New Home Purchase Questions - Atlanta area

[neil0311]

Originally Posted by mrpanda

Regarding real estate in Johns Creek and Alpharetta, it appears that bottom was set in March 2009 and January 2010.

I've noticed the same thing in Cobb, but when I made that observation on this forum and dared to make the case that prices have at least stabilized and are not continuing to decline, the arbiters of gloom and doom jumped all over me.

The truth seems to be that in areas where foreclosures have been worse, in lower income areas, that the problems continue, but in many higher income areas like Alpharetta prices have stabilized. When you look at the Case-Shiller numbers in aggregate for Atlanta, there is a YOY decline in prices, but when you look at some areas in specific, you will see what you saw.

[TimelessClassic]

Originally Posted by neil0311

I've noticed the same thing in Cobb, but when I made that observation on this forum and dared to make the case that prices have at least stabilized and are not continuing to decline, the arbiters of gloom and doom jumped all over me.

The truth seems to be that in areas where foreclosures have been worse, in lower income areas, that the problems continue, but in many higher income areas like Alpharetta prices have stabilized. When you look at the Case-Shiller numbers in aggregate for Atlanta, there is a YOY decline in prices, but when you look at some areas in specific, you will see what you saw.

I agree. The media reports real estate as if it is a national market. Real estate is not national, state-wide or even regional. It is local. What happens in Vegas, Phoenix, South Florida doesn't effect housing in Johns Creek or Alpharetta. When the media reports 12 million foreclosures, for example, how do they effect prices in JC or Alpharetta? I agree there are areas in Atlanta that have been adversely effected by foreclosures (like Lawrenceville) but in areas of good incomes, good locations and good schools, single-family homes are in demand. One such area is Chamblee. Good schools, great location (inside the Perimeter), 5 miles from Lenox and Perimeter Malls, etc. Homes in this area have actually increased in value from 3-4 years ago. If a house is listed, there is a surge of showings, as long as it is move-in ready and not overpriced. Experts' predictions th it will take 10 years for housing to recover are very general overall opinions. Local conditions will override them. I'm excited about single-family areas of Atlanta that have good locations, good schools and close proximity to amenities.

[mrpanda]

Originally Posted by neil0311

I've noticed the same thing in Cobb, but when I made that observation on this forum and dared to make the case that prices have at least stabilized and are not continuing to decline, the arbiters of gloom and doom jumped all over me.

The truth seems to be that in areas where foreclosures have been worse, in lower income areas, that the problems continue, but in many higher income areas like Alpharetta prices have stabilized. When you look at the Case-Shiller numbers in aggregate for Atlanta, there is a YOY decline in prices, but when you look at some areas in specific, you will see what you saw.

Neil, from my observation the market in Atlanta is very similar to what happening in orange county, california real estate market. The tier 1 areas are stabiliizing and increasing in value (i.e. Irvine, Laguna Niguel, Mission Viejo, Aliso Viejo, while the tier 2 locations are falling and stabilizing like La Habra, Fullerton, and Anaheim. One major difference is that OC real estate traced back to 2003 levels where Atlanta real estate traced back to 2001 level at the bottom. This is similar in the northern Atlanta market. The tier #1 suburban locations are rising double digits like Alpharetta, Johns Creek, Roswell, and possibly Sand Springs while the tier 2 are falling and stabilizing. Gwinnett County Suwanee and Duluth is a perfect tier #2 example as most of the investors who bought at the top of the market were Korean speculators living in New York, Virginia, and Chicago. This is one of the reason why the foreclosure and distressed properties were so high in the surrounding newer subdivisions of Sugarloaf Country Club asthey ran out of money to continue to carry these empty new homes. I predict that the tier 1 cities Johns Creek, Apharetta, Roswell, and Sandy Springs will rise first than the tier 2 locations like Suwanee and Duluth will soon follow. Long term... I am betting my money on Atlanta as California is what was in the past and Georgia is what is in the future. I am incredibly bullish in Atlanta Real Estate in the next ten years.

[TimelessClassic]

Originally Posted by mrpanda

These are good signs for the people who own real estate in Johns Creek, Alpharetta, Suwanee, and Duluth today.

Also the thing to remember is that Zillow is conservative in their estimation. There are areas where they show values falling but where values have actually increased given recent sales.

[TimelessClassic]

Originally Posted by mrpanda

Long term...I am incredibly bullish in Atlanta Real Estate in the next ten years.

Me too, given the right location, schools, proximity to highways and amenities and the right product (single-family over condos). Ten years from now, people in Atlanta would have forgotten all this - and we will probably be in another bubble, albeit a non-real estate one :-)