Please register to participate in our discussions with 2 million other members - it's free and quick! Some forums can only be seen by registered members. After you create your account, you'll be able to customize options and access all our 15,000 new posts/day with fewer ads.
This is the third time the market has been at these highs since 2000. We saw these levels in 2000, 2007, and now in 2013 these same highs are being tested. The S&P 500 peaked near 1520 in 2000, it peaked at about 1560 in 2007, and here it is again at those same levels in 2013. After each of the last two peaks the market has turned down aggressively too, so another logical question is if that process will repeat itself as well. After each of the prior two spikes the S&P fell to about 800.
Wiping out significant wealth for not only the wealthiest 1%, but also for investors of all types, retirement plans, and college savings accounts that were heavily invested in the markets.
--------------------------------------------------------
So, for those long term, never sell, holders, who bought in the 1990's and watched it all go away in and after 2000, and in and after 2007, are you wanting to see it all disappear again?
The SP500 contains top companies that make money and produce a profit. If these 500 stop producing a profit we are all screwed. I don't retire til 30 years from now.
Ok, I see, you have no historical understanding of stock markets. Better hope you are right.
--------------------------------------------------------
So, for those long term, never sell, holders, who bought in the 1990's and watched it all go away in and after 2000, and in and after 2007, are you wanting to see it all disappear again?
Well if you keep your money in the stock market forever, do you even have it? Last thing I would want to do is die with 10mm in the market while living like a pauper. Like I said at some point you will have to start liquidating your assets, wether it be tomorrow, or in 40 years for retirement.
The point about the indices not including dividends is critically important. The contention that the market is today where it was in 2007 and 2000 is off target. If you invested $10k in a S&P 500 index fund in 2000, you'd have over $12.5k now. That's not great returns but it is a return. By the same token, you could find stable value funds that provide greater returns. It all comes down to whether you believe the last ten years have been unusual, or are the blueprint for the future.
If you invested $10k in a S&P 500 index fund in 2000, you'd have over $12.5k now. That's not great returns but it is a return.
Yes, but you would have been stressing for way too long with that ride, waiting for prices to go back up after 2008 (assuming you invested after the crash of 2000). I prefer not to deal with that kind of stress. I'd rather sell when I make a decent profit, i.e., after prices have been rallying for a while. Then I get back in when prices drop again.
The problem with that idea is that most of the most qualified experts fail to pick the right time to buy and to sell and non-experts aren't going to do even that well. An argument based on historical evidence and risk tolerance can be made for avoiding the market entirely, I suppose, but not for market timing.
The point about the indices not including dividends is critically important.
Just reiterating. So many people talk like they've never held a stock long enough to receive a dividend.
It speaks well to the point (long101) made about not having access to your money. $10M paying a 4% dividend is $400,000 per year at favorable, unearned tax rates - a far cry from life as a pauper.
The problem with that idea is that most of the most qualified experts fail to pick the right time to buy and to sell and non-experts aren't going to do even that well.An argument based on historical evidence and risk tolerance can be made for avoiding the market entirely...but not for market timing.
Expert traders at the largest banks and institutions make money by timing the market and getting in when the probability of being right is high. They time via: 1) relying on technical analysis, which is mostly reviewing historical prices & overbought/oversold conditions, and 2) managing risk with stops & hedging.
Fundamentals are secondary on the trading floor.
I'm not sure how else do you think they make money?
Last edited by Sage 80; 01-31-2013 at 11:00 AM..
Please register to post and access all features of our very popular forum. It is free and quick. Over $68,000 in prizes has already been given out to active posters on our forum. Additional giveaways are planned.
Detailed information about all U.S. cities, counties, and zip codes on our site: City-data.com.
Please register to participate in our discussions with 2 million other members - it's free and quick! Some forums can only be seen by registered members. After you create your account, you'll be able to customize options and access all our 15,000 new posts/day with fewer ads.
Better hope you are right.
