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I agree, but I don't think we will manage to provide a message that will actually convince China that we are serious.
Their whole ideology is based on that China is rising, the west is declining and the west is not willing to stand behind it's words. In their mind, China is just waiting for the best opportunity and time, but it could invade at any time and win.
Hence, it is really difficult to convince them that Taiwan will be defended and it will face much worse consequences than some toothless sanctions.
What if we arm any non-nuclear allies of Taiwan in the pacific region to the teeth? Japan, Australia, the Philippines and Canada all should build up our military presence in the Pacific and make it abundantly clear we will send troops the second an invasion happens. South Korea can probably be convinced as well, like they were in Vietnam. The nuclear threat makes it difficult for the US to get involved directly but the domino effect of Taiwan falling to the PLA is too big a catastrophe to ignore. The world as we know it is over if that happens, WW3 and a possible nuclear armageddon. We need to make sure this doesn’t happen, give the CCP no choice but to accept the status quo and renounce the use of force in Taiwan. They can pursue their peaceful reunification forever, but planning to invade and forcibly annex Taiwan can not be tolerated
What if we arm any non-nuclear allies of Taiwan in the pacific region to the teeth? Japan, Australia, the Philippines and Canada all should build up our military presence in the Pacific and make it abundantly clear we will send troops the second an invasion happens. South Korea can probably be convinced as well, like they were in Vietnam. The nuclear threat makes it difficult for the US to get involved directly but the domino effect of Taiwan falling to the PLA is too big a catastrophe to ignore. The world as we know it is over if that happens, WW3 and a possible nuclear armageddon. We need to make sure this doesn’t happen, give the CCP no choice but to accept the status quo and renounce the use of force in Taiwan. They can pursue their peaceful reunification forever, but planning to invade and forcibly annex Taiwan can not be tolerated
I agree that could make them realize that invading Taiwan won't be easy and hence force them to abandoned any invasion plans. It is also why the CCP get so mad when a neighboring country makes a military deal with the USA.
The problem is that we won't do enough, because it is unpopular in the west to spend a lot of money on a potential conflict, when we have to deal with an ongoing conflict with Russia.
what you said about china is maybe 5-10 years ago.
people always look at the "supply" of chinese economy, while missing the crucial "demand" part.
The demand part is pointless if you can't import enough food and energy.
There is simply no way for China to weather the level of sanctions placed on Russia.
Quote:
Originally Posted by pdw
What if we arm any non-nuclear allies of Taiwan in the pacific region to the teeth? Japan, Australia, the Philippines and Canada all should build up our military presence in the Pacific and make it abundantly clear we will send troops the second an invasion happens. South Korea can probably be convinced as well, like they were in Vietnam. The nuclear threat makes it difficult for the US to get involved directly but the domino effect of Taiwan falling to the PLA is too big a catastrophe to ignore. The world as we know it is over if that happens, WW3 and a possible nuclear armageddon. We need to make sure this doesn’t happen, give the CCP no choice but to accept the status quo and renounce the use of force in Taiwan. They can pursue their peaceful reunification forever, but planning to invade and forcibly annex Taiwan can not be tolerated
It's already happening. Japan is increasing its military and working closely with South Korea to coordinate. US is building 3 new bases in Philippines.
As I said, it's highly unlikely that China will invade Taiwan. It's doubtful they have the capability. The costs would destroy their economy.
This is why they are scrambling to expand coal power. They have coal, so they can expand enough to reduce their dependence on oil and gas for energy production.
There is nothing they can do about the food, though. Short of stockpiling, which they are terrible at. They simply do not have the arable land to grow the food they consume. They don't have the resources to produce the fertilizer to match their current food production. What arable land they do have is poor and needs a tremendous amount of inputs to make it produce.
Even given all that, they somehow overcome these problems in, say 20 years time. They will have far more pressing issues by then.
The population collapse and the high number of elderly will wreck the economy they have managed to build.
The lack of water is already creating enormous strains. They have polluted about 50% of their water beyond even industrial uses. All the expensive water projects they have burned money on don't amount to a drop in the bucket of what they need.
Once the population collapse sets in, their fantasy housing market will collapse with it, and that's a huge chunk of their GDP.
Also, they already have a debt of 300% of their GDP. And that's using their phony GDP numbers, which are realistically estimated to be around 60 to 70% of their stated GDP.
