Foreclosures in Austin Jump (Bastrop, Hays: sale, real estate, mortgages)

[austinite45]

statesman.com | Austin area foreclosure postings jump | The Real Deal (http://www.statesman.com/blogs/content/shared-gen/blogs/austin/realestate/entries/2009/09/22/austin_area_foreclosure_postin.html - broken link)

Compared to October last year, foreclosure postings are up 79% in Travis County, 66% in Williamson, 80% in Hays, and 39% in Bastrop.

I wonder what the figures will be after a few more rounds of mass layoffs.

[sliverbox]

Holy crap. That's like Bay Area style foreclosures.

[Jennibc]

They're up 79% yes, but if there were very few foreclosures to begin with, then 79% of very few might not mean that many actual foreclosures. For instance, say there were only 100 last year and this year there are 179, not a big deal.

[jacksonian]

That's the wonderful thing about "stats" - they can be used by anyone on any side of any discussion to make their own point.

The trick is finding the stats that really matter and give the clearest picture overall.

[sliverbox]

What matters here is that the numbers of foreclosures are increasing and doing so considerably. That's what trend data is for. It shows patterns of activity. I'd say from reading about real estate news in Austin that the area is about 1 to 1.5 years behind the rest of the country thus with that said. I'd expect foreclosures to increase.

[TexasHorseLady]

Well, the figure they cite is 1,481 properties in Central Texas which they say is up 72% over the same sale on the same date last year. How does that figure into the overall number of mortgages in existence in Central Texas? I'm guessing that's a very tiny percentage.

[TexasHorseLady]

Originally Posted by sliverbox

What matters here is that the numbers of foreclosures are increasing and doing so considerably. That's what trend data is for. It shows patterns of activity. I'd say from reading about real estate news in Austin that the area is about 1 to 1.5 years behind the rest of the country thus with that said. I'd expect foreclosures to increase.

Remember, we have those high property taxes that you don't like that kept Texas from falling down the same rabbit hole. Will we be impacted? Yes, because we are part of the same overall economy. Will we be impacted in the same way and as bad? It doesn't appear to be working that way, thus all the people from the states where there were no such checks and balances in place moving here in great numbers.

[sliverbox]

I hear the same thing from so many people in other areas- that they aren't as bad as some of those "other" places. Its all about economics of scale. Austin has a lower median income, higher property taxes, not the best job market, and a number of other factors that could just as easily place the area in a similar decline as some of those "other" places. Then again you could be correct and it won't get as bad. But bad is a relative word. Foreclosures means lowering property prices which in turn it opens up markets to new buyers who couldn't afford there previously. Foreclosures and falling prices also indicates that a correction was necessary. No single asset or investment can just go up and up forever. Corrections are just as healthy as booms. It also means more business and stability for people like yourself in the RE biz.

[orbius]

If its this bad now I would imagine it will be downright dismal at the new year when thousands dont pay their property tax.

[HappyTexan]

Foreclosures are inevitable.
People get laid off from jobs and cannot find new ones.
People move here without jobs and cannot find new ones.

It's a correction. It's happening worldwide. Some areas will fall harder than others.
Best bet is to keep as little debt as possible and build up a good rainy day fund...just in case.

All that said, I do believe that we are not in a bad place to weather out this economic storm.
High property taxes IMHO was a big contributor in keeping any Texas RE bubbles from getting too big.