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Even if PRC completely collapses Taiwan is not interested in reunifying with China or enter into any sort of confederacy/union. In that event there would only be more coast guards keeping the refugees from coming. Nobody gives a **** about China whether it's PRC or under the state of civil war (which many people hope will happen soon lol) or whatever. It's a piece of **** neighbouring country full of extremely uncivilised, ignorant, indoctrinated people. Nothing more. Not even when disaster strikes China and hundreds/thousands die would you see much sympathy. People here would laugh/shrug then forget about it the next second.
That's basically how most people view China here. Oycrumbler knows jack**** because he's one of those typical Taiwanese-Americans who moved away decades ago and visits like once every 3 years or something, lol.
The beef is with the CCP for me. Maybe you’re right that Blues who favour reunification are a small minority nowadays, I really don’t know. Most immigrants here in Canada from Taiwan are waishengren who came many decades ago, so as someone who’s never been to Taiwan, I can’t really guess what the politics landscape is like now. The kind of rhetoric around a China being uncivilized, etc though is exactly what the CCP wants because the more alienated from the West the population is, the more radical ideas they can brainwash the people with. Not unlike what terrorist groups in the Middle East do. There’s a lot of deep wounds in East Asia, I just hope they can heal with time. Europe did it, I hope you guys can get there one day too
The last time China was split into multiple parts, was the warlord period of 1916 to 1928. Quite a bloody time. China history has shown it can't be split into factions. The individual states will just fight into unification. Confederations are really a Western based concept that has been imposed on other regions of the world to often disastrous results.
I don't think you're following Chinese history very well if you don't think China can't split into factions since China has been fragmented and sometimes for very extended duration for very many different spans of its history. Essentially, it's not clear that China can stay unified either, and what is or is not considered China changes a lot. What's more, I'm not saying that China can't be a unitary state--a confederation is still a single entity, but it is made up of various parts that have a high degree of autonomy which is also been a fairly common occurrence within Chinese history. It is not a western concept though obviously saying confederation in English does mean using a language derived from Western culture.
Something like this would be the only realistic way Taiwan reunifies without the complete collapse of the PRC. Taiwan will never, ever unify with the mainland under the rule of the CCP. That’s a completely fabricated pipe dream that no one will ever accept in Taiwan, and the CCP would probably cause the entire world to be flattened by a nuclear war before it would ever come to fruitition. If a very loose confederation with zero influence of the CCP on Taiwan, and no reliance on the PLA for defence were possibility some pro-Beijing KMT supporters might go for it. Still would probably be a tough sell for the majority in Taiwan, I’m guessing.
What the CCP is and what the PRC is can change significantly over time, so I don't think there's a fast and hard rule that would apply for a long-term future about what citizens of Taiwan would find palatable. I'm not in abstract particularly for or against the notion of unified or separated nation-state that includes both the island of Taiwan and much or all of the current Chinese nation, but I do think there is no good way for unification that isn't destructive and on net a bad idea in terms of wasted lives and resources and a great overall increase in human misery any time in the near future.
CCP leadership has made, in my view, a very bad turn with the consolidation and lengthening of the rule of XJP and has bucked the successful formula of fairly pragmatic science, engineering, and economics driven growth with a mostly understandable and organized transition of power between successive generations of ruling powers that did have a strongman but balanced by a strong committee that together made sure to not hold on to power through the viewpoints and efforts of a single generation let alone a single individual. The hagiographic terms by which Chinese media describes XJP now and the assumption of a third term with a further consolidation of power within a singular position and the filling of other members of the politburo pulled from XJP's personal sphere is rife with risk for the Chinese citizenry and risks the kind of bad decision making and information flow that often hits authoritarian dictatorships that cement their power for the sake of cementing power and can brook no dissent which in perhaps modern times is most visible with Putin in Russia, Kim in North Korea, and Maduro in Venezuela which is to say, not great for pragmatic decision making and not great for the prosperity of the citizenry.
Last edited by OyCrumbler; 03-23-2023 at 12:36 PM..
just like the USSR? hahaha, i'd say we try that first in the US, just two parts needed: red states and blue states and we will achieve peace for mankind!!!
as for new zealand, they don't have much military so I think they would stay neutral for sure.
it doesn't matter how many allies there are, no one in their right mind would want to fight a naval battle close to the mainland of a super power. It doens't matter if you bring the entire world's navy. it would not outnumber the silos/mobile launcher and missiles in china.
I would think the USSR would be a pretty undesirable outcome both during its existence and its aftermath. I think the European Union is pretty successful as is Canada. The US does sort of exist with a fair bit of devolution of power for a unitary state, and I am in some ways in favor of greater devolution of power and how taxes and funding is allocated. Where in the US do you live? It seems like if you moved to the US as you stated in the other thread, you might be at least somewhat in favor of a democratic government system with a somewhat high degree of decentralization.
I'm not sure why New Zealand would stay neutral. They had even less of a military for previous wars they've engaged in on the side of their long-standing allies. I think it's more likely that you didn't really know about the various changes in attitudes and events that have transpired in New Zealand in recent years and thought things had stayed static where New Zealand's government and its populace *were* actually pretty receptive to China. However, the Chinese governments taking of that as an entreaty to try to infiltrate NZ politics from multiple levels and the revealing of this to the public has greatly soured both popular perception of and political goodwill towards China in New Zealand. This was arguably very much an unforced error by China's government.