China has enough problems already. It would be foolish in the extreme. This might make them do something really stupid, like invade Taiwan in the next 10-15 years, but after that, China will be a paper dragon.
As a Canadian I was never big on military spending, but our economy has grown to surpass Russia’s and the world has their eyes on the Northwest Passage, which is reason alone to fund our military better. I also feel we are much too dependant on the US for our defence and it’s difficult to expect the Americans to single handedly protect all their allies around the world. Canada played a big role in WWII and Korea and we can be a powerful force in the Pacific once again. It’s hard to stomach for our population but we take the freedom we have for granted in a lot of ways. With the political situation in the US it’s highly possible the Americans will be more isolationist in the future and we’ll have no one to protect us from the Russians or Chinese, not to mention our other allies need our support in case something happens.
It's already happening. Japan is increasing its military and working closely with South Korea to coordinate. US is building 3 new bases in Philippines.
As I said, it's highly unlikely that China will invade Taiwan. It's doubtful they have the capability. The costs would destroy their economy.
This is why they are scrambling to expand coal power. They have coal, so they can expand enough to reduce their dependence on oil and gas for energy production.
There is nothing they can do about the food, though. Short of stockpiling, which they are terrible at. They simply do not have the arable land to grow the food they consume. They don't have the resources to produce the fertilizer to match their current food production. What arable land they do have is poor and needs a tremendous amount of inputs to make it produce.
Even given all that, they somehow overcome these problems in, say 20 years time. They will have far more pressing issues by then.
The population collapse and the high number of elderly will wreck the economy they have managed to build.
The lack of water is already creating enormous strains. They have polluted about 50% of their water beyond even industrial uses. All the expensive water projects they have burned money on don't amount to a drop in the bucket of what they need.
Once the population collapse sets in, their fantasy housing market will collapse with it, and that's a huge chunk of their GDP.
Also, they already have a debt of 300% of their GDP. And that's using their phony GDP numbers, which are realistically estimated to be around 60 to 70% of their stated GDP.
China has enough problems already. It would be foolish in the extreme. This might make them do something really stupid, like invade Taiwan in the next 10-15 years, but after that, China will be a paper dragon.
You are saying that they scramble to expand coal power to make themselves energy dependent, but why would they use coal to get energy dependence if they are not planning to invade? No one is going to blockade China unless they do something outrageous like invading Taiwan.
In terms of other problems like food, then they have other options than to expand domestic production. For instance, they could reduce consumption. They are already making steps to put in food kitchens in every community and told them to monitor how much the residents consume. That means China could significantly reduce food consumption by forcing residents to eat at those food kitchens. It is also possible that they can import food from Russia and South Asia.
War have a tendency to make people very tolerant of shortages, and I am sure Chinese nationalists are more than willing to sacrifice for the national security. Hence, I don't think Russia and China is too different, they can both handle years of isolation before the problems become too big to ignore.
And even though China may not be capable of a successful invasion, they might think they are capable and invade regardless. That is what happened to Russia which thought it could win the war in a few weeks. When they realized they couldn't, then they kept putting more resources towards the war as losing would be a national humiliation. China is likely to do the same, and that could be quite dangerous.
I think some people don't know the CCP strategy of invading another country. They use the technique called slicing the salami. They take one parcel of land at a time and before anyone notice they are in your backyard. That's what they have been doing with the islands they stole from nearby countries like Vietnam and the Philippine. And that's what they are doing with Taiwan. First they fly military jet as close to Taiwan' airspace as possible until Taiwan just accepts it as a fact life. Then they will take it a step further and further.
As a Canadian I was never big on military spending, but our economy has grown to surpass Russia’s and the world has their eyes on the Northwest Passage, which is reason alone to fund our military better. I also feel we are much too dependant on the US for our defence and it’s difficult to expect the Americans to single handedly protect all their allies around the world. Canada played a big role in WWII and Korea and we can be a powerful force in the Pacific once again. It’s hard to stomach for our population but we take the freedom we have for granted in a lot of ways. With the political situation in the US it’s highly possible the Americans will be more isolationist in the future and we’ll have no one to protect us from the Russians or Chinese, not to mention our other allies need our support in case something happens.
