Why is AZ rated as one of ten worst run states? (Phoenix: sales, foreclosure)

[rosco917]

Don't get me wrong I'm a fan of Arizona, I've visited may times and love it. I'm doing everything I can to move... asap.
I understand that the housing crunch has been severe in Az. but to make the top ten worst run states, there has to be more than just that.

[Bondurant]

We do have a horrible governor and horrible elected officials but I would argue most states do. Arizona also incurs the wrath of the left-of-center media that controls most news in the country. Likely the same folks that put out lists like this. It is pretty crappy here, though. Politically speaking.
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[Finger Laker]

Originally Posted by Bondurant

Arizona also incurs the wrath of the left-of-center media that controls most news in the country. Likely the same folks that put out lists like this.

How about looking at the source, the criteria and the other "worse run states" before jumping to that note ........ it's not the mean left leaning media with a vendetta against AZ

Here is a link to the survey

The Best and Worst Run States in America: A Survey of All 50 - 24/7 Wall St.

From the link some talk of what they are trying to accomplish

To determine how well the states are run, 24/7 Wall St. reviewed hundreds of data sets from dozens of sources. We looked at each state’s debt, revenue, expenditure and deficit to determine how well it is managed fiscally. We reviewed taxes, exports, and GDP growth, including a breakdown by sector, to identify how each state is managing its resources. We looked at poverty, income, unemployment, high school graduation, violent crime and foreclosure rates to measure if residents are prospering.

The best-run states have certain characteristics in common, as do the worst run. The high-ranking states all have well-managed budgets. Each of the top ten has a perfect, or near-perfect, credit rating from Standard & Poor’s, Moody’s, or both. Of the ten worst-ranked, only three received top scores from one agency, and none from both. California is currently the only state rated A- by S&P, the lowest score given to any state. These poor-ranked states have high debt relative to both income and expenditure.

There is a strong correlation between well-educated populations and generally well-managed states. Of the ten best-scoring states on our list, nine have among the highest percentages of adults with high school diplomas.

Employment is also closely correlated to how well a state is managed. The unemployment rates of most of the poorly ranked states are among the highest in the country. Nine of the ten best-ranked states had an unemployment rate of less than 7% in 2011. This includes North Dakota, which had the lowest rate in the country in 2011, at just 3.6%. The average unemployment rate nationwide was 8.9% in 2011.

The top 10 run states are according to their survey:

1. North Dakota
   
2. Wyoming
3. Nebraska
4. Utah
5. Iowa
6. Alaska
7. South Dakota
8. Vermont
9. Virginia
10. Minnesota

The worst 10 run states according to their survey:

1. California
2. Rhode Island
3. Illinois
4. Arizona
5. New Jersey
6. Nevada
7. New Mexico
8. South Carolina
9. Florida
10. Louisiana

Here is what they say specific to AZ

[LEFT]47. Arizona
> Debt per capita: $2,188 (12th lowest)
> Budget deficit: 39.0% (3rd largest)
> Unemployment: 9.5% (tied-13th highest)
> Median household income: $46,709 (21st lowest)
> Pct. below poverty line: 19.0% (tied-8th highest)

Between 2006 and 2011, the value of homes in Arizona tumbled by 35%, more than every state except for Nevada. The state also had the nation’s second-highest foreclosure rate in 2011, with one in every 24 homes in foreclosure. In the aftermath of the financial crisis, Arizona had some of the nation’s largest budget shortfalls. In fiscal 2010, the state had a shortfall of $5.1 billion, equal to 65% of its general fund. In fiscal 2011, Arizona’s budget deficit was 39.0% of its general fund, the third-highest in the nation. In the recent state elections, residents voted on several measures intended to shore up the state’s finances. Voters rejected the continuation of a sales tax hike, while approving the restructuring of the state’s property tax assessment system.

A lot of their measures are tied to the impact of the housing bubble - couple that with the unrelated overall poor education climate and the general buffoonery with elected officials it doesn't rank so great when applied to their metrics

Here is the more advanced data set for AZ

Arizona - 24/7 Wall St.[/LEFT]

AZ has a better average GDP growth (1.5% to 1.1%), worse than average percentage of residents without health insurance (17.2% to 14.2%), worse than average change in home prices (-35% to 2%), worse average adult HS graduates (85.7% to 88.1%), worse average 2011 poverty rate (19% to 14.8%) and better average debt per capita ($2,188 to $3,416)

[observer53]

Thanks, Finger Laker, for the detailed information about what was actually surveyed.

[Hawknest]

Let's see:


9.5% unemployment
19% below poverty line

Between 2006 and 2011, the value of homes dropped 35% - more than every state except Nevada
In fiscal 2010 the state had a shortfall of $5.1B = to 65% of its general fund.
Voters rejected a continuation of the sales tax hike, which approving restructuring of the property tax system

[Bondurant]

Originally Posted by Finger Laker

How about looking at the source, the criteria and the other "worse run states" before jumping to that note ........ it's not the mean left leaning media with a vendetta against AZ

Here is a link to the survey

The Best and Worst Run States in America: A Survey of All 50 - 24/7 Wall St.

There was no source provided. For all I knew it was another one of the lame Yahoo posts and I did use the word "likely". I did not declare a statement of fact as to the source.

[Ponderosa]

Things change. AZ now has a budget surplus and home prices rose faster than any other state in the country over the last year.

As for them falling in the first place, well let's not forget that they went up more than any place in the country except Nevada in the boom as well. They corrected from a rather lofty and unsustainable perch.

Unemployment is now 8.2, I think and it is lower than that in the Phoenix area where most of the population lives.

[rosco917]

Does anyone know what Arizona'a state and municipal pension liabilities are? To what percent are they funded?

[Burning Madolf]

Originally Posted by rosco917

Don't get me wrong I'm a fan of Arizona, I've visited may times and love it. I'm doing everything I can to move... asap.
I understand that the housing crunch has been severe in Az. but to make the top ten worst run states, there has to be more than just that.

1) The "survey" doesn't explain weighting of items
2) How could they not mention more prominently the HUGE issue of un-funded and under funded pension and retiree health care obligations?
E.G. PA is #20 with a bankrupt capital, $47 billion in un funded pension obligations and $17 billion in un funded retiree health care obligations. Go figure. I'll take AZ's situation over that any day.

[Potential_Landlord]

Originally Posted by Finger Laker

The Best and Worst Run States in America: A Survey of All 50 - 24/7 Wall St.


AZ has a better average GDP growth (1.5% to 1.1%), worse than average percentage of residents without health insurance (17.2% to 14.2%), worse than average change in home prices (-35% to 2%), worse average adult HS graduates (85.7% to 88.1%), worse average 2011 poverty rate (19% to 14.8%) and better average debt per capita ($2,188 to $3,416)

Thanks to finger laker for the explanation. I think that we truly went through a very exceptional situation in the last ten years, so I would have like to see a longer time period for the evaluation.
Again, when I compare to my wife's family in upstate New York, I must admit that Arizona was much harder hit by the downturn, RE and otherwise. I wonder what the explanation is. For example, New York is actually losing residents and property taxes are much higher, yet home prices are more stable than in Arizona and the difference is going up further to the advantage of New York. I wonder where that comes from and it cannot all be Wall Street, particularly in upstate New York. The region was also hard-hit by GE's downsizing.