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Well, yes to be precise, there's plenty if not too many pilots who could take these jobs. Problem is there isn't incentive to do so.
Indeed, but it's a false dichotomy in all honesty. Everybody who understands basic microeconomics can see that the advent of a gazillion 50-75 seater RJ routes was not borne out of necessity. It was but a mere convenience built on cheap labor who was willing to do so on the promise that they would only have to endure it for 2 years, not 10.
Fast forward to today.That economic construct is OVER. As such, regionals will naturally shrink, instead of raising pay, which they cannot to do by the very design of the business model that gets them flying contracts in the first place. This is good for those players that remain in the game. The problem is that it CRUSHES the dream of the swaths of people "who'd do it for free if they let me" who now no longer have access to the right seat of turbine equipment to the degree that they had in the past, cut throat wages be damned. In the end it's a net positive for the industry. Nobody is owed their dream of doing something deemed fun for a living. Residents of economic-irrelevant locations aren't owed 6-9 departures to Orlando FL to see Mickey Mouse for $99/rt either. They can always drive 3-6 hours to the nearest profitable hub. Life ain't fair.
Mainline equipment can provide cheaper prices due to the CASM being much lower. DAL runs Airbus and Boeings where US Air runs CRJ-200's on some similar routes. The trick is being able to fill those seats. With consolidation I think you're going to see bigger planes, maybe slightly less frequency, similar ticket prices, and a MUCH healthier industry.
Airline margins traditionally, on average, run in the 0.02%-0.03% range. For an industry that takes HUGE liability risks and infrastructure investments, that is absurdly small.
Mainline equipment can provide cheaper prices due to the CASM being much lower. DAL runs Airbus and Boeings where US Air runs CRJ-200's on some similar routes. The trick is being able to fill those seats. With consolidation I think you're going to see bigger planes, maybe slightly less frequency, similar ticket prices, and a MUCH healthier industry.
Airline margins traditionally, on average, run in the 0.02%-0.03% range. For an industry that takes HUGE liability risks and infrastructure investments, that is absurdly small.
Absolutely. What you're also going to see is some of the more remote markets lose air service completely. My personal little hellhole on earth lost air service already last year around spring time. Which makes sense. This outrigger border town is poor as fluck and those few who can afford to travel opt to drive 3 hours to San Antonio. More flying cuts will follow IMO. I don't blame the airlines one bit. It's a thin thin profit margin model in the first place and they're not running a charity.
As to the efficiencies derived by capacity constriction and load optimization, the problem is that it will make it an even more bare-bones and uncomfortable experience than in decades past. Less departures, less options when cancellations happen, full flights all the damn time, et al. But that's a consumer problem, not one that deals with labor QOL. Additionally, such efficiencies all but render the supposed travel benefits of dependents of pilots and flight attendants all but worthless. Kinda like Space-A travel in the military. If you want to be somewhere on a fixed date, then these travel benefits are not benefits at all.
I understand this is going to kick a lot of dreamers back into an office job begrudgingly, but it will be a net positive for the pay and working conditions of the aggregate who remain employed. If doctors can collude in order to keep pay high, so should pilots. The regionals in the present format need to go.
The only alternative for regional dreamers will be whatever expat opportunities there are in the Pacific and Middle East. Of course, in spite of the pay, there's an inherently concessionary nature to giving up on the cultural construct you desire to live in because of economic reasons. Life is a choice after all.
...I understand this is going to kick a lot of dreamers back into an office job begrudgingly, but it will be a net positive for the pay and working conditions of the aggregate who remain employed. If doctors can collude in order to keep pay high, so should pilots. The regionals in the present format need to go...
Totally agree with your entire post.
Pilots tend to be their own worst enemies and the pilot unions rarely seem to assist in improving the working conditions and setting the standard for pilot compensation. The first time someone said "I'd do this job for free" the profession was doomed to face an uphill battle regarding compensation, and pay has been cut, slashed, and cut again over the years in order to achieve new regional flying contracts.
It's water under the bridge now, but the union position should have required all flying to be accomplished by company pilots at negotiated wages, and not outsourced to pit one regional provider against another. The unions should have been fighting to push mandatory minimum time/experience requirements to all employers to control entry into the profession and then fought tooth and nail to abolish the seniority based pay system that supports the good of the company as opposed to the union members (forcing furloughed employees to start over in pay when acquiring a position with a new company).
The nation's regional airlines are having trouble hiring enough pilots, the government says, suggesting one reason may be that they simply don't pay enough.
A pool of qualified pilots is available, but it's unclear whether they are willing to work for low entry-level wages, the Government Accountability Office said in a report released Friday.
Quote:
"Data indicate that a large pool of qualified pilots exists relative to the projected demand, but whether such pilots are willing or available to work at wages being offered is unknown," the report said. And, the size of the pilot pool has remained steady since 2000, the report said.
There are currently 66,000 pilots working for U.S. airlines, but there are 109,465 currently active pilots with a first-class medical certificate who are licensed to fly airline passengers, the report said. An additional 100,000-plus pilots with commercial licenses might at some point choose to pursue an airline career, the report said
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