California Governor - Rasmussen Reportsâ„¢
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Old 10-29-2010, 03:25 PM
 
Location: Pasadena
7,411 posts, read 10,389,847 times
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Does anybody know or remember what the polls were saying before the 2008 election? It seems that polls are variable and one survey doesn't necessarily match another and they all seem to change week to week. But overall it appears every poll indicates that Brown is leading; some by 4-5 points while others have him ahead by over 10 points.
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Old 10-29-2010, 03:30 PM
 
Location: Sacramento
14,044 posts, read 27,219,039 times
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True, polls have some variance.

Rasmussen has a great historical track record for accuracy because they have a structure to sort out who is a more likely voter, vs who has a sentiment but will likely sit home.

What this shows me is that Brown indeed has a lead, but that the Whitman supporters are more likely to show up and vote. This isn't inconsistent to what is happening nationally, in this cycle there is a segment of "Democrat leaning" voter that is likely to just decline to participate.

Will it be enough to swing the election over to Whitman? Possibly so.
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Old 10-29-2010, 03:34 PM
 
2,963 posts, read 6,262,793 times
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Toss up eh?
































































































































































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Old 10-29-2010, 03:45 PM
 
Location: Oxygen Ln. AZ
9,319 posts, read 18,747,810 times
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I recall polls indicating that Swartzehooey did not have a chance and look what happened.
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Old 10-29-2010, 04:16 PM
 
Location: Escondido, CA
1,504 posts, read 6,152,085 times
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Quote:
Originally Posted by NewToCA View Post
Rasmussen has a great historical track record for accuracy because they have a structure to sort out who is a more likely voter, vs who has a sentiment but will likely sit home.
Nope, it really doesn't. Rasmussen has a consistent track record of being biased to the right.
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Old 10-29-2010, 04:25 PM
 
1,476 posts, read 2,024,949 times
Reputation: 704
Quote:
Originally Posted by NewToCA View Post
True, polls have some variance.

Rasmussen has a great historical track record for accuracy because they have a structure to sort out who is a more likely voter, vs who has a sentiment but will likely sit home.

What this shows me is that Brown indeed has a lead, but that the Whitman supporters are more likely to show up and vote. This isn't inconsistent to what is happening nationally, in this cycle there is a segment of "Democrat leaning" voter that is likely to just decline to participate.

Will it be enough to swing the election over to Whitman? Possibly so.
I have heard that also about the Rasmussen polls. Doesn't really matter how many people are for Brown, if they don't show up to vote, Meg will win! I have also heard that historically more Republicans than Democrats will turn out in inclement weather so I am hoping for rain next Tuesday!
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Old 10-29-2010, 04:52 PM
 
Location: Vancouver, WA
8,214 posts, read 16,700,075 times
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Quote:
Originally Posted by GottaBMe View Post
I have heard that also about the Rasmussen polls. Doesn't really matter how many people are for Brown, if they don't show up to vote, Meg will win! I have also heard that historically more Republicans than Democrats will turn out in inclement weather so I am hoping for rain next Tuesday!
LOL... Fair weather voters eh. I say let it Rain! Haha...

It's going to be really funny if Whitman wins after all those saying Brown will win by a landslide. He just doesn't seem like a landslide kind of guy to me, I don't know. But stranger things have happened here in California. Our politics have always been colorful to say the least. I think when we are called the land of fruits and nuts much of the time it relates our political appointees - moonbeam being no exception.

Derek
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Old 10-29-2010, 05:43 PM
 
434 posts, read 849,198 times
Reputation: 516
Geez

You mean all the daily (hourly) postings about a Brown win while disparaging Whitman might not work? How can that be? Well there's 96 hours left. Libs get busy! Suppose you can convince anyone on this forum to change their vote?
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Old 10-29-2010, 06:48 PM
 
Location: Pasadena
7,411 posts, read 10,389,847 times
Reputation: 1802
Quote:
Originally Posted by GottaBMe View Post
I have heard that also about the Rasmussen polls. Doesn't really matter how many people are for Brown, if they don't show up to vote, Meg will win! I have also heard that historically more Republicans than Democrats will turn out in inclement weather so I am hoping for rain next Tuesday!
The forecast for southern California on Tuesday, Nov 2 is for sun & temps from near 80 at the beach to low 90's inland. So maybe it will be too warm for the old Republicans to come out of their holes.
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