I agree. Canada should develop a strong MIC and not have to rely on anyone for her defense. The NATO membership should buy Canada plenty of time to develop her defense industries. But if you want the best deterrence, acquire nukes.
I appreciate learning new things and embrace views of others even if theirs differ from mine.
I find it disgusting that we are not at wars yet the lesser minds are forcing everyone to take sides based on their lies.
The first time I heard of this phrase "cutting salami" is here @4:30
Jul 27, 2022
- youtube.com/watch?v=6_dZq3fa2Us
US state department deletes ‘Taiwan is a part of China’ from fact sheet
民視英語新聞 Formosa TV English News
May 10, 2022
The U.S. state department has made some notable revisions to a fact sheet on Taiwan relations. In the updated version, it deleted a sentence that says the U.S. “does not support Taiwan independence.” It also removed an acknowledgment of the Chinese position “that there is but one China and Taiwan is part of China.” This updated version was published on the state department’s website on May 5. It refers to Taiwan as a leading democracy and a technological powerhouse, as well as a key U.S. partner in the Indo-Pacific.
- youtube.com/watch?v=OstbaomFT3k
Strategists admit West is goading China into war
Apr 17, 2022
- youtube.com/watch?v=6N7BljG9Y1c
Strategists admit West is goading China into war.
Apr 17, 2022 https://www.amazon.ca/Strategy-Denia.../dp/0300256434
The Strategy of Denial: American Defense in an Age of Great Power Conflict Hardcover – Sept. 14 2021
by Elbridge A. Colby
As a Canadian I was never big on military spending, but our economy has grown to surpass Russia’s and the world has their eyes on the Northwest Passage, which is reason alone to fund our military better. I also feel we are much too dependant on the US for our defence and it’s difficult to expect the Americans to single handedly protect all their allies around the world. Canada played a big role in WWII and Korea and we can be a powerful force in the Pacific once again. It’s hard to stomach for our population but we take the freedom we have for granted in a lot of ways. With the political situation in the US it’s highly possible the Americans will be more isolationist in the future and we’ll have no one to protect us from the Russians or Chinese, not to mention our other allies need our support in case something happens.
I can assure you no one invades to take freedom away. This is just a convenient line by those in power to get the public supportive of their war efforts. I don't think you need to worry that much. From whom does Canada need protection? I can kind of see Russia due to proximity, but really can't understand why anyone in Canada would need to fear China. Is the issue more about the possibility of Canada being invaded or rather Canada having the ability to project power to protect its economic and political interest? The latter is usually what most Western countries desire. Regardless I'm sure Canada could ramp up its defense spending but doing so would mean devoting less to the social programs the citizens enjoy.
The demand part is pointless if you can't import enough food and energy.
There is simply no way for China to weather the level of sanctions placed on Russia.
It's already happening. Japan is increasing its military and working closely with South Korea to coordinate. US is building 3 new bases in Philippines.
As I said, it's highly unlikely that China will invade Taiwan. It's doubtful they have the capability. The costs would destroy their economy.
This is why they are scrambling to expand coal power. They have coal, so they can expand enough to reduce their dependence on oil and gas for energy production.
There is nothing they can do about the food, though. Short of stockpiling, which they are terrible at. They simply do not have the arable land to grow the food they consume. They don't have the resources to produce the fertilizer to match their current food production. What arable land they do have is poor and needs a tremendous amount of inputs to make it produce.
Even given all that, they somehow overcome these problems in, say 20 years time. They will have far more pressing issues by then.
The population collapse and the high number of elderly will wreck the economy they have managed to build.
The lack of water is already creating enormous strains. They have polluted about 50% of their water beyond even industrial uses. All the expensive water projects they have burned money on don't amount to a drop in the bucket of what they need.
Once the population collapse sets in, their fantasy housing market will collapse with it, and that's a huge chunk of their GDP.
Also, they already have a debt of 300% of their GDP. And that's using their phony GDP numbers, which are realistically estimated to be around 60 to 70% of their stated GDP.
China has enough problems already. It would be foolish in the extreme. This might make them do something really stupid, like invade Taiwan in the next 10-15 years, but after that, China will be a paper dragon.
i don't understand this, where did you get china has any issue with energy and food? china don't have such issue since the 80s
are you talking about taiwan? they would have major issue with energy and food/water issue if china do the blockade.
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