Latest Polls have whitman ahead of brown!!!!!!!!! (Davis, Arnold: buying, office)

[Lifeshadower]

Originally Posted by californio sur

You want to bet? Don't forget that Republicans are less than 30% of the registered voters and unless Democrats are willing to vote for Whitman or any Republican it will be a typical election. Even Schwarzenegger is unwilling to endorse Whitman as well as very conservative Republican leaders. Polls vary based on exposure but election day is almost 2 months away and I think you may be a lot less excited by then. But who knows, Whitman could win though the probability is not high.

Party Identification isn't really a good indicator of anything anymore. People can register whatever they want, but may forget to change their affiliation as immediately as their voting patterns (usually takes a few elections for a person to really change).

What will be truly interesting is how deep the California East-West divide will show up this election. Coastal California from Humboldt County to Los Angeles County, with the exception of San Luis Obispo and Ventura counties, will probably go for Brown. Inland California, along with Orange and San Diego Counties, will probably go for Whitman, or AT LEAST lean for Whitman.

The moderate areas are really the ones to watch. I think a good bell weather, at least in California, would be Sacramento County (while it IS inland, there are a lot of voters who are quite liberal). Since 1960, Sacramento has voted for the winner of almost every election, except for 2 (forget the years off the top of my head). It's almost like Ohio for the rest of the country.

I wish polling data for more localized areas was available.

[californio sur]

Originally Posted by Lifeshadower

Party Identification isn't really a good indicator of anything anymore. People can register whatever they want, but may forget to change their affiliation as immediately as their voting patterns (usually takes a few elections for a person to really change).

What will be truly interesting is how deep the California East-West divide will show up this election. Coastal California from Humboldt County to Los Angeles County, with the exception of San Luis Obispo and Ventura counties, will probably go for Brown. Inland California, along with Orange and San Diego Counties, will probably go for Whitman, or AT LEAST lean for Whitman.

The moderate areas are really the ones to watch. I think a good bell weather, at least in California, would be Sacramento County (while it IS inland, there are a lot of voters who are quite liberal). Since 1960, Sacramento has voted for the winner of almost every election, except for 2 (forget the years off the top of my head). It's almost like Ohio for the rest of the country.

I wish polling data for more localized areas was available.

Good point but actually all coastal counties with of exception of Del Norte and Orange voted Democratic in the last election and all southern California counties with the except of Orange voted Democratic. But I think you may be correct that San Luis Obispo, Ventura, Orange and maybe San Diego counties could go Republican [also Riverside] though Imperial always votes Democratic and San Bernardino could go either way. Los Angeles county is the largest however and along with the Bay Area the two regions make up half the state's population. That's why LA and the Bay Area can determine elections so long as other small counties also vote Democratic [like Santa Barbara, Monterey, Santa Cruz & all the north coastal counties with the exception of Del Norte]. Sacramento, Yolo, San Joaquin & a few other Central Valley counties could be close calls.

[MtnSurfer]

There is a nationwide trend moving heavily toward republican candidates this election even in states which normally favored dems. The upsets have and will continue happen accross the nation. Even the Tea Partiers are winning. Just watch the news. Combine this current political trend with what we are seeing in the polls in California and it is consistently in Favor of Whitman. Policitics much of the time follows these trends and tends to be knee jerk in nature - a visceral kind of experience. Obama came in on one these same type of waves moving in the other direction after a nationwide reaction to the Bush years.

Combine all these factors with California's poor economic condition, the need to spur business growth and possibilty of actually bringing someone in with business experience vs. a career politician aka moonbeam and the end result looks fairly obvious. Like Whitman or not odds are she will pull out the win this time around.

Derek

[Gentoo]

Originally Posted by MtnSurfer

There is a nationwide trend moving heavily toward republican candidates this election even in states which normally favored dems. The upsets have and will continue happen accross the nation. Even the Tea Partiers are winning. Just watch the news. Combine this current political trend with what we are seeing in the polls in California and it is consistently in Favor of Whitman. Policitics much of the time follows these trends and tends to be knee jerk in nature - a visceral kind of experience. Obama came in on one these same type of waves moving in the other direction after a nationwide reaction to the Bush years.

Combine all these factors with California's poor economic condition, the need to spur business growth and possibilty of actually bringing someone in with business experience vs. a career politician aka moonbeam and the end result looks fairly obvious. Like Whitman or not odds are she will pull out the win this time around.

Derek

Whitman likely will win. I think we will also likely have another Gray Davis situation.

[Mike3531]

Am I the only one who is troubled by the fact that Whitman has spent so much of her own money? Maybe it's just me, but I don't think anyone spends $100+ million of their own money just to become governor and "help save the state," no one is that selfless.

[Gentoo]

Originally Posted by Mike3531

Am I the only one who is troubled by the fact that Whitman has spent so much of her own money? Maybe it's just me, but I don't think anyone spends $100+ million of their own money just to become governor and "help save the state," no one is that selfless.

No you're not the only one who feels this way. However that $100+ million you mention is exactly why she might win.

[Gurbie]

Originally Posted by Mike3531

Am I the only one who is troubled by the fact that Whitman has spent so much of her own money? Maybe it's just me, but I don't think anyone spends $100+ million of their own money just to become governor and "help save the state," no one is that selfless.

No Mike, you're not the only one who is troubled. If Whitman wins, she will have effectively purchased herself a governorship. Looks like the theory and practice of democracy hasn't evolved much since the days of the Roman Republic.

[nmnita]

Originally Posted by Gentoo

Whitman likely will win. I think we will also likely have another Gray Davis situation.

I think you are right.

Nita

[nmnita]

Originally Posted by Mike3531

Am I the only one who is troubled by the fact that Whitman has spent so much of her own money? Maybe it's just me, but I don't think anyone spends $100+ million of their own money just to become governor and "help save the state," no one is that selfless.

Mike, that really isn't the point. It is her money, running for public office today costs an outragious amount of money and though it doesn't bother me, I think it is getting out of hand.

Nita

[SacalaitWhisperer]

Vote for the Moonbeam. Its important.

:/