I agree that it's doubtful that any power will directly send troops and engage in open warfare with China so close to its borders. What's more likely is what was seen in Russia when they invaded Ukraine where a lot of financial, materiel, intelligence and diplomatic support was given to Ukraine while Russia was hit with sanctions. Supposedly, this would also be a good chance for Russia to then claw back influence in Central Asia and for India to push its concerns along its border dispute with China, but who knows. What it will likely be though is a bad waste of time and resources for everyone involved. Much better would be for China to so rapidly and thoroughly improve its quality of life and living standards from good and intelligent governance that Taiwanese actually want to voluntarily vote to join with China without any behind the scenes manipulation.
Last edited by OyCrumbler; 03-23-2023 at 12:37 PM..
I’m not sure I agree with you OyCrumbler. If the US or at least NATO doesn’t give military support including troops to Taiwan, South Korea and Japan will likely develop nuclear weapons because the US would prove by its inaction that it will not keep its promise to defend them.
I’m not sure I agree with you OyCrumbler. If the US or at least NATO doesn’t give military support including troops to Taiwan, South Korea and Japan will likely develop nuclear weapons because the US would prove by its inaction that it will not keep its promise to defend them.
There's not much to agree or disagree with here. The US has no defense treaty with Taiwan that commits troops on the ground. This is different from its treaties with South Korea and Japan. This is why I think Russia's invasion of Ukraine is somewhat instructive as there was also no defense treaty with commitments to troops on the ground from NATO as a group or from the US as a nation.
We live in bizarro land now where you get called a warmonger for sending an ally money or weapons. Even if it’s to help a country protect themselves during a unilateral expansionist invasion and attempted annexation. I’m sure the America first isolationists would throw a fit if the US tried to help Taiwan. Still, in reality if a Chinese invasion , god forbid, actually happens it would make Russia/Ukraine look like playtime. There’s thousands of US troops in Okinawa for a reason. They’re not there to play cowboys and Indians and drink sake. AFAIK Taiwan no longer has an official treaty with the US because of Nixon frothing at the mouth of 1 billion mainlanders to buy American goods and sell cheap labour. I still think the expectation of protection is there.
There's not much to agree or disagree with here. The US has no defense treaty with Taiwan that commits troops on the ground. This is different from its treaties with South Korea and Japan. This is why I think Russia's invasion of Ukraine is somewhat instructive as there was also no defense treaty with commitments to troops on the ground from NATO as a group or from the US as a nation.
There is something in between military assistance and fighting China close to its border.
My opinion is that the USA is likely to setup a sea blockade against China. Then China can either sends ships to the open sea and fight the US Navy close to US military bases or just accept being blockaded and suffer.
We live in bizarro land now where you get called a warmonger for sending an ally money or weapons. Even if it’s to help a country protect themselves during a unilateral expansionist invasion and attempted annexation. I’m sure the America first isolationists would throw a fit if the US tried to help Taiwan. Still, in reality if a Chinese invasion , god forbid, actually happens it would make Russia/Ukraine look like playtime. There’s thousands of US troops in Okinawa for a reason. They’re not there to play cowboys and Indians and drink sake. AFAIK Taiwan no longer has an official treaty with the US because of Nixon frothing at the mouth of 1 billion mainlanders to buy American goods and sell cheap labour. I still think the expectation of protection is there.
There is little certainty of protection as in troops being sent among the Taiwanese and I think it's more reasonable to act on the principle that will not be the case which is why Taiwan is fairly well-armed. I do think there is an expectation of aid in other respects and collective actions in terms of sanctions and diplomatic maneuvers. I do not think a Chinese invasion is going to be simple or good for anyone and it's greatly more complex because there is no land border. The parts of Taiwan that are easy to invade is essentially the very small islands right off the Chinese coast, but after that, it becomes a lot more difficult and a lot more costly for everyone.
Quote:
Originally Posted by Camlon
There is something in between toothless sanctions and fighting China close to its border.
My opinion is that the USA is likely to setup a sea blockade against China. Then China can either sends ships to the open sea and fight the US Navy close to US military bases or just accept being blockaded and suffer.
Yes, there certainly is. As can be seen with Ukraine, there can be a lot of foreign aid, funds, materiel, intelligence, etc. shared and private citizens are free to volunteer. This happened without any commitments of troops on the ground and they obviously have substantial effects and are not toothless sanctions. Even the sanctions weren't toothless. A good deal of Chinese leadership and business leaders have put a lot of their wealth and goods abroad. A lot of trade with China isn't indispensable and that becomes even more the case with the last two years of onshoring and nearsharing due to pandemic supply chain disruptions and the specters of what happened with Russia, but even before that, the previous few years have seen a lot of foreign businesses in China shift their production to Southeast Asia as Chinese labor become more expensive and the Chinese government more intrusive.
I do not think a naval blockade by the US due to a Chinese invasion is all that likely. I do think a prevention or loosening of a naval blockade by China around Taiwan is very likely though.
There is something in between military assistance and fighting China close to its border.
My opinion is that the USA is likely to setup a sea blockade against China. Then China can either sends ships to the open sea and fight the US Navy close to US military bases or just accept being blockaded and suffer.
You keep bringing up this sea blockade against China. I'm generally curious, how would such a blockade be set up. Are they going to block Chinese ports. Are they going to block ocean straits? How will they evade anti-ship missiles? How will they respond to nations eager to avoid the blockade and continue to sell goods to China. I mean I no naval expert myself but imposing a blockade on a country with a modern navy, massive number of missiles, and extremely long coastline appears rather difficult.
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