The Albuquerque Economy and Employment thread (Santa Fe, Rio Rancho: real estate, apartment, mortgage)

[Champ le monstre du lac]

I am trying to wrap my mind around what makes the economy in Albuquerque and the state of New Mexico tick. We are at the end of 2011 going into 2012 and looking at charts for 2011 the city and state have unemployment percentages fairly well below the national average.

-The city/metro of Albuquerque hovered around 7%, http://www.bls.gov/eag/eag.nm_albuquerque_msa.htm
-Santa Fe around 5-6%, http://www.bls.gov/eag/eag.nm_santafe_msa.htm
-The state of New Mexico between 6-7%. New Mexico registered the largest jobless rate decrease since November 2010 (http://www.bls.gov/news.release/laus.nr0.htm).
-While nationally it's around 9% which a marginal drop in the last quarter of the year http://www.bls.gov/cps/

There are many components I realize. Big players like Intel in Rio Rancho, and a heavyweight being government tied to Sandia Labs/Los Alamos/Kirtland AFB and little components like the film industry. I wonder how secure the government jobs are with the deficit. How are the service industries doing? Will state government jobs be rolled back? Will there be any growth industries? Energy perhaps (solar/wind/natural gas extraction)?

I've seen tid bits and inquiries regarding the economy and jobs for Albuquerque and New Mexico on here but wanted to have a common thread to build on and keep a discussion going. I realize that in comparison to growth in Arizona and Nevada that New Mexico is much more stable as the real estate bubble did not inflate quite as bad, though there are big plans (in progress or stalling?) on the horizon like Mesa del Sol. How do you feel about growth projections and the economy in the city and the state? I realize it may be difficult to make concrete predictions but how do you feel its doing presently and where is it heading?

[Champ le monstre du lac]

On a side note what inspired me to create this thread was this one: If cities were stocks...A lot of discussion regarding the phenominal growth in Washington DC recently and some forecasting the bubble bursting within the next 2-3 years. Some food for thought. So what if Albuquerque were a stock option?

Also Albuquerque is ranked 19 within the top quintile of economic security of the top 100 MSA's in the country (http://datatools.metrotrends.org/cha...es/rankMap.cfm) - (MetroTrends: Economic security of the 100 largest MSAs)

[cglore]

While I have not read this report, rating that high is puzzling since apparently Albq has added no new jobs at all in the past year. I don't understand how that situation translates to economic security.

[rwjoyak]

Originally Posted by cglore

While I have not read this report, rating that high is puzzling since apparently Albq has added no new jobs at all in the past year. I don't understand how that situation translates to economic security.

The site indicates it is focused on "how much economic security they (each metro area) offer families in these tough times." The rankings reflect erosion in house values, current unemployment, purchasing power of a low-wage job (also labeled as housing unaffordability), and the rate of serious mortgage delinquencies.

Not a report but a map with rankings for the top 100 metros in the country. Doesn't take hardly any time to look at.

Thanks, caphillsea77, very interesting site. Most of the top ranked metros are in the midwest, which makes intuitive sense given their economic underpinnings. Also looks like the most significant differentiator between the metors is erosion of house values. So ABQ's ranking reflects, among other stats, that our housing prices haven't eroded nearly as much as in many other metros.

[cglore]

Got it. Now if Albq. can start adding jobs it will be sitting in a pretty nice spot - had no idea the west coast was still in such bad shape.

[Champ le monstre du lac]

So I guess the best way to describe the economy there is not exactly thriving or booming (like North Dakota) but not struggling too bad either (like Las Vegas). Stable, perhaps. I'm just wondering at the very least if it can maintain the relatively low number over the next few years. But I guess that depends on the condition of the national economy which is very unpredictable at this point, so I digress.

[Burquebinder]

I can't say for sure about the jobs market, but the housing market appears to be stabilizing somewhat, although I don't think we will see any sort of housing boom like we witnessed in ABQ between 2000-2007 (and even ABQ growth was tempered compared to places such as Vegas).

That said, Mesa Del Sol has just resumed its housing development. I'm thinking though that Mesa Del Sol will absorb much of the new-housing growth over the next 10 years, meaning I don't expect much more sprawl (compared to the last 10 years) on the west/northwest sides anytime soon. I would however, expect to see an apartment building boom at some point, as much of the country is seeing now.

[NMHacker]

Reported on the Radio that NM (ie..Albuquerque) had a positive increase in Jobs last year. Modest but positive . Had been 3 years of negative job losses.

[abqcd]

Originally Posted by caphillsea77

I am trying to wrap my mind around what makes the economy in Albuquerque and the state of New Mexico tick.

Two words: government spending. For every $1.00 you pay in federal income tax, $2.18 cents come back to NM. No other state comes close.

[Zoidberg]

Originally Posted by abqcd

Two words: government spending. For every $1.00 you pay in federal income tax, $2.18 cents come back to NM. No other state comes close.

Not quite accurate.

According to last August's economist, NM receives $2.73 per dollar taxed. Puerto Rico receives $3.47, and West Virginia receives $2.51 (requires you to do a little math based on the chart's numbers).

Note the correlation between red states and blue states and the attached graph. Seems both political parties tend to achieve results counter to their reputations.