Austin growth will absolutely overwhelm roads and highways starting in 2011 - new study (West: real estate market, 2015)

[inthecut]

According to the study, monies to build out road infrastructure in central Texas, centered on Austin, will be far short of what is needed. 27% of the monies will come short, from 2011-2035, which will lead to quite horrendous gridlock on Austin's local roads and freeways. It's already a foregone conclusion that the pace cannot keep up even with the population we have now. Whatever added population in the years 2011-2035 will add to that gridlock 100%. End result.....a metro that will quickly have such a overcongestion problem that the Quality of Life of the same will drop markedly. Only question is when the overwhelming gridlock will take place. If shortly after 2011, it could be absolutely insufferable by 2015, becoming a mini - Southern California of sorts......

If I am reading today's Austin American article right...

Planners see dip in money for new roads (http://www.statesman.com/news/content/news/stories/local/2009/09/15/0915transpo.html - broken link)

....then could we be seeing the end of Austin's "growth" as we know it?
Have we reached a finite carrying capacity of roads, per a wall in financial resources to maintain the same?.......Have we just seen the "Glory Days" of Austin's growth pass by from "1985-present day", only to be eclipsed by overcrowding and poor rapid transit planning.....in short, stupidity, myopia, and greed?

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Per the article..

"In any case, transit advocates say key arteries Interstate 35 and MoPac Boulevard (Loop 1), confined by development, can't be expanded enough to accommodate what CAMPO expects to be a near doubling of the Central Texas population to 3.2 million in 2035. Public transit — buses and rail — will have to take up the slack, they say. The CAMPO estimates, which officials with the planning agency say are still subject to refinements, paint a gloomy picture of the area's ability to respond to the presence of all those people."

"CAMPO principal planner Stevie Greathouse said the greater emphasis on maintenance of existing systems reflects a growing awareness in the transportation industry that infrastructure has been allowed to deteriorate. Given projected inflation in construction costs, Greathouse said the actual ability to build road and rail capacity would fall by as much as 50 percent."

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Note I did not mention the probability of a large spike in gas prices in the next 5-10 years, which would compound the congestion, with the nightmare scenario of no funding available for public transportation even if wanted, not enough roads for cars, and no alternative to unaffordable mobility........overcrowded roads would just be a PART of that scenario....

And thank California for giving the nation the "living in your car" cultural meme of urban sprawl, which they seem to be predestined to spread in turn across much of the Western US, as they migrate their unsustainable lifestyles to more "affordable" pastures, after turing their state real estate market into a giant Ponzi scheme and bankrupting the statehouse......

[iceshots]

So if people living outside or on the edge of Austin cannot get to their jobs near the interior of Austin what happens? Do people move closer in to be able to get to their jobs, or do the jobs move out to be closer to the employees?

Option 1 encourages high density growth in the city core if the housing is there. But you need the public transit to make this happen.

Option 2 sounds like the beginning of the collapse of the core like has happened in many other cities.

[inthecut]

Originally Posted by iceshots

So if people living outside or on the edge of Austin cannot get to their jobs near the interior of Austin what happens? Do people move closer in to be able to get to their jobs, or do the jobs move out to be closer to the employees?

Option 1 encourages high density growth in the city core if the housing is there. But you need the public transit to make this happen.

Option 2 sounds like the beginning of the collapse of the core like has happened in many other cities.

Iceshots...it's been a "chicken/egg" conundrum for years.....like a Buddist Koan Mystery.....I can see a Yoda figure, sitting indian-style, muttering...

"A shame, we cannnot solve this traffic mystery, Yes?......they want to grow, yet they do not want to buy new clothes to take in the growth...the bottons will pop, and the fabric will rend and rip.....why they not want to buy new and proper clothes(infrastructure), I know not..."

[CarnivalGal]

Well that new rail system should solve all our problems

[iceshots]

Originally Posted by inthecut

they want to grow, yet they do not want to buy new clothes to take in the growth...the buttons will pop, and the fabric will rend and rip.....why they not want to buy new and proper clothes(infrastructure), I know not..."

Its the infrastructure version of "The Emperor's New Clothes"

Look mother, he has no freeways.

[centralaustinite]

I live central, can walk to work and my spouse usually telecommutes, so I guess we are set!

Congestion will force people to take other routes, telecommute, move, etc.

Open roads encourage driving. Texas 130 hasn't done a thing for I-35 congestion, all it is has done is given a boost to development on the far east side. More roads aren't a perfect solution either.

[nomore07]

Originally Posted by inthecut

Iceshots...it's been a "chicken/egg" conundrum for years.....like a Buddist Koan Mystery.....I can see a Yoda figure, sitting indian-style, muttering...

"A shame, we cannnot solve this traffic mystery, Yes?......they want to grow, yet they do not want to buy new clothes to take in the growth...the bottons will pop, and the fabric will rend and rip.....why they not want to buy new and proper clothes(infrastructure), I know not..."

LOL

Adding to the issue is the majority of employers which are downtown or close to it. In many other cities, jobs are spread out into the burbs. Take DFW for example.

The light rail may have helped somewhat if it weren't put on hold by so many factors, not to mention only serving a limited route. Too little too late.

[centralaustinite]

And even with infinite money, you can't build/improve roads before 2011!

I guess life will be interesting! At least we won't have to wait long to find out.

[TedH71]

After living in Austin for 25 years and then moving to Wichita, KS...it's been a nice change...you can get anywhere in the town in less than 15-20 mins. With that being said, I seem to recall the bus authority in Austin saying they were working with the city to make I-35 more car friendly by having people drive thru the town in underground tunnels (more speedy) and on top of the highway would be the regular streets that cross over on I-35 so there would be less people driving...am I making any sense here?

[mimimomx3]

Well, since we are broke and in the middle of a recession, let's just let the quality of life drop and see what happens. People will either deal with it or move away. Problem solved.