Wow, Conor Lamb is going to lose big (Washington, Braddock: appointed, how much)

[jtab4994]

As a Republican I assumed Conor Lamb would win the Democrat nomination for Senator today (May 17, 2022). So about a week ago I was surprised to see Fetterman way out in front.

Lamb, as a moderate, would have been all but unbeatable, even against moderate Dr. Oz, because of Oz's endorsement by Trump. But with extreme Left Wing Fetterman, unless Kathy Barnett gets nominated by the Republicans, there is probably no chance.

How did this fly under the radar? I am inundated by TV and radio ads for a plethora of candidates but I never saw one for Lamb or Fetterman. Was Conor Lamb not really trying? Today I'm hearing that Bernie endorsed Fetterman but other than that, I don't know what big name Democrats endorsed either guy.

[Tweb66]

I expect Fetterman to win but I think it will be closer than what some may think. Polling has been very scarce. Totally anecdotal I know but in my uber liberal neighborhood, there are a lot more Lamb than Fetterman signs. So who knows. Also, keep in mind that Malcolm Kenyatta will likely pull in some far left votes that would otherwise go for Fetterman. My prediction:


Fetterman 50%
Lamb 42%
Kenyatta 8%


Also interested (if you are a nerd like me) in all of NW Philly, Lou Barletta has the most signs. But they are almost exclusively along public roads, not private residents. Same thing happened in 2018. What the heck, I will handicap the GOP side too.


Senate

Oz: 28%
Barnett: 25%
McCormick 20%
Others: 27%


Gov
Mastriano: 40%
Barletta: 34%
Others: 26%
I know a few candidates dropped out but they will all still be on the ballot.

[Jessie Mitchell]

Looks for sure like it'll be Fetterman. I voted for Lamb, but of course will vote for Fetterman if he's the D candidate in the general election. I agree, though, that we (Dems) may just lose a winnable seat with this primary outcome. Fingers crossed crazy Kathy Barnett wins on the R side, that may be the only hope.

[Duderino]

I think many Dems see Lamb as a bit milquetoast. Fetterman has celebrity status, even nationally.

Also, do people really think a TV doctor that literally just carpetbagged his way to PA from New Jersey is a viable senate candidate, here?

I'd also love to be proven wrong, but Republicans don't exactly have the best track record of supporting individuals of non-Christian faith.

In any event, we're not talking about completely flawless candidates here. It will be a very interesting general election--that much is for sure.

[Jessie Mitchell]

Originally Posted by Duderino

I think many Dems see Lamb as a bit milquetoast. Fetterman has celebrity status, even nationally.

Also, do people really think a TV doctor that literally just carpetbagged his way to PA from New Jersey is a viable senate candidate, here?

I'd also love to be proven wrong, but Republicans don't exactly have the best track record of supporting individuals of non-Christian faith.

In any event, we're not talking about completely flawless candidates here. It will be a very interesting general election--that much is for sure.

I wish Madeleine Dean had decided to run. I think she would have been a great candidate, have appeal to both moderates and progressives, and she's from a safe D district so, if she won, her replacement in the House would be a Dem. Lamb's district is iffier, was a surprise a D won it at all. He'd likely be okay to get re-elected as an incumbent.

And, yes, to me Oz is a joke, but he has a lot of TV appeal, and as you said about Fetterman, the celebrity factor is a thing. (Unfortunately.) If he can get through the R primary he will have an easy path to pivot to the moderate R mold and i think beat Fetterman who will be branded as a commie or some such stupid thing. Trump-to-Biden voters would choose him over Fetterman, I'm pretty certain. Those are the voters that will determine the outcome here, especially in a mid-term when young voters have a historically dismal turnout.

I also worry about Fetterman's ability to turn out black voters, another key bloc.

Now, if we get lucky and Barnett wins on the R side, then Fetterman has an opening to pivot to the middle a bit, to be the sensible candidate instead of the firebrand.

But... we shall see.

[Tweb66]

https://www.inquirer.com/politics/el...ard-1434159818
"Danielle Means, 26, a lifelong Mount Airy resident, had been a Fetterman supporter, but ultimately changed her mind following his stroke. Means, who is a caretaker for her grandmother who survived two strokes and COVID, voted for Conor Lamb in the Democratic senate primary. She was following the suggestion from recommended ballot she received from local committeepeople.
“He’s young,” she said of Lamb. “He’s probably like the John Edwards of Pennsylvania right now.”



LOL, wut? I will assume she didn't finish reading his wikipedia page.

[Jessie Mitchell]

This health issue for Fetterman has come up so late I wonder how much effect it could really have, especially when the polling showed him with such a massive lead. If it was really really tight, then maybe, but with a big lead... I just doubt it will be determinative. But maybe?? I voted over a week ago.

I'd seen some pretty great, impassioned floor speeches in the US House by Lamb. I am surprised and disappointed he turned out to be a pretty insipid campaigner. I saw his early ads and they were so generic they could have been in support of almost anyone. Bad campaign advisors, I guess, but it's his race. He'd be the one in charge, so his failure ultimately. That said, I did vote for him.

[MarketStEl]

I think that some of you are underestimating Fetterman's ability to speak to the denizens of the Land of the Forgotten, especially the counties around Allegheny that have been hit hardest by the downfall of steelmaking.

Those counties voted for Obama twice, then swung hard for Trump, and voted for him again in 2020.

Fetterman was the mayor of one such community. Braddock, however, is in Allegheny County itself, so may have been less susceptible to the red tide.

But to the extent that his persona meshes well with those of the residents of this region, I do expect him to cut into the GOP margins there, no matter which one wins the Senate nomination. Especially since he avoids the culture-war stuff — and because many of the social-welfare programs he champions are actually popular with many voters.

And if he cuts into them deeply enough, we could end up electing the most progressive Democrat ever to represent Pennsylvania in Washington to succeed the most conservative Republican we ever sent to Washington. Odds of this rise greatly if Barnette wins, but they're also pretty high if Oz wins, given his baggage.

[NewtownBucks]

Don't underestimate Fetterman. Many of the things he was branded as "far left" for, like legalization, are now mainstream. He's a real salt of the earth guy. He'll draw in more people than you think.

[North Beach Person]

Fetterman's stroke shows just how ill-conceived early voting can turn out to be. What if he'd been incapacitated from it and wins the primary on the strength of early votes?

I'm assuming with the above question that he wins the primary as it looks like he will.

One of our Senators suffered a stroke a few days ago and, as of last night, was still hospitalized. Now, he's not running for reelection this year but it could have been a similar situation.